Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

[bud006]

My location (far Northeastern Forsyth County, next to Lake Lanier and close to the Hall and Dawson lines) looks like it stays at -1c, -2c at 850mb for most of the day tomorrow per the NAM 3K. Again, this is going to be super close.

--30--

 

[accu35]

Whats this lol.

 

[SD]

I will gladly forgive this event as being rain for the day tomorrow to get a closed upper low over the deep south and a blossoming snow band over NC.

 

[packfan98]

Wow! The National Weather Service afternoon discussion out of Raleigh is a big letdown after all of these great model runs for the Triad region. Here's a snippet:

...
There may be a sweet spot between the Triad and Triangle where some sleet and snow may fall and accumulate a bit on the elevated and grassy surfaces...snow will have a difficult time accumulating except for on elevated and grassy surfaces and under high precipitation rates. Generally less than an inch of snow is expected at this time, primarily between midnight and 7 AM Saturday.

 

[Claycochaser]

*cough* northern expansion.
If yall keep saying shift yall will give our southern people a keniption.

Once again, that's taking boundary and ground temps into consideration. As precip shifts north, that algo will show greater "snow depth" further north. But again, higher rates etc etc. Beating a dead dog to death...

 

[RollTide18]

12km NAM gives me next to nothing, 3km gives me 4 inches (yes i know its the entertainment purposes only map).

 

[Arcc]

It's not just an expansion. The heaviest snow axis is shifting to the north. Rome was not the winners in previous runs. Now it's one of the places in GA you'll want to be at if the NAM 3KM is to be believed. The 850mb temps are also now above 0c in the Atlanta area whereas in previous runs, it was below 0c for a lot of the storm.

On the image you posted showed positive totals for nearly all of central AL.

 

[RollTide18]

Whats this lol.

Something that I'm about to hug like the RAP

 

[deltadog03]

Keep an eye on HRRR trending colder and a bit south of other guidance

 

[LovingGulfLows]

On the image you posted showed positive totals for nearly all of central AL.

Keep in mind, I'm not just referring to snow depth either. The 0c 850mb isotherm is creeping more northward every run on the NAM. That to me is a northern shift, not just a northern expansion of the precip. shield.

 

[RollTide18]

*cough* northern expansion.
If yall keep saying shift yall will give our southern people a keniption.

I've had about three of those in the past 24 hrs *partially kidding*

 

[accu35]

Something that I'm about to hug like the RAP

Short range models are the best :weenie::weenie:

 

[deltadog03]

19z HRRR continues to show RDU flipping to heavy snow early tomorrow morning

I am going to watch HRRR closely. It's been trending colder each run. Not as far NW wither

 

[Claycochaser]

On the image you posted showed positive totals for nearly all of central AL.

Oh yeah, I know...but the greater "change" shows up further north than recent runs due to the fact that precip is further north than recent runs...even though that corridor may not see as Much snowfall as you or I. Am I rambling at this point?

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Keep an eye on HRRR trending colder and a bit south of other guidance

Was that the one from Jan of this year that blew it? Or am I thinking of the RAP?

 

[Brick Tamland]

18z NAM is bombs away off of the NC coast 997 and still going....nice snow band across the state Saturday...

19z HRRR continues to show RDU flipping to heavy snow early tomorrow morning

I will gladly forgive this event as being rain for the day tomorrow to get a closed upper low over the deep south and a blossoming snow band over NC.

HRRR continues to look great, too. Maybe we'll end up with something decent after all.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Was that the one from Jan of this year that blew it? Or am I thinking of the RAP?

The HRRR did well in the January storm. The RAP was the one that failed miserably. Folks in Atlanta will want to hope the HRRR is right.

 

[RollTide18]

HRRR showing a mix here tomorrow morning which none of the other models are showing, we'll see.

 

[dsaur]

You have been in the hot zone the whole time and we are like 12-18 hours from showtime.

Is your roof in pretty good shape ?

Yeah, put a new one on last year. Me and a buddy. Won't be doing that again, lol. But I won't be celebrating until I get some heavy wet snow and sleet on it, lol. The models now move me in and out, and the mets move me in and out, and it's the worst when it's not cold and you are waiting on the change over. Every event for the last few years that reached me, reached me maybe an hour before the rain left. It takes forever to cool down here. I'd much rather the cold be in place, so you know whatever falls is going to freeze, and just waiting for it to come up into the cold air. Waiting a change over is like simultaneous root canals.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Yeah, put a new one on last year. Me and a buddy. Won't be doing that again, lol. But I won't be celebrating until I get some heavy wet snow and sleet on it, lol. The models now move me in and out, and the mets move me in and out, and it's the worst when it's not cold and you are waiting on the change over. Every event for the last few years that reached me, reached me maybe an hour before the rain left. It takes forever to cool down here. I'd much rather the cold be in place, so you know whatever falls is going to freeze, and just waiting for it to come up into the cold air. Waiting a change over is like simultaneous root canals.

Oh yeah that agonizing wait on the changeover. Seems like it takes forever and is so frustrating. Sometimes it never changes over lmao.