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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Would say that this run is probably 1-2", locally higher in TN (probably just up to 4") which is better than nothing. North TN does get shut out though..
 
00z CMC lol
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As some have stated before, the snow depth products (available on Pivotal at least) are more realistic than the accumulated snowfall products even though the latter are prettier to look at and give more people hope :)
 
CMC definitely took a step in the direction of a quicker triple phase near the SE US w/ the storm on Mon/Tue. The northernmost shortwave just passed over 3 upper air stations in north-central British Columbia and Southern Alaska and that seemed to have an immediate impact on the model's handling of this s/w. Dug much deeper/further SW this run, which leads to more rapid cyclogenesis and intensification near the Carolinas
 
Webberweather53 said:
CMC definitely took a step in the direction of a quicker triple phase near the SE US w/ the storm on Mon/Tue. The northernmost shortwave just passed over 3 upper air stations in north-central British Columbia and Southern Alaska and that seemed to have an immediate impact on the model's handling of this s/w. Dug much deeper/further SW this run, which leads to more rapid cyclogenesis and intensification near the Carolinas
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Would a triple phaser put Al and Ga into the game?
 
Thanks guys. I guess the triple phaser just won't work for me. I am stilling hoping for some snow from this first system :)
 
I still think for Tennessee that the northern parts are going to get more than is being shown. I still think that the area of precip will be more expansive to the north than now modeled, it almost always happens. Maybe not a northern trend, although I still wouldn't rule out the precip being more north but at least more precip on the northern side of the system than is being modeled. I might be wrong but with the gfs juicing up some it gives me some confidence anyway.
 
The Euro is still all in for Columbia and actually looks better in upstate SC & even towards Greenville-Spartanburg, likely because the storm moves so far south on this run that less moisture gets blocked by the mountains
ecmwf_tsnow_nc_8.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro is still all in for Columbia and actually looks better in upstate SC & even towards Greenville-Spartanburg, likely because the storm moves so far south on this run that less moisture gets blocked by the mountains
View attachment 456
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The Trend have been for moisture to move more South, So maybe Columbia,SC will cash out with this event.
 
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