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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

Yes plz
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We may be in store for a Rainy Sunday Night through Tuesday from southern SC to Coastal NC with 92L!!! Models are starting to trend with the 92L riding the coast. 2-6 Inches possible!!
 
An elongated area of low pressure located over northeast Florida is
producing a widespread area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is expected to move over the western
Atlantic later today, and has a brief opportunity to become a
tropical or subtropical depression during the next day or so,
before it merges with a cold front. Regardless of development, the
low is expected to cause increasing winds and rough surf along the
coasts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia through mid-week.
Heavy rain is also expected to continue over portions of the Florida
peninsula during the next 24 hours. Please refer to products from
your local National Weather Service forecast office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Nothing to really base on but for some reason "gut feeling"/ thinking 'Irma" and concerned for slow mover surge/rain event all along SE Coast...
 
An elongated area of low pressure located over northeast Florida is
producing a widespread area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is expected to move over the western
Atlantic later today, and has a brief opportunity to become a
tropical or subtropical depression during the next day or so,
before it merges with a cold front. Regardless of development, the
low is expected to cause increasing winds and rough surf along the
coasts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia through mid-week.
Heavy rain is also expected to continue over portions of the Florida
peninsula during the next 24 hours. Please refer to products from
your local National Weather Service forecast office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
I'm so confused about the westward extent of the rain shield. I feel like the setup favors something similar to the gfs. The spread in the sref plume is crazy from 0-5 at RDU with a mean around 2 and about an even distribution of members.


Looks like things are trying to get going about 100 miles east of Brunswick Ga. Just looking at the satellite I wouldn't be shocked for this to become a td/ts today or tonight. It's quickly getting that lopsided tropical system look

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Last edited:
SD said:
I'm so confused about the westward extent of the rain shield. I feel like the setup favors something similar to the gfs. The spread in the sref plume is crazy from 0-5 at RDU with a mean around 2 and about an even distribution of members.


Looks like things are trying to get going about 100 miles east of Brunswick Ga. Just looking at the satellite I wouldn't be shocked for this to become a td/ts today or tonight. It's quickly getting that lopsided tropical system look

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The storm may become more heavily weighted on its northwestern side as it becomes increasingly baroclinic (w/ vortex tending to tilt northwestward w/ height towards lower heights/cooler air) as interacts with a s/w over the Ohio Valley & there's a strong cold air damming wedge in place across much of the state that will provide a focus for isentropic lift to the north & northwest of the storm and as we all know, NWP often mishandles (under represents) precipitation in this kind of setup...
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_5.png
 
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