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Pattern Jarring January

DadOfJax said:
Big snows don't happen in AL with temps that are that cold. Air would be so dry that it might snow a foot but we never see a flake. Need to see moisture with temps in the upper 20's.
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North Al has seen several good snows with temps below 25.. Jan '11, March '93...others
 
Stormlover said:
the temp shown is after the snow, very logical
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My bad...looked at timing wrong. Either way, EXTREMELY unlikely to see those temps.

Webberweather53 said:
Even if there's a decent snow cover after the next few storms over the coming week or so the GFS verbatim would still be too cold again due to its surface parameterization issues
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Truer words have never been spoken.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even if there's a decent snow cover after the next few storms over the coming week or so the GFS verbatim would still be too cold again due to its surface parameterization issues
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Does CMC have these issues? It had a pretty cold run today
 
DadOfJax said:
LOL....You named the 2 systems that most people will see once in a lifetime around here...
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Not at all unusual for temps to plummet after a snow though, that's what we are talking about, you are doubting the temps after the snow with clear skies and light winds..they will hit rock bottom
 
Tarheel1 said:
Does CMC have these issues? It had a pretty cold run today
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I notice a similar bias in the CMC which is often worse however I've yet to discover what the source(s) if its bias are. Even the employment of the bias corected version of the GFS failed to fix many of the issues that still apparently will haunt the model even after its MO surface paramterization is modified
 
No go on the Euro for New Years Eve/Day storm. Nothing, nada.
 
Im not worried to much right now with Euro, CMC GFS has it. Lets hope Euro will show eventually.
 
naw:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png
 
The 0Z EPS mean has hardly anything for anytime around New Year's. Of course, with its W to WNW H5 flow, it makes sense for it to be dry. WSW flow would be much wetter. The good news is that it looks a touch colder 12/31-1/1. So, cold dry fans should be happy. I don't mind cold and dry, especially vs warm.

Regardless, I'm taking anything past 3 days, good or bad, with a huge grain due to recent horrible model performance. So, I won't even talk about anything after New Year's as even talking about that is giving too much credibility to models.
 
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Well, the GFS looks awesome. But with what is happening now with the 28th and 29th storm, it's hard to trust it. Especially with Euro being more suppressed, which is what all the other models are turning out now with the 28th and 29th storm.
 
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