Severe 2023 Spring Severe

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Downeastnc said:
Hi res runs are mainly a extreme NE NC severe setup....

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On the large scale this is one of the setups in this area that can really produce this time of year. Backdoor front moving into a seasonally hot airmass with some glancing jet help can really fire up some decent wind/hailers. The big detractor becomes if the flow veers WNW or NW and we start mixing out or advecting in a lot of dry air which may be the case tomorrow. Additionally we may have a little subsidence in the wake of the weak mcv that rolls through early tomorrow to suppress things even more. Hires models probably have it right with the best chance of a severe storm being tied closer to the lift and along any moisture pooling ahead of the BD front. Will be interesting to see where we are around noon tomorrow
 
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SD said:
On the large scale this is one of the setups in this area that can really produce this time of year. Backdoor front moving into a seasonally hot airmass with some glancing jet help can really fire up some decent wind/hailers. The big detractor becomes if the flow veers WNW or NW and we start mixing out or advecting in a lot of dry air which may be the case tomorrow. Additionally we may have a little subsidence in the wake of the weak mcv that rolls through early tomorrow to suppress things even more. Hires models probably have it right with the best chance of a severe storm being tied closer to the lift and along any moisture pooling ahead of the BD front. Will be interesting to see where we are around noon tomorrow
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Keep us posted on your thoughts!!!
 
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If the last couple runs of the NAM are to be believed we might get in on some MCS action here in SE NC this evening. Looks to be in the 7pm-9pm range for my town in particular. Other mesoscale models are a little less enthusiastic but show some spotty storms. Been really tame this Spring in my neck of the woods maybe the NAM has the right idea. I'm ready for something with a little more teeth (as long as it doesn't cause major damage)
 
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Shaggy said:
Yeah hrrr doesn't look overly excited ekther
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The Hhhrrrrr was showing run after run storms for Sunday, while the 3k was showing zilch. Now, it's the opposite. I'm usually inclined to discount the HhrrrrRR any chance I get. That said, there just doesn't look to be a favorable setup for widespread coverage.

Scattered showers/storms with maybe a severe cluster somewhere in the east seems reasonable. 30% --> 50% central to east looks right to me.
 
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