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Pattern January thread part deux

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Storm5 said:
for this freaking out and canceling winter the 12z gefs looks nothing like the gfs op . and is actually very interesting days 8-12

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Winter cancelling is probably silly, for us less educated dummies! But here we are still hunting 8-12 day storms and that puts us into early Feb! A snipe hunt
 
Tarheel1 said:
Winter cancelling is probably silly, for us less educated dummies! But here we are still hunting 8-12 day storms and that puts us into early Feb! A snipe hunt
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it's the SE we are always hunting storms. People are canceling winter because they see random op runs that look bad or ensembles that hint at a warmup before we cool again . there is no reason to freak out or cancel winter . And know one is a dummy lol. people saying winter is over over a month early is nothing new. happens every year

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Storm5 said:
yep, winter cancel posts in January are nothing other than ignorant . I guess people love to troll over a wakcked out OP run and they clearly don't look at ensembles .

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Lol, I've had two deep snows down here from ULL's toward the end of March in the last 10 years. Cancelling winter before April 1st is just plain silly...that is if you just like looking at snow. Can't do anything with warm melty snow, but look at it. But it was there, twice in 3 years, and I looked at it :) I guess it's all it what satisfies the individual. I'd rather have two inches of sleet in Feb freeze down , than 8 inches of melting snow at the end of March, but I'll take both, because either is so rare, as must needs be enjoyed! T
 
Here in Birmingham back in 2009 we had a winter like this one with no snow and in the middle of march we had a ULL come thru and dropped 4 inches. Winter isnt done untl mid March Id say
 
I've seen snow in April, it went from thunder storms to heavy wet snow and some thunder snow. That doesn't happen to often though. I want to say this happened in 2004 I could be wrong. I know it was in the early 2000s.

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Storm5 said:
yep, winter cancel posts in January are nothing other than ignorant . I guess people love to troll over a wakcked out OP run and they clearly don't look at ensembles .

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i am sick of seeing those posted. It should result in a suspension until spring, lol
 
Stormlover said:
i am sick of seeing those posted. It should result in a suspension until spring, lol
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If nothing else, they belong in the Banter thread.
This Board is so refreshing and has so much to offer knowledge-wise - I wish posting-egos would appreciate that.

Now - back to weather :D
 
pcbjr said:
If nothing else, they belong in the Banter thread.
This Board is so refreshing and has so much to offer knowledge-wise - I wish posting-egos would appreciate that.

Now - back to weather :D
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I would agree... please keep it on topic and if you must lament about the warmth or think winter will never return then do so in the banter/venting thread. Thank you..... carry on

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nice 12z eps run. 2-3 day " warmer " period then headed right back into a colder pattern with a ridge bridge over top
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no shock that the 18z gfs is 100 percent different at H5 vs 12z

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SimeonNC said:
The entire SE board on the other forum seems to be in winter cancel mode. :p
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Dude - That's why I moved over here (in part) - I still post over there a good bit, but the manners and objective thinking here are so much nicer/better/less full of self ...
 
lol, goofy tries again with a massive cutter bomb, this one doesn't phase though, I think.

I don't mind this overall look on the GFS, there's no winter storm and the system we've been looking at is even more suppressed but it's not bad IMO.
 
The winter cancel statement makes you sound like you have dominance over the weather. The "Winter canceled" statement is, so illogical. Let's be realistic and stop asking siri if winter is over.



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Looking at the 18z GFS ensemble, the ridge out west is a good placement. The ridge out in the Atlantic is what is causing the suppression. The ridge needs to be more north and west to allow the trough over the east to dip down more. Not too far north and west though, this would allow for suppression too.

As you go through the frames late month you can see that the ridge out in the Atlantic bulges to the north and west some. By the time it does, the 18z GFS has a low poping up out in the Atlantic. We may still get a storm during late month or even in early Feb. It just depends on the ridge out in the Atlantic.
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