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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

Well, I appear to be getting my low in the gulf from at least some of these giggle water model runs, and now I just need some reinforcing cold air to come into play, and I get my sleet storm. It's still evolving, lots still possible, if improbable.
 
dsaur said:
Well, I appear to be getting my low in the gulf from at least some of these giggle water model runs, and now I just need some reinforcing cold air to come into play, and I get my sleet storm. It's still evolving, lots still possible, if improbable.
Click to expand...

All we need to do is readjust where that magical reappearing HP is and maybe the LP doesn't dive to Cuba.
 
GFS sun night/mon am
gfs_6hr_snow_acc_birmingham_22.png
 
Well 06z NAM says : "have some redundant moisture, while i let northerly winds in the upper atmosphere send my cutoff self down south on vactation."
 
Huntsville NWS isn't impressed. They actually decreased precipitation chances . Says the air is extremely dry and most of what the nam is showing won't reach the ground
 
NC needs to pay attention. 12z GFS brings light precip into much of western 2/3's of NC. While temps "may" creep above freezing, the ground is frozen is most all of the state. Therefore, ZR is likely even with above freezing temps. The impact would be much more on auto and pedestrian traffic rather than the power grid (unless qpf increases quite a bit).
TW
 
GFS and the GEM both have some front end wintry precip on the 12z from E AL and points E and N. Again nothing major just something to look at if you like wintry precip.

Edit also mention RGEM and end of it's timeframe but show's same situation at surface, 850/500mb levels and precip

... Carry on
 
Just something that's gonna have to be tracked closely because if models bust on wrong side of timing or how precip holds together impact will raise significantly with temps
 
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