Pattern ENSO Updates

[GaWx]

Today's weekly release, which is actually for the average covering last week, has Niño 3.4 still at +0.7. Also, the subsurface continues to steadily warm back up, which has been ongoing for much of June. Looking at today's 5 day averaged TAO map (for the 5 days ending yesterday) for SST anomalies, it appears to be approaching +0.75 in Niño 3.4. However, the current satellite based graph from Cowan fwiw shows it has cooled 0.1 from yesterday to only +0.439. But that has been 0.1 to 0.2 cooler than the weeklies in recent weeks for whatever reason. Regardless, perhaps that means 3.4 really has cooled since yesterday.

Overall, the combo of recent SOIs, SST anomalies, and recent subsurface warming continues to suggest to me a good chance that a weak Modoki El Niño is in the cards. The July SOI will be rather telling. If it comes in solidly negative like June, that would only raise that chance further.

The July 1 monthly model plume for Niño 3.4 will be interesting. June's overall SST anomaly looks like it was near +0.6. Some of the June 1 runs for June were as cool as +0.2. Even the Euro mean was only near +0.4 for June and near +0.3 for July. I'm still expecting at least some warmer adjustment in the July 1 plume.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Not sure if this should go in Banter or here but what type of winter weather is usually seen across the Southeast in Modoki El Niño patterns?

 

[pcbjr]

Not sure if this should go in Banter or here but what type of winter weather is usually seen across the Southeast in Modoki El Niño patterns?

A Modoki El Niño pattern is but one egg in the basket; all other things being equal one could statistically expect a generally BN winter. Said with all sorts of caveats ...

 

[GaWx]

A Modoki El Niño pattern is but one egg in the basket; all other things being equal one could statistically expect a generally BN winter. Said with all sorts of caveats ...

Well said. One thing I'll add is that it is a rather important egg. ENSO in general is rather an important egg. The OVERALL SE US warmth during La Niña winters averaged out (i.e., there is still considerable variation that depends on other factors as Phil said) vs the OVERALL SE US coolness during El Niño winters averaged out is not debatable. All one has to do to know this is to look at past winters. Looking at El Niño winters specifically, the coldest SE US ones have tended to be associated with weaker ones (weak to low end moderate Niño
winters and not necessarily Modoki). Actually, a significant % of the coldest SE US winters since the late 1800s have occurred during weak to low end moderate El Niño episodes (not necessarily Modoki). There has been no other ENSO category, including strong El Niño, that has averaged nearly as cold. The warmest category by a good margin has been moderate to strong La Niña.

Those weak to low end moderate Niño winters that have followed weak La Niña winters may have a tendency to be the coldest in the SE US on average but the statistical significance when reducing the sample size to only include these is obviously lower. Regardless, 1951-2 is a gross exception to that tendency. Note that the PDO was strongly negative then. Weak to moderate Niño winters that have been cold have much more often been when there was a +PDO vs a -PDO.

 

[Webberweather53]

One thing to also keep in mind vs historical tendencies is that the long-term averages are generally sliding upwards and if another El Nino develops this year, global temperatures will likely increase yet again which tilts odds somewhat back in favor of a warmer winter, and as is the long term averages are already becoming very marginal at best for wintry weather in the SE US...

 

[pcbjr]

Gawd is this discussion great!

 

[GaWx]

One thing to also keep in mind vs historical tendencies is that the long-term averages are generally sliding upwards and if another El Nino develops this year, global temperatures will likely increase yet again which tilts odds somewhat back in favor of a warmer winter, and as is the long term averages are already becoming very marginal at best for wintry weather in the SE US...

I agree that another El Niño would increase the odds of short term GLOBAL warming. My understanding is that that is and likely has always been the case whenever there is El Niño with the degree of warming influence correlated with strength of El Niño. However, regarding SE winter temperatures in particular, just having El Niño (especially a weaker one) would imo not at all increase the odds of warmth. To the contrary, I firmly believe that (all other things being equal) that having El Niño this winter would increase the odds of cold in the SE this winter even in the background of what would likely be even warmer global temperatures. Admittedly, a winter several decades ago with a similar strength El Niño would likely have been colder due to a colder globe.

 

[whatalife]

One thing to also keep in mind vs historical tendencies is that the long-term averages are generally sliding upwards and if another El Nino develops this year, global temperatures will likely increase yet again which tilts odds somewhat back in favor of a warmer winter, and as is the long term averages are already becoming very marginal at best for wintry weather in the SE US...

Thanks for the positivity there Webber . JB you aren't (in positive way).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[pcbjr]

Thanks for the positivity there Webber . JB you aren't (in positive way).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

IMHO, Webb and Larry are both doing a superlative bang-up job, educating, stating a perspective, and all the while being true gentlemen about their somewhat divergent look(s) at things. Just MHO, and the discussion is most appreciated ...

 

[GaWx]

Thanks for the positivity there Webber . JB you aren't (in positive way).

Yes, but in fairness to the strongly E US cold and snow biased JB, whom I've criticized on numerous occasions due to this strong bias, even he acknowledges the temporary global warming impact of El Niño.

 

[GaWx]

I've detected a recent high bias for BOTH Darwin and Tahiti SLP on the GFS in trying to predict the SOI fwiw. So, they will wash out to some extent against each other. Which of the two locations has a stronger high bias is a tough call. The GFS overall suggests a relatively neutral SOI over the next 2 weeks when averaging all of the days with both locations likely having a higher than average SLP overall during the period. So, if July overall is to have anywhere near as strong a -SOI as June, things will need to either turn in the modeling for the next two weeks, my read on the GFS needs to be +SOI biased, or the period just afterward would need to be strongly -SOI.
Today is the first +SOI day in 8 days.

 

[whatalife]

I've detected a recent high bias for BOTH Darwin and Tahiti SLP on the GFS in trying to predict the SOI fwiw. So, they will wash out to some extent against each other. Which of the two locations has a stronger high bias is a tough call. The GFS overall suggests a relatively neutral SOI over the next 2 weeks when averaging all of the days with both locations likely having a higher than average SLP overall during the period. So, if July overall is to have anywhere near as strong a -SOI as June, things will need to either turn in the modeling for the next two weeks, my read on the GFS needs to be +SOI biased, or the period just afterward would need to be strongly -SOI.
Today is the first +SOI day in 8 days.

Well that interesting...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Webberweather53]

I agree that another El Niño would increase the odds of short term GLOBAL warming. My understanding is that that is and likely has always been the case whenever there is El Niño with the degree of warming influence correlated with strength of El Niño. However, regarding SE winter temperatures in particular, just having El Niño (especially a weaker one) would imo not at all increase the odds of warmth. To the contrary, I firmly believe that (all other things being equal) that having El Niño this winter would increase the odds of cold in the SE this winter even in the background of what would likely be even warmer global temperatures. Admittedly, a winter several decades ago with a similar strength El Niño would likely have been colder due to a colder globe.

I don't disagree at all with this, yes purely looking at ENSO alone chances increase for colder weather in the SE US given a central Pacific NINO (whose frequency has increased in recent decades, yet the number of cold winters have decreased) and an easterly QBO (if it manages to hold) also increases the amount of WAF onto the polar vortex by confining RW deposition into the winter hemisphere, but even the current eQBO is still highly unstable atm as the easterly descent is unusually rapid...

 

[Webberweather53]

I don't disagree at all with this, yes purely looking at ENSO alone chances increase for colder weather in the SE US given a central Pacific NINO (whose frequency has increased in recent decades, yet the number of cold winters have decreased) and an easterly QBO (if it manages to hold) also increases the amount of WAF onto the polar vortex by confining RW deposition into the winter hemisphere, but even the current eQBO is still highly unstable atm as the easterly descent is unusually rapid...

However with AGW not only does the overall climate background warm, but the placement of the mid-latitude standing rossby wave train induced by the El Nino changes as the meridional breadth of the Hadley Cell increases (i.e. Hadley Cell expansion), thereby changing the location, amplitude, and behavior of downstream rossby wave dispersion over North America and thus sensible weather even in the SE US.

 

[pcbjr]

Webb - I have a heat index of 104º here - this and discussion are prompting an ice cold Corona Light!

 

[whatalife]

So we have arguments for possible cold El Niño w/possibly snow vs a possible warmer El Niño w/no snow. IF El Niño shows up. So what's new in the SE.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[pcbjr]

So we have arguments for possible cold El Niño w/possibly snow vs a possible warmer El Niño w/no snow. IF El Niño shows up. So what's knew in the SE.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't know ... LOL

 

[Webberweather53]

So we have arguments for possible cold El Niño w/possibly snow vs a possible warmer El Niño w/no snow. IF El Niño shows up. So what's new in the SE.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

All I'm really saying here is we need to proceed with more caution than immediately try to jump to conclusions or incessantly emphasize/talk about a cold winter in the SE US this year without looking at a host of other parameters. It's amazing what happens when we truly look at "everything" instead of filter for information (even if it's legitimate) that confirms our own personal biases towards cold and snow...

 

[pcbjr]

All I'm really saying here is we need to proceed with more caution than immediately try to jump to conclusions or incessantly emphasize/talk about a cold winter in the SE US this year without looking at a host of other parameters. It's amazing what happens when we truly look at "everything" instead of filter for information (even if it's legitimate) that confirms our own personal biases towards cold and snow...

You are 100% right, succinct, and saying it better than I ever could (like with my perhaps puerile egg-in-the-basket analogy earlier today).

 

[whatalife]

All I'm really saying here is we need to proceed with more caution than immediately try to jump to conclusions or incessantly emphasize/talk about a cold winter in the SE US this year without looking at a host of other parameters. It's amazing what happens when we truly look at "everything" instead of filter for information (even if it's legitimate) that confirms our own personal biases towards cold and snow...

Nicely put.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk