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May Flowers

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by metwannabe, Apr 25, 2018.

  1. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Let'er rip tater chip..... let's get summer started.
     
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  2. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Well, let's see where this takes us ...

    814temp.new.gif CFSv2.NaT2m.20180425.201805.gif gfs_T2ma_us_fh126-126.gif gfs_T2ma_us_fh138-138.gif gfs_T2ma_us_fh234-234.gif wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif
    Screen Shot 2018-04-25 at 6.42.41 PM.png
    cfs-avg_z500aMean_us_fh168-504.gif

    Mayhem or Mayflowers?
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2018
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  3. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    It would be Mayhem if the pattern goes back and forth like it's been doing the last few weeks.
     
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  4. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Hopefully, it continues. It is still spring and the back and forth makes the wx much more interesting. We'll probably have nearly 3 months of monotonous and uncomfy heat/humidity day after day June-August.
     
  5. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    All I was/am trying to point out in the initial post is ... who knows ... whoda thunk April after February?
    Could be ... no ... will be ... interesting ... ;)
    ... and only 3 months ... what a blessing that would be ... :cool:
    ~~~~~~~~
    In the meantime ... 'night all ... gotta get up at 5:00 and go walk in this nice cool N FL air ... :p
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2018
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  6. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    Yay summer
     
  7. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

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    any 'vegas' odds on if the ICON depicts snow activity in the mountains of Tn/NC in May? I'm talking 4500' or higher here... I say 16:1.
     
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  8. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

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    I'm a severe weather novice.. what are some of the things to look for on tropical tidbits maps that might indicate potential severe or tornadic systems?
     
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  9. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

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    I mean, obviously this is something to look for I guess for southern plains/midwest storms... but what else? [​IMG]
     
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  10. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Just to follow up ...

    Brent may see some cool; looks like must of us should see a pleasant start to Mayflowers ...


    610temp.new.gif sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif
     
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  11. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    Anyone got the eps anomalies from day 10-15? I'm looking to put our bermuda grass next weekend but need highs at least in the 75-80 range to get good germination.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
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  12. SoutheastRidge

    SoutheastRidge Member

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    Looks like the northeast is gonna be scorchin ! Maybe 80s ?
     
  13. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    I really thought after this heat dome a weekend from now , it’s supposed to get back into the 70s/50s regime again!
     
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  14. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    It will ...
     
  15. EmersonGA

    EmersonGA Member

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    We have hail mixing in with the downpour in Emerson. Impressive!
     
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  16. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    Look for Sbcape values over 1000, dew points over 60, bulk shear over 40kts, winds at at 850mb over 40knts. You of course want to look for troughs and vort maxes at 500mb. Look for LIs over -6.

    That is just a few very basic things to get you started.
     
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  17. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Sounds like I should be on the lookout for some when they pivot over my area soon.
     
  18. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Maybe we don't have a dug in SER to deal with as a mid-term term phenomena?

    ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_fh24-240.gif
     
  19. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    Would be a nice winter look! That +PNA ridge! Transient SE ridges are the best!
     
  20. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Well, our SoutheastRidge poster is transient since he's in Indiana only temporarily. So, I guess that makes him the best!
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2018
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  21. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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  22. whatalife

    whatalife Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]



    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  23. JHS

    JHS Member

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    I do not see us getting really hot this year unless something changes. The big summer heat ridges should stay west of here, at least for a little while.

    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

    There is what i'm basing this on. The ridge should be in the 4 corners area to Texas most of the summer unless we really start to dry out.
     
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  24. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

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    That's usually a good indicator of where the extreme heat will be. Also, if the nino gets going that could also help us.
     
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  25. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Good catch, y'all ... :cool:

    Brief warm up and then indications are back to BN for most, and N for Larry and your Curmudgeon and a few others; not bad ...

    814temp.new.gif

    and (FWIW given the source) ...

    CFSv2.NaT2m.20180427.201805.gif

    CFSv2.NaT2mProb.20180427.201805.gif

    and ...

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_12z/tloop.html
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2018
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  26. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    Are you ok!? No 130s this year!?
     
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  27. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    Yep and soil moisture. They have almost 0 soil moisture in TX and OK and much of the four corners and that should let the heat ridge continuously self sustain. The SE is pretty moist over all, so that should temper widespread, extreme heat, IMO
     
  28. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    9599F7D1-B6B9-46A1-9375-ED832FB01F7F.png DT with some good stuff on hurricane season. Good point as to why , IMO , Atlantic season will be below normal!
     
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  29. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    It's worth a big bended knee, for sure ...
     
  30. MBell

    MBell "The Man" Member

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    GFS seems pretty consistent with swinging in some upper 30s for my area Monday Morning. I wouldn't be shocked. Looks like after that though, it begins to warm up somewhat.
     

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