Well said. In case anyone might be mislead by this, I don't think he's suggesting not to post 10
day modeled TC positions. I see nothing wrong with that as for one thing it is good documentation that helps show how way off these progs end up being the vast majority of the time and also helps give an idea about which models tend to be more way off than others, the strengths and weaknesses of various models, etc. So, these can help us learn in this way and others.
It is assumed by now that experienced readers of these posts realize that the probabilities of a TC position/strength verifying closely at, say, day 10+ are almost always extremely low though that chance will not be quite as low if there's the almost unheard of instance of model agreement on run after run that far out. That's why I said that having modeled hits on the US from FL to ME (later this went into the GOM) and over a 4 day period meant that it would be quite awhile before there was to be a good handle on 99L, assuming it would even ever become a TC.
However, there does seem to be a big problem with posting well out into the future modeled TC positions on Facebook, etc., as that's where there are readers less educated on the extremely low probabilities of verification thus causing unnecessary panic.
