Severe 2023 Spring Severe

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The Hhhrrrrr was showing run after run storms for Sunday, while the 3k was showing zilch. Now, it's the opposite. I'm usually inclined to discount the HhrrrrRR any chance I get. That said, there just doesn't look to be a favorable setup for widespread coverage.

Scattered showers/storms with maybe a severe cluster somewhere in the east seems reasonable. 30% --> 50% central to east looks right to me.
The hrrr did really good a couple weeks ago and was really close to what happened.
 
WRAL 's Mike Maze posted this on Facebook.

WRAL WEATHER ALERT DAY: We are starting to see showers pop up on the DD5K which could be the start of the storms for this afternoon. Still waiting for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued. It's watch and wait mode!
 
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Not an exact match but initiation looks more like what the HRRR and most other mesoscales were showing and less like the NAM. Doubting the MCS playing out.

Yeah not seeing the big cluster forming in VA just yet.....needs to get popping soon if its going to keep the timing the hi res had....
 
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Greene County in eastern North Carolina...
Central Pitt County in eastern North Carolina...

* Until 430 PM EDT.

* At 341 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast
of Elm City, or 11 miles northwest of Farmville, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Winterville, Farmville, Bell Arthur, House, Bruce, East
Carolina University, Pitt Greenville Airport, Dowdy Ficklen
Stadium, Fountain, Simpson, Walstonburg and Falkland.
 
Oof
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The hail we got was mostly dime with a few pennies. Bet it was way bigger than that a mile or two to my south. Damage report at Ballard's crossroads and a house fire that's about 2 miles to my southwest

 
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