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Pattern ENSO Updates

The latest IRI statistical-dynamical model consensus is not enthused about the prospects of an El Nino and a majority of the members show warm ENSO neutral going into next winter. It's worth mentioning here that short-medium range model skill increases as we move away from the spring predictability barrier...
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Webberweather53 said:
The latest IRI statistical-dynamical model consensus is not enthused about the prospects of an El Nino and a majority of the members show warm ENSO neutral going into next winter. It's worth mentioning here that short-medium range model skill increases as we move away from the spring predictability barrier...
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Fabulous analysis/discussion, Webb!
 
pcbjr said:
Can you imagine what it would be like if we all got together after a long day and got ... well ... a few too many ... LOL
I would need a dictionary and a laptop to keep up ... :D
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HAHA!


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Webberweather53 said:
The latest IRI statistical-dynamical model consensus is not enthused about the prospects of an El Nino and a majority of the members show warm ENSO neutral going into next winter. It's worth mentioning here that short-medium range model skill increases as we move away from the spring predictability barrier...
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Figures , there goes my west based Nino. I'll take a neutral Nino at this point . Damn , I'm settling in June #desperateforwinter


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Webberweather53 said:
If you use years within about 0.5 sigma of this upcoming June (-9.0 +/- 5.5), to attain a large enough of a sample size to glean any statistical significance wrt SOI initialization while maintaining years w/ similar SOI behavior, you're left w/ 41 Junes, of those only 17 observed an El Nino in the subsequent winter, or approximately 40% as I mentioned earlier...
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I feel that using 9 +/- 3 as I've done provides a good balance of a large enough sample size for good credibility (25) and still similar enough SOI's. I don't feel comfortable in extending the limits to 14.5 and 3.5.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The latest IRI statistical-dynamical model consensus is not enthused about the prospects of an El Nino and a majority of the members show warm ENSO neutral going into next winter. It's worth mentioning here that short-medium range model skill increases as we move away from the spring predictability barrier...
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Yeah, I'm aware of the cooler June model plume. One thing I'd like to note is that several of these models that had an upcoming -ENSO
had a rather sharp cooldown from +0.5 in May to +0.2 in June. That obviously isn't happening. If anything, June is looking to end up about 0.1C warmer than May or near +0.6. Because of this, I'm leaning to the July plume average being warmer than this June plume.
 
Storm5 said:
Figures , there goes my west based Nino. I'll take a neutral Nino at this point . Damn , I'm settling in June #desperateforwinter


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A weak NINO is definitely more than in play atm given just how close we already are to the threshold and have been of late but w/o appreciable intensification, glwt.
GaWx said:
I feel that using 9 +/- 3 as I've done provides a good balance of a large enough sample size for good credibility (25) and still similar enough SOI's. I don't feel comfortable in extending the limits to 14.5 and 3.5.
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The SOI is incredibly noisy and exhibits the weakest correlations w/ all other ENSO indices across the board because a large proportion of its power lies outside the ENSO spectrum. Utilizing a tri-monthly or pentad averaged filter is strongly advised when using the SOI for real-time ENSO monitoring. The reason for utilizing 0.5 sigma thresholds has to do w/ the fact that approximately 30-35% of the data will fall within this range (when using a normally distributed bell curve), and this is relatively close to the percentile MEI definitions, which usually denote El Nino and La Nina conditions for the top and bottom 30th percentiles of available data for a given month or season. See Wolter and Timlin (2011) & Wolter's MEI page for more information....
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, I'm aware of the cooler June model plume. One thing I'd like to note is that several of these models that had an upcoming -ENSO
had a rather sharp cooldown from +0.5 in May to +0.2 in June. That obviously isn't happening. If anything, June is looking to end up about 0.1C warmer than May or near +0.6. Because of this, I'm leaning to the July plume average being warmer than this June plume.
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Only a few spurious outliers (such as the GFDL CM 2.1) show this scenario, for the most part the general consensus statistical-dynamical models are pretty consistent on steady state ENSO conditions for the foreseeable future, they may be a tad warmer near initialization in July but many of these models are also heavily state dependent, and intraseasonal noise due to the MJO or oceanic KWs can lead to overcorrections in their forecasts...
 
Larry and Eric, I just want thank you for your robust debate over the ENSO. This debate is a true winner for all who want to learn more about the ENSO.


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It appears JB has put out a raging weatherbull video on some of his thoughts on this upcoming weather. No surprises. He is still calling for a Modoki El Niño to develop.


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whatalife said:
It appears JB has put out a raging weatherbull video on some of his thoughts on this upcoming weather. No surprises. He is still calling for a Modoki El Niño to develop.


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Let's hope our buddy Eric does not find it. BUT if he wants to see it I'll be happy to give him my wxbell login. The twitter lesson would be epic!!!!


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Storm5 said:
Let's hope our buddy Eric does not find it. BUT if he wants to see it I'll be happy to give him my wxbell login. The twitter lesson would be epic!!!!


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HAHA!


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JB is up early this morning
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With the current 3.4 SST anomaly appearing to hang around +0.7 C, it wouldn't at all be that difficult to end up with a weak Modoki Niño this fall/winter. So, imo, JB isn't hyping for a change. If we really do end up with a weak Modoki Niño and assume that the +PDO persists through the winter, the upcoming SE winter quite realistically could be cold and maybe even memorable. Just add to those two things a solid -NAO, the biggest challenge, and the nontrivial chance for memorable based on the trifecta of weak Niño, +PDO, and -NAO would be there. This would set up the chance for the greatest cold turnaround from one winter to the next in the SE US since at least the late 1800s. All speculation right now but not a far fetched possibility as of now.
 
GaWx said:
With the current 3.4 SST anomaly appearing to hang around +0.7 C, it wouldn't at all be that difficult to end up with a weak Modoki Niño this fall/winter. So, imo, JB isn't hyping for a change. If we really do end up with a weak Modoki Niño and assume that the +PDO persists through the winter, the upcoming SE winter quite realistically could be cold and maybe even memorable. Just add to those two things a solid -NAO, the biggest challenge, and the nontrivial chance for memorable based on the trifecta of weak Niño, +PDO, and -NAO would be there. This would set up the chance for the greatest cold turnaround from one winter to the next in the SE US since at least the late 1800s. All speculation right now but not a far fetched possibility as of now.
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Sounds nice if we can get one. Every time a winter is bad, it only makes it more likely to have a good one I feel.
 
The 0Z GFS/Euro are in agreement that high Darwin SLPs will return around 7/9 and persist for awhile. However, there is disagreement regarding Tahiti. The GFS has it fairly unremarkable while the Euro has it much lower and is implying a strongly -SOI period starting near 7/9-10. The GFS seems to have had a high bias on Tahiti SLPs recently. So, I'm leaning to the Euro regarding Tahiti as of now. That means I'm leaning toward a solid -SOI period for at least several days starting around 7/9-10. Meanwhile, July has started off with 2 days of -SOI, which will shortly reverse as Tahiti goes much higher in advance of that anticipated strongly -SOI period. Tahiti dailies could reach as high as 1016.5-1017 for a couple of days.

** Edit for this addition: Looking at today's 5 day averaged 3.4 TAO based SST anomaly map, the far eastern 3.4 continues to slowly cool but this is compensated by areas further west. The area that is warmer than +1.0 continues to grow and is now including a small area north of the equator. The very warmest within this warmer than +1.0 area appears to be approaching +1.25.
 
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GaWx said:
The 0Z GFS/Euro are in agreement that high Darwin SLPs will return around 7/9 and persist for awhile. However, there is disagreement regarding Tahiti. The GFS has it fairly unremarkable while the Euro has it much lower and is implying a strongly -SOI period starting near 7/9-10. The GFS seems to have had a high bias on Tahiti SLPs recently. So, I'm leaning to the Euro regarding Tahiti as of now. That means I'm leaning toward a solid -SOI period for at least several days starting around 7/9-10. Meanwhile, July has started off with 2 days of -SOI, which will shortly reverse as Tahiti goes much higher in advance of that anticipated strongly -SOI period. Tahiti dailies could reach as high as 1016.5-1017 for a couple of days.
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What do this means for us here in South Carolina, and Georgia for weather??
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
What do this means for us here in South Carolina, and Georgia for weather??
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Based on what others have written, I believe that a strongly -SOI period is mildly correlated with near to below normal temperatures in summer in the SE US soon afterward though I need to research that to confirm for myself. Regardless, the short term SE weather varies quite a bit with regard to the SOI. The main reason I'm posting about this is to try to get a better handle on the most likely direction for ENSO during the next few months, which could easily have larger implications for winter than summer here in the SE. There is a good correlation between the multimonth SOI in summer and the subsequent fall/winter ENSO. A persistent -SOI tends to favor El Niño. An El Niño this winter would give the SE a better chance at a cold 2017-8 winter imo.
 
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