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Pattern ENSO Updates

Storm5 said:
I find myself wanting to post in this thread but it would be negative towards the upcoming winter so I'll hold off


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Mr. Sunshine it'll be ok. Who doesn't like 85° Christmas Day temps anyway


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whatalife said:
Mr. Sunshine it'll be ok. Who doesn't like 85° Christmas Day temps anyway


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Well...
Winter 2016 - Fail, Torch
Summer 2016 - Extreme heat and no rain
winter 2017 - Fail, Torch
summer 2017 - Cooler and wet so far

So winter has to be good, right? ;)
 
Storm5 said:
Well ok then
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Yeah so much for that El Nino.... A weak event is definitely still possible w/ canonical growth after the autumn equinox but we are going in the wrong direction for that scenario.
 
Webberweather53 said:
IF there ends up being a Modoki/weakish Niño this fall, look out below tempwise this winter as I have been saying!

No, there are a host of other factors at play for the upcoming winter, a weak, modoki NINO will by no means solidify a below normal winter in spite of what history may suggest. Beware of your own confirmation biases for cold/snow and don't fall into the same trap as JB...

By the way, the recent/progged pattern of normal to slightly cooler than norm in the SE is modestly correlated to an oncoming weak Niño. Also, if a weak Niño were to actually materialize, a not so active ASO in the Atlantic tropics would be favored even after a relatively active June as we've had. That will be somewhat tricky as the MDR appears favorably warm at least as of now. So, we'll see.

There's very little support for an inactive hurricane season this upcoming year especially over the east-central MDR, and a weak NINO would do little to stifle it, and again as I mentioned earlier would take until at least September, if not later for the climate system to respond to the Eq Pacific stimulus. Not to mention, the warmer atlantic is actually aiding in fighting off the oncoming El Nino by modulating the local Hadley Cell network and is augmenting the easterly trade winds over the east-central Equatorial Pacific....
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I follow what you're saying. I need to clarify. I'm saying good chance if we get a weakish Nino for a colder than normal DJF in the SE US and MAYBE even a quite cold winter there but by no means would this be anywhere near a certainty due to other factors. More like a likelihood of a colder than normal winter based on history imo.

By the way, it now looks like the June SOI will end up in the -8.5 to -9 range. A large portion of these were in oncoming Nino years fwiw.
 
GaWx said:
I follow what you're saying. I need to clarify. I'm saying good chance if we get a weakish Nino for a colder than normal DJF in the SE US and MAYBE even a quite cold winter there but by no means would this be anywhere near a certainty due to other factors. More like a likelihood of a colder than normal winter based on history imo.

By the way, it now looks like the June SOI will end up in the -8.5 to -9 range. A large portion of these were in oncoming Nino years fwiw.
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The daily and monthly SOI provided by the BOM aren't exactly comparable, they use different base periods for their calculation... Monthly uses a 1933-1992 base period while daily uses 1887-1989
 
Webberweather53 said:
The daily and monthly SOI provided by the BOM aren't exactly comparable, they use different base periods for their calculation... Monthly uses a 1933-1992 base period while daily uses 1887-1989
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Btw, looking at years wherein the SOI was within 0.5 sigma of -8 for June, only ~35-40% of those years were followed by an El Nino...
 
There's some absolute great knowledgeable discussion going on here, civilly and very informative... thanks guys!
But in all honesty all we really want to know... is it going to snow in Lavonia this year?? :D Lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
Btw, looking at years wherein the SOI was within 0.5 sigma of -8 for June, only ~35-40% of those years were followed by an El Nino...
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Junes with an SOI of -12 or lower are very strong predictors/indicators of El Niño (10 of 12). So, I'll focus on the -6 to -12 area, which is centered on the -9 that I'm predicting for this month, which would place it near the 18th percentile of the most -SOI June's.

There have been 25 Junes within the -6 to -12 range. Of those, 12 (48%) were in advance of a Niño fall/winter. That leaves 13 others. Of those 13, 4 were following a Niño with every or just about every month from the prior fall/winter through the June afterward in solid -SOI territory. So, the solidly -SOI in June could be thought of in those cases as a holdover near the end of an old Niño.

That leaves 9 others that didn't go to a new Niño. All 9 of these had a MJJ Niño 3.4 SST anomaly (per Webber tables) within the range of -0.7 to +0.1. Barring some unforeseen steep drop in July, MJJ is likely headed for something like +0.4 to +0.6, which is clearly warmer than those 9 cases. So, in essence, 2017 has a head start that those 9 didn't have.

So, 2017 is not in either of the above 2 categories covering the 13 June SOI's within the -6 to -12 range that didn't go to Niño. Whereas I'm not saying we're anywhere near a certain Niño, I firmly feel that the chances right now are a good bit higher than 35-40%...perhaps a 2 in 3 chance.
 
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GaWx said:
June's with an SOI of -12 or lower are very strong predictors/indicators of El Niño (10 of 12). So, I'll focus on the -6 to -12 area, which is centered on the -9 that I'm predicting for this month, which would place it near the 18th percentile of the most -SOI June's.

There have been 25 June's within the -6 to -12 range. Of those, 12 (48%) were in advance of a Niño fall/winter. That leaves 13 others. Of those 13, 4 were following a Niño with every or just about every month from the prior fall/winter through the June afterward in solid -SOI territory. So, the solidly -SOI in June could be thought of in those cases as a holdover near the end of an old Niño.

That leaves 9 others that didn't go to a new Niño. All 9 of these had a MJJ Niño 3.4 SST anomaly (per Webber tables) within the range of -0.7 to +0.1. Barring some unforeseen steep drop in July, MJJ is likely headed for something like +0.4 to +0.6, which is clearly warmer than those 9 cases. So, in essence, 2017 has a head start that those 9 didn't have.

So, 2017 is not in either of the above 2 categories covering the 13 June SOI's within the -6 to -12 range that didn't go to Niño. Whereas I'm not saying we're anywhere near a certain Niño, I firmly feel that the chances right now are a good bit higher than 35-40%...perhaps a 2 in 3 chance.
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Fabulous analysis/discussion, Larry!
 
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GaWx said:
June's with an SOI of -12 or lower are very strong predictors/indicators of El Niño (10 of 12). So, I'll focus on the -6 to -12 area, which is centered on the -9 that I'm predicting for this month, which would place it near the 18th percentile of the most -SOI June's.

There have been 25 June's within the -6 to -12 range. Of those, 12 (48%) were in advance of a Niño fall/winter. That leaves 13 others. Of those 13, 4 were following a Niño with every or just about every month from the prior fall/winter through the June afterward in solid -SOI territory. So, the solidly -SOI in June could be thought of in those cases as a holdover near the end of an old Niño.

That leaves 9 others that didn't go to a new Niño. All 9 of these had a MJJ Niño 3.4 SST anomaly (per Webber tables) within the range of -0.7 to +0.1. Barring some unforeseen steep drop in July, MJJ is likely headed for something like +0.4 to +0.6, which is clearly warmer than those 9 cases. So, in essence, 2017 has a head start that those 9 didn't have.

So, 2017 is not in either of the above 2 categories covering the 13 June SOI's within the -6 to -12 range that didn't go to Niño. Whereas I'm not saying we're anywhere near a certain Niño, I firmly feel that the chances right now are a good bit higher than 35-40%...perhaps a 2 in 3 chance.
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Again, I'll reiterate that the SOI is probably one of (if not) the worst index to use for monitoring ENSO in real-time since SLP is highly susceptible to atmospheric white noise unrelated to ENSO and the regions used to define the oscillation are singular points that are themselves prone to extreme diurnal and synoptic scale variability not related to ENSO, plus, again as I showed above, the SOI is completely out of touch w/ reality and the trade winds over the equatorial Pacific have actually been stronger than normal for the past few months (& are liable to remain so for the next several weeks). 2017 may have a head start, but the ongoing +ENSO event has not intensified over the past month or so, and there's no downwelling kelvin wave (or one becoming evident) over the equatorial Pacific to maintain the +SSTAs in the east-central Pacific, and it will be at least September (or longer) before another oceanic KW emerges... A 2 in 3 chance is more than generous here...
 
metwannabe said:
In all seriousness this is fantastic discussion with great analysis!! Keep it up guys I love reading sound factual discussion that informs and educates such as this!
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Can you imagine what it would be like if we all got together after a long day and got ... well ... a few too many ... LOL
I would need a dictionary and a laptop to keep up ... :D
 
GaWx said:
June's with an SOI of -12 or lower are very strong predictors/indicators of El Niño (10 of 12). So, I'll focus on the -6 to -12 area, which is centered on the -9 that I'm predicting for this month, which would place it near the 18th percentile of the most -SOI June's.

There have been 25 June's within the -6 to -12 range. Of those, 12 (48%) were in advance of a Niño fall/winter. That leaves 13 others. Of those 13, 4 were following a Niño with every or just about every month from the prior fall/winter through the June afterward in solid -SOI territory. So, the solidly -SOI in June could be thought of in those cases as a holdover near the end of an old Niño.

That leaves 9 others that didn't go to a new Niño. All 9 of these had a MJJ Niño 3.4 SST anomaly (per Webber tables) within the range of -0.7 to +0.1. Barring some unforeseen steep drop in July, MJJ is likely headed for something like +0.4 to +0.6, which is clearly warmer than those 9 cases. So, in essence, 2017 has a head start that those 9 didn't have.

So, 2017 is not in either of the above 2 categories covering the 13 June SOI's within the -6 to -12 range that didn't go to Niño. Whereas I'm not saying we're anywhere near a certain Niño, I firmly feel that the chances right now are a good bit higher than 35-40%...perhaps a 2 in 3 chance.
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If you use years within about 0.5 sigma of this upcoming June (-9.0 +/- 5.5), to attain a large enough of a sample size to glean any statistical significance wrt SOI initialization while maintaining years w/ similar SOI behavior, you're left w/ 41 Junes, of those only 17 observed an El Nino in the subsequent winter, or approximately 40% as I mentioned earlier...
 
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