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Pattern April Showers

To show the drastic GFS change: yesterday's 0Z/6Z GFS runs, when the low crossed N FL underneath an Arctic high, had at Columbia an historic significant mainly ZR/IP wedge induced winter storm, the likes of which hasn't been seen in April there since at least 1915 and which would have made many Columbian wintry fans very happy. Today's 6Z has about that same amount of precip (0.50") but with temperatures in the 60s and a high of 80 just preceding the rain.

Edit: The track of the surface low on the 12Z GFS is a whopping 300 miles north of the track on yesterday's 0Z and 6Z GFS runs.
This historic goose looks cooked to me. Besides, it was historic there on only those 2 runs. Prior to those runs, the GFS had nothing even close to historic at Columbia. So, the two runs were the equivalent of just a blip at Columbia.
 
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If there's just a little more CAPE and the synoptic setup remains generally similar or even improves some, things could get interesting wrt severe in portions of the Carolinas.
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It's amazing how much the sensible impacts from the storm this weekend change just from a minute alteration in the placement and intensity of the northern stream s/ws pinwheeling around the base of the SE Canada cyclonic gyre. 30s/40s and cold rain mixed w/ snow/sleet in the cold sector to 60s & 70s in the warm sector w/ the potential for a few severe storms or heavy thunderstorms if more CAPE is realized.
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UK has weak low in the Deep South at day 4. Wonder how much timing of this wave has to do with how far north it tracks.
 
I’m just going to keep riding the Canadian since it keeps spitting out maps like this.

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Unfortunately this is the more likely outcome.

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A secondary wave develops on the front and slings moisture back across the cold front in NC leading to snow on the backend for the same areas that were in the 60s/70s just several hours prior.
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Some of the most recent models are suggesting a significant snowfall at DC. Going back to 1925, the most in April has been only 0.6". So, there is a chance for this to be exceeded. The highest on record in April is the 5.5" of 1924.

The highest monthly total of this season to date has been the 4.5" of March. Has DCA ever had its heaviest monthly in April? That did occur in 1889 (4.0"). Also, the 3.5" of April of 1915 tied with Dec of 1914.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I wouldn't ride the UKMET. It's been too far south it seems all winter.
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UK was really good for the January events, if I recall correctly. But, was bad with last weeks event. All models have struggled outside of day 4 all winter. We will see what tomorrow’s runs show. With such a cold airmass it will be a great event for whoever sees snow.
 
Brick Tamland said:
So, right now the models seem to still be all over the place. GFS goes back south again to the Euro. Lots of changes and inconsistency still with the model runs.
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If I'm not mistaken, the gfs is north than prior runs. Really doesn't look good for NC, maybe mountains. Looking great for Kentucky and the Virginia.
 
Anyone surprised JB is literally saying the best snows mighy end up right in his backyard lol
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Storm5 said:
Anyone surprised JB is literally saying the best snows mighy end up right in his backyard lol
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JB knows he sucks at snow. He’s been on the outside looking in all winter
 
last weeks system shifted south a little late so I am going to be a :weenie: and still hope. CMC ok and 18z ICON is south so there is still weenie hope.
 
Local weather now mentions possible light snow for northern middle Tennessee this weekend. It’s been cool to see snow so many times this late in the season but at the same time a little hard watching places 50-75 miles north of me pick up 3-5 inches of snow multiple times in March. This event looks like the same thing is going to happen possibly where I’m on the outside looking in at bigger totals just to my north. Either way it pretty amazing and this very easily could end up the heaviest snow I’ve seen this late in the season even if it’s only a dusting. Most I’ve seen before in April was tiny dandruff flakes with no accumulation.
 
I wish just one time the models could lock in on a southeast snowstorm 7 days out and keep it all the way in. I mean, I know that’s not realistic and I don’t expect it, especially in April, and especially when we need a south trend. You can’t hardly buy a south trend in the dead of winter, much less mid-April.
 
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