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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Euro has precip breaking out 125 miles south of other guidance and everybody dives head first off the cliff at D6. Lol “Back in my day” this was completely fine. The storm signal is still there and it’s still strong enough to be a threat. Even on the less than ideal Euro run. If I were in CAE I would be rooting for something in between the GFS and Euro.
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Maybe I'm missing something here.... but what exactly constitutes someone diving off the cliff? Just because we don't like the trend or even if we say "we're losing our storm" that's not cliff diving, that's just stating what the current modeling is showing. Man you calling others out for cliff diving, now I've seen everything.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I would be thrilled with that look even if we were only 2-3 days out. If the synoptic pattern remains largely the same, overrunning setups in the SE US are very notorious for ticking NWward & trending stronger all the way down to the last minute and busting high for precip (& snow if it's cold enough)

Aside from last week's winter storm, February 11, 2014 is another classic, recent example. Most of southern NC was forecast to see 1" maybe 2", ended up w/ nearly 4" at my house in Cumberland County and New Bern picked up 10"



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Here's the 500mb vort map the morning this storm started. Shortwave hanging back over the SW US, northern stream wave digging into the Lakes & New England w/ deep layer westerly flow at 500mb. Hardly the most obvious winter storm look but it produced big time over parts of southern NC. Light-moderate snow fell all day, and it was all snow start to finish in Fayetteville.


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You can see my concern right? Lol :D
 
metwannabe said:
Maybe I'm missing something here.... but what exactly constitutes someone diving off the cliff? Just because we don't like the trend or even if we say "we're losing our storm" that's not cliff diving, that's just stating what the current modeling is showing. Man you calling others out for cliff diving, now I've seen everything.
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lol I’m not calling anyone out specifically. You can just feel when the collective mood is caving and I sometimes feel the need to reassure those that might not know how to read a weather map like you or I that everything is still ok ?? The towel still needs to be in your back pocket at this point!
 
smast16 said:
Well, i guess hell did freeze over. Jimmy and Brick on the same team.
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Euro member 8 has a good storm for me. And the rest have virtually nothing. ?
 
Somebody kill this winter and put it out of it's misery please.

I need to get off the internet so I'm not drawn to weather models anymore. lol.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Really hope the midlands of SC get something, remember it’s been over 6-7 years for some
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You must have the wrong Midlands, lol. I picked up 2" in mid-March of 2017. We had a couple of brief periods of moderate snow in the early winter of '17 and January of 2018, but nothing of any sort of significance during those storms.

If you wanna say we're going on three years of any accumulating snow, then you'll be correct.
 
To those asking why a thread was started. There was internal talks of actually starting it today if it was still around on the modeling anyways.

The main reasoning behind this the following:
1. The threat has begun to dominate the conversation in the pattern thread.
2. Regardless of how it shakes out, it is a larger signal for a threat of some sort around the South

My Point: At least now it has it's own thread to die in, instead of cluttering up the overall February discussion.
 
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