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Wintry Wintry Mix Likely January 23 2019

12z gfs trending better
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As much as I may not want to admit it I actually like the chances of a glaze here in Charlotte more than the last storm when we had a winter weather advisory for icing and picked up cold rain. Big difference for me is that we’re sitting at 39F with a dew point of 1 and the cold air arrived here first
 
Does this storm still have legs or have forecast models backed off? Local Mets aren’t talking about it.
 
Yep, this looks like a overachiever with ice, speaking relatively, like you said webb this already has the cold and very low dew points settled in, typically these are the ones that produce more ice than expected
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 3km NAM's surface dew points are off by about 10F area wide across much of upstate SC and NC. Supposed to be around the low-mid 10s already here in Charlotte, our dew point is near 0F.
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Given my closest weather station, seems very much spot on with GVL (closest station to me in that map). Right now, I'm at 40 degrees with a wetbulb of 31, so if that doesn't go up, we could see some icing early tomorrow.
 
KCAE seem adament (as of last read) that there could be a small chance of ZR in the far Norhtern Midlands, but almost all SREF members say no and the NAM has had a cold bias this winter. They went with the GFS/Euro keeping wetbulb temps above freezing.

They also think precipitation will be fairly light and limit evaporational cooling
 
Hrrr is also off with dew points, said by 17z that they would be around 8-10 in clt and verified as 1-2
 
Pup12 said:
Does this storm still have legs or have forecast models backed off? Local Mets aren’t talking about it.
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It's not really a storm, it's cold chasing moisture scenario. For most, nothing significant, mostly just flurries. Short range models do not show much in the way of frozen precip. Maybe better snow accumulations across TN/KY and the mountains.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Given my closest weather station, seems very much spot on with GVL (closest station to me in that map). Right now, I'm at 40 degrees with a wetbulb of 31, so if that doesn't go up, we could see some icing early tomorrow.
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That's pretty close to the mesoanalysis which shows wet bulbs below freezing NE of Atlanta and in the mid-upper 20s in NC. Definitely have some work to do to erode this antecedent arctic airmass.

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Not sure what the forecast was today here, but my station's temp is @ 44 with a DP of 22. I'm approximately 5 miles due east of downtown Atlanta. My winds were out of the ESE earlier today & now they're variable. Not expecting anything, but a wedge can always be tricky.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 3km NAM's surface dew points are off by about 10F area wide across much of upstate SC and NC. Supposed to be around the low-mid 10s already here in Charlotte, our dew point is near 0F.
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Last time I checked, mine was 3!!!! Solid stratocumulos now! Winds steady 5-10 from the NE! They were supposed to be SE by now!
 
Southend Charlotte (close to Uptown)
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My dew point is 1 right now and temp never made it out of the 30’s today was supposed to get into the low 40’s GSP gave me a special weather statement for now
 
WxWatch said:
It's not really a storm, it's cold chasing moisture scenario. For most, nothing significant, mostly just flurries. Short range models do not show much in the way of frozen precip. Maybe better snow accumulations across TN/KY and the mountains.
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Hey, I'll be excited just to see flurries LOL. I'm more excited about next week
 
I actually agree with the rgem, during those breaks, there will likely still be freezing mist vs light ZR
 
Still clear with only a few high clouds in sight here in Salisbury Nc, get radiational cooling and that would only help aid in cooler sfc temps
 
I'm probably too far SW (as I've been all winter long with these CAD events), but maybe I'll get a light glaze. High temp so far is 40.9, currently 40.5 with a dp of 15. Maybe just maybe I'll get some ice.
 
18z Nam looks interesting up here. Obviously snow totals will not be anywhere near what this is showing but it’s an improvement.
 

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