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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

Loganelliott99 said:
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I mean it's a given that CPC will go with whatever climo associated with the ENSO state. They are a government office and probably don't wanna risk predicting the more volatile elements that can drive winter patterns so far out.
 
I'm no weather expert by no means, but I mentioned a few times that the east based niña was going to kick in and we flipped soon after for pretty much rest of winter
 
I'll throw in my two cents. All the forecasters that painted the entire Southern US with below average precipitation due to La Nina should take those Ocean Anomaly charts with a grain of salt. In fact, print them up, and wipe your tucus with them.

I've noticed the weather in Florida has trended towards a more neutral-like ENSO pattern even though those SST Anomaly Maps are suggesting dry and warm across the Southern States. There has been a far more active subtropical jet stream that's coming out of the Central Pacific due to the +WPO Oscillation. It has cause some wet and dreary conditions. It's been a much more comfortable October than past years. I imagine the 3.4 ENSO Region will start to warm as the SOI drops to neutral, or even negative, territory. Areas from Texas to the Carolinas will experience a wetter pattern than forecast originally forecast. I think the main even early winter will definitely occur in the Ohio Valley, MidWest and Interior NE, but wouldn't be surprised if the TN Valley got some action. In January, I think the Subtropical Jet and deep East Coast troughs with favorable blocking could set the stage for some sneaky Deep South Snowfalls in Northern Alabama to the Carolinas and VA. I think the drought is gonna end real soon for the Eastern 1/3 of the country.
 
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Impressive stuff for November. Would love this kind of look in December or January though.


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Lordy, I'm on the Beach ,, , && My Misses would be like 4" ,, & be happy, even if it's wet soft Slushy stuff.. ? Of snow that is.. ?
 
I'm going rouge:

Winter will be drier than average with no real drought relief. I'm not saying it's going to be 100 and no rain for 3 months, i just think it'll be below average with no significant relief.

We won't see above avg rains until spring at the earliest.
 
Greenville, SC is due for a big snowstorm. The last top 10 snowstorm they had was in 1993.
 
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