Side note Euro has another storm just north of the islands late in the period
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Tropical Hurricane Jose
- Thread starter Webberweather53
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Yeah i noticed that, and the upper level pattern thanks in part to the recurvature of Talim in the western Pacific is unfavorable-very unfavorable to early recurvatures in the central-western Atlantic with a monster ridge sitting over southeastern Canada, a feature that's often prevalent during tropical cyclone landfalls on the US...
New cone is not as hard of a turn. The NE may end up getting trouble if there is a trend this way.
From NHC..... "The official track forecast is similar to its predecessor and is about in the middle of the reliable guidance suite."New cone is not as hard of a turn. The NE may end up getting trouble if there is a trend this way.
and this would be?? Lol
It's grasping at anything, but perhaps the NHC is waiting to see how the models look after the loop completes instead of throwing the US into freak out mode early.
The highly amplified pattern over the North Pacific-North American sectors late next week is traceable back to the recurvature of Talim in the Western Pacific... Unlike Sanvu, NWP models have become more impressed with Talim and his extratropical transition the next several days and this has major implications downstream. The excess heat and momentum deposition onto the right entrance region of the Pacific jet from Talim is effectively helping to excite a rapidly eastward propagating packet of Rossby Waves that ultimately results in large scale ridging over southeastern Canada and New England. This ridge that becomes highly amplified as the Rossby Wave packet nears, and halts the progress of Jose OTS forcing him back towards New England & the Mid Atlantic. We need to closely monitor the progress of Talim's extratropical transition and impact on the midlatitude waveguide (jet stream), because this could impact the steering pattern around Jose and potentially any other TCs that to try form in the east-central Atlantic within the next week or so
that's more than slightSlight adjustment
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Keeps inching closer to ec
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I'm starting to think somewhere between midatlantic and NE going to be dealing with Jose, GFS trends...
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NHC acknowledging westward shift...
Since the guidance has shifted left, the new official track forecast is west of the previous one, but now lays on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. I would prefer to see more run to run consistency before committing to a farther left track at this time
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Since the guidance has shifted left, the new official track forecast is west of the previous one, but now lays on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. I would prefer to see more run to run consistency before committing to a farther left track at this time
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Yeah the outflow induced (via Irma) upper level ridge north of Jose is stronger than forecast, what a shocker... Not.
DVORAK satellite estimates look to have Jose center south of NHC track.....
DVORAK satellite estimates look to have Jose center south of NHC track.....
Lol yea that's south of the NHC track by ~0.3 degrees... Ouch.
Down to a TS now, but the cone is much further west. Looking a bit more likely of a possible scrape or landfall.
As metwannabe alluded to earlier, Jose is tracking well to the south of the GFS, CMC, ECMWF, and even the UKMET's 6-12 hour forecast points at the moment, wouldn't be surprised if NWP shifts west yet again at 12z as a result...
