Wintry Wintry Mix Likely January 23 2019
- Thread starter BirdManDoomW
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As much as I may not want to admit it I actually like the chances of a glaze here in Charlotte more than the last storm when we had a winter weather advisory for icing and picked up cold rain. Big difference for me is that we’re sitting at 39F with a dew point of 1 and the cold air arrived here first
The 3km NAM's surface dew points are off by about 10F area wide across much of upstate SC and NC. Supposed to be around the low-mid 10s already here in Charlotte, our dew point is near 0F.
Yep, this looks like a overachiever with ice, speaking relatively, like you said webb this already has the cold and very low dew points settled in, typically these are the ones that produce more ice than expected
Given my closest weather station, seems very much spot on with GVL (closest station to me in that map). Right now, I'm at 40 degrees with a wetbulb of 31, so if that doesn't go up, we could see some icing early tomorrow.
KCAE seem adament (as of last read) that there could be a small chance of ZR in the far Norhtern Midlands, but almost all SREF members say no and the NAM has had a cold bias this winter. They went with the GFS/Euro keeping wetbulb temps above freezing.
They also think precipitation will be fairly light and limit evaporational cooling
They also think precipitation will be fairly light and limit evaporational cooling
Hrrr is also off with dew points, said by 17z that they would be around 8-10 in clt and verified as 1-2
It's not really a storm, it's cold chasing moisture scenario. For most, nothing significant, mostly just flurries. Short range models do not show much in the way of frozen precip. Maybe better snow accumulations across TN/KY and the mountains.
That's pretty close to the mesoanalysis which shows wet bulbs below freezing NE of Atlanta and in the mid-upper 20s in NC. Definitely have some work to do to erode this antecedent arctic airmass.
Damn could only imagine if the 3km NAM actually got the surface dew points right at initialization lol, only running 10F below forecast thru hour 3, no big deal!
Not sure what the forecast was today here, but my station's temp is @ 44 with a DP of 22. I'm approximately 5 miles due east of downtown Atlanta. My winds were out of the ESE earlier today & now they're variable. Not expecting anything, but a wedge can always be tricky.
Last time I checked, mine was 3!!!! Solid stratocumulos now! Winds steady 5-10 from the NE! They were supposed to be SE by now!
My dew point is 1 right now and temp never made it out of the 30’s today was supposed to get into the low 40’s GSP gave me a special weather statement for now
I meant to fix your username ill do that tonightSouthend Charlotte (close to Uptown)
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Here's what GSP had to say to me on twitter in case anyone was curious. Straight from the horse's mouth.
