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Tropical Ex-Invest 96L

A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
expected to move quickly westward during the next several days.
Some slow development is possible late this week and over the
weekend when the system is several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
 
12z GFS brings it back but so far the door looks open for it to exit stage right. Maybe landfall in North Carolina if anything I think but the open door looks wider then it did with Dorian.
 
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Should remain offshore in this run of model cartoons but it's taking it's sweet time...

Edit: Finally begins to turn away at hour 300. Took forever to.
 
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strong -NAO, blocking ridge above the storm, if the trough In the central US was a bit more west and not slowly moving it’s way East, than this would take a sandyish type path, ofc it’s 300+ hours out so H5 looks a little bit wonky anyways CAAACE58-01C2-4F90-9A66-1245B11C0038.jpeg
 
stormcentral said:
I saw a post on twitter have to check again sorry just reposting what was posted by a meteorlogist Logan Poole
Click to expand...
No worries...just curious. I always try and pay attention to whether or not the warm layer is shallow. It'll be easier to turn over and cool down, especially if the storm is moving slower.
 
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible over the
weekend when the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Though just a weak low, the 12Z Euro is in an unsafe position with regard to the CONUS: Hispaniola at hour 192 and getting underneath the right side of a big ridge. Let's see how this run ends. Will it still be able to escape?

Meanwhile, this is causing a huge flooding problem for the Dom. Rep.

Edit: At day 10 this ends up in the SE Bahamas moving slowly NW due to being trapped at that point by a big ridge to its north. There's no telling whether or not it would then go all the way to the CONUS but I wouldn't be comfy in that position. Maybe the 12Z EPS will shed some light on this.
 
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CMC further south-west and almost misses the shredder before heading to Cuba. Just too soon...I think a weaker system would have a better chance of getting further west into the Gulf.
 
GaWx said:
Though just a weak low, the 12Z Euro is in an unsafe position with regard to the CONUS: Hispaniola at hour 192 and getting underneath the right side of a big ridge. Let's see how this run ends. Will it still be able to escape?

Meanwhile, this is causing a huge flooding problem for the Dom. Rep.

Edit: At day 10 this ends up in the SE Bahamas moving slowly NW due to being trapped at that point by a big ridge to its north. There's no telling whether or not it would then go all the way to the CONUS but I wouldn't be comfy in that position. Maybe the 12Z EPS will shed some light on this.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this is way out but it's not a good look for the SE:

Euro_EC_2019-09-10_12Z_FHr240_WM.png
 
mrdaddyman said:
Yeah, this is way out but it's not a good look for the SE:

View attachment 23346
Click to expand...

At 240, the 12Z EPS is centered all around the 12Z Euro's position and the mean has a similarly positioned ridge to its N and NW. So, I'm now going to see where the members go from there. This will give us a good hint at where the Euro would have gone after 240.
 
GaWx said:
Though just a weak low, the 12Z Euro is in an unsafe position with regard to the CONUS: Hispaniola at hour 192 and getting underneath the right side of a big ridge. Let's see how this run ends. Will it still be able to escape?

Meanwhile, this is causing a huge flooding problem for the Dom. Rep.

Edit: At day 10 this ends up in the SE Bahamas moving slowly NW due to being trapped at that point by a big ridge to its north. There's no telling whether or not it would then go all the way to the CONUS but I wouldn't be comfy in that position. Maybe the 12Z EPS will shed some light on this.
Click to expand...

Yeah, very ominous at H5. Looks like the difference between the Euro and the GFS is where the system is when the ridge begins to build overhead.
 
GaWx said:
At 240, the 12Z EPS is centered all around the 12Z Euro's position and the mean has a similarly positioned ridge to its N and NW. So, I'm now going to see where the members go from there. This will give us a good hint at where the Euro would have gone after 240.
Click to expand...

The verdict is in. Almost 25% (12) either hit or are a clear CONUS threat: 5 in Gulf, ~6 SE US, 1 NE US. Most of the other ~75% recurve well east of the US. So, a recurve east of the CONUS continues to be the most favored outcome per model consensus by a pretty good margin. This has been the case for several days and it is holding. Hopefully, that is a good sign. But 25% is still way too high for comfort and model biases may mean that the 25% rises later.
 
Happy Hour GFS should be an easy recurve from the CONUS per its 192 position.
 
happy hour GFS is another big change at H5, exactly why I can’t believe it lol, trough digs a bit more in the western Atlantic allowing a opening
 
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