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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Hey Eric, where would that triple phase ideally need to take place for me and you here in the Triangle? Would a triple phase really put us in the game outside the mountains?
 
Great gefs run for western NC for the non/tue storm
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Cary_Snow95 said:
Hey Eric, where would that triple phase ideally need to take place for me and you here in the Triangle? Would a triple phase really put us in the game outside the mountains?
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Essentially we need to thread the needle very meticulously, even a minor error in the track, intensity, and coverage/intensity of precipitation and availability of ambient cold air &/or the ferocity of a robust a geostrophic cross-frontal circulation that provides a continuously renewable supply of cold air that is produced via damming east of the Appalachians are all important considerations.The triple phase needs to occur somewhat late (similar to what the models have right now, perhaps a touch sooner if anything) and the wave needs to be relatively flat for RDU to score, oth we need a storm that's robust to induce enough dynamic cooling to force the column to be sufficiently cold for snow. In most cases, w/ big Miller As (minus a few obvious exceptions) RDU is near to slightly on the warm side of the rain-snow line w/ most of the legitimate snows occurring in the mountains and essentially along and northwest of a line extending from Roxboro thru Greensboro & Winston-Salem, into Statesville to Hendersonville and points northwestward. Climatology and history of these events argue that these aforementioned areas will likely be in relatively close proximity to the rain-snow line here yet again, but there's certainly an outside chance this won't necessarily be the case...
 
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Of course the 00z euro ups the anti for Tennessee this weekend


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6Z NAM was great garbage. In fact, the entire 6Z and 0Z suite was way worse. I expect cold rain here. There may be some flakes out towards Rome, but the real snow will be in the far north mountains. It would take a trolling system to give me snow out of this now :p.
 
I know it's crazy not to discount the Nam completely given the BIG 3 aren't showing anything (and neither are their ensembles) for Sunday, but man it wouldn't be that hard to get the Nam solution. The wave more SW and stronger at 06z Sun, is a little less flat and more headed towards neutral and just slightly stronger 12z Sun if you compare the 500mb vort maps - but really it's not much.

If we have a chance at anything changing it's with the 12z/18z/00z runs tonight as, believe it or not, the energy involve is still likely not sampled completely. This tends to not really work out for us anyway, but it's worth watching at least until 00z tonight as the energy involved isn't a very large scale feature which is often modeled good enough newly ingested data to be irrelevant (a closed ULL coming ashore, for instance)

FWIW if it seems I'm overly optimistic, I'm not. I don't really believe the Nam and I'm pretty much all in on a dusting or less for Central NC...just posting what can still happen for the optimistic!
 
NAM is still pretty good here. The NAM did the best with the Jan storm here. Of course, it was the one showing the least amount of snow. That seems to be the smart thing to do, go with the one that shows the least. But none of the models are consistently right when it comes to winter storms here and the amount of snow. There is just too much involved when it comes to getting snow here to depend on any of them to get it right consistently. The best thing to do is just look at them all, see all the possible outcomes they show, and then just wait and see what happens. But it is fun to see what could happen.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
NAM is still pretty good here. The NAM did the best with the Jan storm here. Of course, it was the one showing the least amount of snow. That seems to be the smart thing to do, go with the one that shows the least. But none of the models are consistently right when it comes to winter storms storms here and the amount of snow. There is just too much involved when it comes to getting snow here to depend on any of them to get it right consistently. The best thing to do is just look at them all, see all the possible outcomes they show, and then just wait and see what happens. But it is fun to see what could happen.
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always figure a quarter of what they show and you will be close if a storm verifies
 
Jon said:
I know it's crazy not to discount the Nam completely given the BIG 3 aren't showing anything (and neither are their ensembles) for Sunday, but man it wouldn't be that hard to get the Nam solution. The wave more SW and stronger at 06z Sun, is a little less flat and more headed towards neutral and just slightly stronger 12z Sun if you compare the 500mb vort maps - but really it's not much.

If we have a chance at anything changing it's with the 12z/18z/00z runs tonight as, believe it or not, the energy involve is still likely not sampled completely. This tends to not really work out for us anyway, but it's worth watching at least until 00z tonight as the energy involved isn't a very large scale feature which is often modeled good enough newly ingested data to be irrelevant (a closed ULL coming ashore, for instance)

FWIW if it seems I'm overly optimistic, I'm not. I don't really believe the Nam and I'm pretty much all in on a dusting or less for Central NC...just posting what can still happen for the optimistic!
Click to expand...
There are just enough gefs and eps members showing something close to what the NAM (I mean few members) but just enough to keep hope alive, thanks for your analysis as always
 
POWERSTROKE said:
Definitely fun if you are a contractor like me. Put plows on take them off put them on take them off. Lol I rather just salt
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Speaking of salt, I believe as I was heading out the door this morning that one of our local stations was showing DOT already putting down brine?? Anyone else see this? I mean I hope it was recorded footage and they are just discussing it b/c otherwise that is about the biggest waste of tax payer dollars......
 
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