Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

[Mr. Golf]

Obviously yes it's not going to pan out exactly like that but I find it hard to believe it won't happen at all and/or won't be extremely impressive somewhere in the southeastern US and/or central plains esp when there could be more than 1 typhoon recurvature ~ October 20 in the WP

Webber, got a few questions. Is it the typhoons recurving and mjo that may change the pattern to cold for us? Also, Mike ventrice mentioned the eps showing possible displacement of PV. Is that a separate thing or is it all tied to mjo phases?

 

[BHS1975]

It’s been a long time since we’ve had a cold November or October here.


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[Brent]

93 today woohoo October

Maybe 95 tomorrow

Wednesday was barely 70 and Sunday will struggle to see 70

90s become a lot less likely after tomorrow so we'll see

 

[Tarheel1]

It’s been a long time since we’ve had a cold November or October here.


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I'm telling y'all, like Phil said, you don't want an extremely cold snap in Oct/Nov, the rest of the winter will torch 90% of the time

 

[SoutheastRidge]

I'm telling y'all, like Phil said, you don't want an extremely cold snap in Oct/Nov, the rest of the winter will torch 90% of the time

What exactly do you consider an extremely cold snap ? It's pretty typical to have a front in late Oct/Nov bring freezing temps. Are you talking about like highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s ?

 

[Tarheel1]

What exactly do you consider an extremely cold snap ? It's pretty typical to have a front in late Oct/Nov bring freezing temps. Are you talking about like highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s ?

Snow on Nov 1st a few years ago, stuff like that! That winter was a total disaster

 

[pcbjr]

Not for the faint-hearted, but at least today it looks as though we can put away any discussion about whether a cold late October (or early November) portends a warm winter ...

 

[Tarheel1]

But wait, the end of October, Early November, gonna be cold! JB and DT told me!

 

[Webberweather53]

Not for the faint-hearted, but at least today it looks as though we can put away any discussion about whether a cold late October (or early November) portends a warm winter ...

I also wouldn't put much, if any stock in the CFSv2 given its consistently the worst performing global model & is at odds w/ all other modeling packages atm in addition to the large-scale pattern which argues for a pattern shift late month

 

[StormNine59]

Sometimes patterns can lock into place for several months (like 99-00, last year, and potentially this year). There is not a strong correlation either way between what the Fall (or Summer) is like versus what Winter is like. November 2014 was cold but Winter 14-15 was cold and as well overall.

 

[Webberweather53]

I also wouldn't put much, if any stock in the CFSv2 given its consistently the worst performing global model & is at odds w/ all other modeling packages atm in addition to the large-scale pattern which argues for a pattern shift late month

The CFSv2 consistently performs worse than even the NAVGEM and CMC suites at most leads... This model sucks really bad...

 

[pcbjr]

I also wouldn't put much, if any stock in the CFSv2 given its consistently the worst performing global model & is at odds w/ all other modeling packages atm in addition to the large-scale pattern which argues for a pattern shift late month

Webb ... Goodness gracious, I know that! Been throwing darts at that model for years. Remember? Was using the CFSv2 to make another point altogether. Guess I totally missed in presenting my (veiled or maybe sarcastic?) analogy ...
Best!
Phil

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Sometimes patterns can lock into place for several months (like 99-00, last year, and potentially this year). There is not a strong correlation either way between what the Fall (or Summer) is like versus what Winter is like. November 2014 was cold but Winter 14-15 was cold and as well overall.

It sure seems like we have no problems locking into a hot pattern.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Ended up being 10 degrees cooler than thought due to clouds today.

 

[SimeonNC]

I feel like I'm the only one who's not all doom and gloom about the long-range, especially winter. Like I know the past two winters haven't been so great but I feel like the upcoming winter will be better than the last two, and as for the current pattern. Things will change, I have faith.

 

[accu35]

Lol

 

[Brent]

Lol the gfs has snow less than an hour from here on October 28th

Okay sure

 

[MBell]

I disagree. There was snow in north Georgia on Halloween in 2014. We had a cold snowy winter. Anecdotal but my theory is a cold fall equals a cold winter.


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I remember that night. I was driving up 400 near roswell/alphretta and the rain was coming down so hard it changed to snow for a brief period. Nothing stuck of course as it was in the 38-40 range I believe. It was interesting though.

 

[tennessee storm]

yeah... i wouldnt put my shorts away and flip flops just yet...

 

[setxwx]

yeah... i wouldnt put my shorts away and flip flops just yet...

sheeit, that's my standard fare unless it gets below 20 degrees even in Winter. But all models point to a brief warmup after this week's cold front, then a big cool down again.