As long as that trough is there this "hurricane" will go OTS.
Edit: Uh oh high gets further enough south that it makes a left.View attachment 23355
As long as that trough is there this "hurricane" will go OTS.
Edit: Uh oh high gets further enough south that it makes a left.View attachment 23355
happy hour GFS is another big change at H5, exactly why I can’t believe it lol, trough digs a bit more in the western Atlantic allowing a opening
On Pivotal, the Legacy turns out to be nothing.Im not believing anything that has a deep trough in the east until like 84hrs out. I do not need my heart broken.
Speaking of crazy happy hour runs, the Real GFS has a very interesting solution at the end of its run.
What a dance....Im not believing anything that has a deep trough in the east until like 84hrs out. I do not need my heart broken.
Speaking of crazy happy hour runs, the Real GFS has a very interesting solution at the end of its run.
On Pivotal, the Legacy turns out to be nothing.
Wow I don’t know what it is but these last couple of years seem like storms like to Stall more often.0z GFS brings another idea to the table. Weaker, further south, goes over Hispaniola as a minimal tropical storm, then just sits there and spins south of Florida for 24 hours while strengthening some. Moved slowly before then too.
Euro either hits extreme south FL or Cuba and would be gulf bound. Big change there.
I'm not Larry, nor do I have his expertise, but I can shed some light on this question. EPS has TCs from the Gulf to Bermuda at day 10:
View attachment 23372
06z GPS, your Gulf warning is heard. Michael 2.0......although further south in Florida....The verdict is in. Almost 25% (12) either hit or are a clear CONUS threat: 5 in Gulf, ~6 SE US, 1 NE US. Most of the other ~75% recurve well east of the US. So, a recurve east of the CONUS continues to be the most favored outcome per model consensus by a pretty good margin. This has been the case for several days and it is holding. Hopefully, that is a good sign. But 25% is still way too high for comfort and model biases may mean that the 25% rises later.