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Pattern May Flowers

Unless you work outside, why does the heat matter? Stay in the AC, go to the pool, it's not hard to keep cool. And the drought is overhyped every year. People act like we don't ever get enough rain at some point around here to overcome the drought. I do enjoy storms, but if all we are going to get is rain from Wednesday through the weekend, then no thanks.
 
Yeah I work outside. Hard on your body. Hard on your equipment. It’s already much hotter and than I can remember last summer in July and August. Plenty of water and sunscreen and you’ll live. It can always be worse
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah I work outside. Hard on your body. Hard on your equipment. It’s already much hotter and than I can remember last summer in July and August. Plenty of water and sunscreen and you’ll live. It can always be worse
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Yeah, I work outside too! It’s hard to acclimate from 40-50’s right to mid 90s , over the span of about 2 weeks! Looking forward to the rainy period coming up, you can never have too much rain in May , June, July, or August, IMO! The odds are we will see an extended dry period at some point during summer, and we need all the soil Moisture/ groundwater we can get!
 
GaWx said:
It is still too early for me to have a strong feel but I'd like to know if that rather impressive warm subsurface in the equatorial Pacific is going to help get us El Niño by fall. If so, I'd be thinking less active than normal season. By the way, seasons when El Niño is oncoming actually often have an active start with homegrown fwiw. Then the mid and later parts of the season often become less active than normal. But do we actually have El Niño on the way or not? Any guesses or opinions? I think Webb is favoring it coming unlike what he thought last year.
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Thanks Larry
 
Finally completed snowfall data for the entire state of NC thru the first decade of the 20th century (1895-1909).
We had a pair of really crappy winters in 1902-03 & 1908-09 that sunk the averages down to or below modern levels for many locations apart from the southern and northern coastal plain. The Santa Maria eruption in 1902 and a la nina in 1908-09 likely played a role in those warm winters.
NC Snowfall Climatology Jan 1900-Dec 1909 Map.png
ghsnowcl.gif
Winter of 1902-03 NC Snowmap.png
Winter of 1908-09 NC Snowmap.png
 
SD said:
Metwannabe is about to get an awesome outflow and light show

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The light show was not that impressive but I did get the nice outflow boundary, was like a mini backdoor front had moved through, had to step back outside and enjoy the breeze. The newest member of our family enjoyed it too..... a 7 week old Nigerian Dwarf Goat, yep we've started a tiny goat farm lol
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Beyond humid outside this morning. Feels absolutely horrible!
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Agreed! It flooded in here last evening! Went from nice , to Florida like humidity, very quickly!
 
accu35 said:
Hey Webb, you was on top of things a year ago during hurricane season. What your thoughts of this year and your thoughts on rest of May and June possible homegrown systems before the season really begins? Or Larry can join in on this to.
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We'll have another shot at one in the next week or so as an MJO-induced westerly wind burst occurs over the eastern Pacific, this will help localize large-scale convergence and create an environment with large background cyclonic vorticity in/around central America that's needed to induce tropical cyclogenesis. As always with these monsoon gyre genesis events, they're very hard to forecast, NWP models usually have trouble consolidating an area of low pressure in an environment like this because there are often multiple mesoscale areas of lower pressure and vortices embedded within the broader gyre, and this gyre can also "mask" an apparent TC embryo. We could see a TC form in either the northeastern Pacific, Atlantic, or in neither basin, regardless of whether a storm actually forms or not a lot of this moisture over Central America will stream northward into the southeastern US and slightly increase rainfall chances here the next week or two, if we actually get a TC to form, it would further increase our rain chances which would be much welcome esp at this time of the year. As for ENSO, I'm favoring the development of a central Pacific, weak-moderate El Nino potentially after the fall equinox, the current positive North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) & negative South Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) favors modoki El Nino as further explained by Min (2016):
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0063.1

The following graphic shows 10m winds (wind vectors) & SST (contoured, significant regions are shaded) evolution for NPMM and SPMM events. Notice NPMMs lead to central Pacific El Ninos while SPMM events tend to favor east-based Ninos.
Screen Shot 2018-05-15 at 9.02.35 AM.png

Now look at the current global SST distribution, notice the warm water in the subtropical north-central and northeastern Pacific and cooler water over the southeast Pacific adjacent to extratropical south America, this is very similar to the set of panels on the left which provides us an early clue that if an El Nino develops, it may be more likely to develop in the central Pacific, and there's also a loose relationship between El Nino intensity and placement with weaker El Ninos tending to remain confined to the central Pacific while stronger events are usually "based" further east closer to South America (but there's obviously a lot of diversity not explicitly noted here)
sst.anom.gif
 
Let's play find the phantom tropical system
fb03e2bef3f86d9c05cee43e3e124fac.jpg


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Brick Tamland said:
Unless you work outside, why does the heat matter? Stay in the AC, go to the pool, it's not hard to keep cool. And the drought is overhyped every year. People act like we don't ever get enough rain at some point around here to overcome the drought. I do enjoy storms, but if all we are going to get is rain from Wednesday through the weekend, then no thanks.
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Working inside warehouses without AC isnt much fun eitheir. Anyway bring on the rain and then some. Sitting at .32 for the month of May. Need all we can get, espeacilly after our little heatwave thats popped up these past few days.
 
And the drought buster is underway here in the upstate. Steady rain falling

74 on the car thermometer. Winning

Edit:70*
 
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14DC0F1B-6FBC-4082-A8EB-0F181F3D32A7.png Can’t complain! Everything moving NNW!
 
Most of the short range models show me dry for the next 24 hours northwest of Atlanta. Glad for those east.
 
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88 and sunny at the house. I'll be watering this evening

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