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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Webberweather53 said:
The Euro is still all in for Columbia and actually looks better in upstate SC & even towards Greenville-Spartanburg, likely because the storm moves so far south on this run that less moisture gets blocked by the mountains
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What about Monday/Tuesday here in N Foothills? Thought we might have a shot then but really doubting it now also.


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BIG FROSTY said:
What about Monday/Tuesday here in N Foothills? Thought we might have a shot then but really doubting it now also.


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I still think Monday-Tuesday is okay there for now at least until it becomes very evident otherwise this isn't the case. Even extremely minute changes in any one of the 3 s/ws phasing near the eastern seaboard will have dramatic consequences in the outcome of this storm and there's far too much uncertainty atm to rule anyone near and/or NW of the Triad out of the game.
Oth, I think this event could perform precip wise... Isentropic lifting over a remnant CAD dome w/ a bomb near or just offshore is a recipe for modeling failure wrt depiction of inland precipitation NW of the LP center, and this dearth of precip may also mean the models underestimate the associated dynamical cooling near & NW of the primary coastal low. Just as recently as Matthew we saw what can happen w/ a massive low pressure area throwing moisture over a relatively cooler inland CAD dome. Even in real-time, as the hurricane was over NC the models still poorly depicted and vastly underestimated the extent and intensity of the precipitation north & west of the storm, which had disastrous implications for those that were originally forecast to be near or just north & west of the heaviest precipitation. Hence, I would probably lean towards expecting more precip to the NW of this low over NC and into portions of VA. A storm like this is how the foothills and blue ridge get hit at this time of the year (if at all)...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I still think Monday-Tuesday is okay there for now at least until it becomes very evident otherwise this isn't the case. Even extremely minute changes in any one of the 3 s/ws phasing near the eastern seaboard will have dramatic consequences in the outcome of this storm and there's far too much uncertainty atm to rule anyone near and/or NW of the Triad out of the game.
Oth, I think this event could perform precip wise... Isentropic lifting over a remnant CAD dome w/ a bomb near or just offshore is a recipe for modeling failure wrt depiction of inland precipitation NW of the LP center, and this dearth of precip may also mean the models underestimate the associated dynamical cooling near & NW of the primary coastal low. Just as recently as Matthew we saw what can happen w/ a massive low pressure area throwing moisture over a relatively cooler inland CAD dome. Even in real-time, as the hurricane was over NC the models still poorly depicted and vastly underestimated the extent and intensity of the precipitation north & west of the storm, which had disastrous implications for those that were originally forecast to be near or just north & west of the heaviest precipitation. Hence, I would probably lean towards expecting more precip to the NW of this low over NC and into portions of VA. A storm like this is how the foothills and blue ridge get hit at this time of the year (if at all)...
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Thank you Sir, I appreciate the response and explanation of the possible scenario!! Would Love to see a decent snow before warmth sets in for good.


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The NAM 4KM is smoking something at 6Z. Throw it out. It initialized a heavy band of precip at hour 2, which doesn't exist and adds snow to Tennessee that isn't going to happen.
nam4km_ref_frzn_seus_4.png

Also, it was near freezing this morning across my area, so maybe the temps will end differently. :p
 
Well...I still think there will be some snow breaking out, but this quickly went downhill for the first shot.
 
4e574309898ca74ca3a9083a3f41d339.jpg


Can't get a good picture, but getting a good snow at BNA! Heading to NYC for the blizzard


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