Way earlier this year in my part of upstate SC. At this rate we will have peak color in the next week or two.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
That missed Raleigh for the most part though but nailed much of the south. A system with that same strength tracking 75 miles farther south with more cold air would be one for the record books though.
Something about like the winter of 1998-99. We had 2 icestorms around the holidays, then winter was mostly over. That 2nd icestorm nailed the CAD areas in both Carolinas and would have been even worse had temps not warmed up. They were in the mid to upper 20's early on in that event.
Chazwin
Member
I remember those two ice storms as the first one ended as light snow overnight on Christmas Eve… the only time I’ve woke up at my home on Christmas morning with snow on the ground. There was actually a stretch of quite cold weather during the middle part of February 1999… there was an upper low that brought a significant snow to the CLT area and much of the NC Piedmont around the 18th I believe and it was followed by another clipper type system a few days later. Then around the middle of March there was a snow/mix event for the NC Piedmont and Foothills. I could see this winter being more like 2000-01, which was also a 3rd year Niña… squarely below average from mid November until the 2nd week in January and then mainly a torch. One thing to watch for is how soon the Niña begins to break down as it’s expected now to sometime in the 2nd half of the winter. In late January 2000, the Niña began breaking down in late January and despite the overall warm pattern, there was several strong CADs… one of which brought a significant snow/ice event to the NC Foothills and east along the I-40 corridor
On like Donkey Kong! 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Accuweather predicting a mild below average snow this winter due to a volcano that erupted. Do volcano’s have that much interaction with weather?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Chazwin
Member
I don’t really think that the article was stating the volcanic eruption as a reason, but more so as a wildcard. I read the article and it seemed they were trying to lean more on Niña climo more than anything. Volcanic eruptions absolutely can have an impact on weather patterns across the globe… it’s just difficult for forecasters to see what the effects will be. The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 precipitated the “Year without a summer” across the northern hemisphere in 1816. Closer to our time, the eruption of Mt Pinatubo in late 1991 appears to have helped set up a very stormy winter in 1992-93 for North America that was culminated by the March 1993 Superstorm
While true volcanic eruptions can emit enough smoke to cool the earth, that's only in the major cases. The Tonga volcano may have the opposite effect due to the record-breaking amount of water vapor that it released.
/https%3A%2F%2Ftf-cmsv2-smithsonianmag-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Ffiler_public%2Fe6%2F44%2Fe6445aaf-4650-4662-b361-3ffd4fc4fd9a%2Fgettyimages-1237820698.jpg)
Tonga Volcanic Eruption Blasted an Enormous Plume of Water Vapor Into the Atmosphere
NASA scientists say the intrusion could warm the Earth's surface
Well, here's what the USGS says..
I honestly think.. (Leaving politics & Grant funding aside)..
We honestly have NO "real-time",, Historical, Data too confirm, one way or the other effects on the Northern/Southern Hemispheres of Our Planet, Of Huge, or much even less smaller (Numerious), events, too really make a judgement call, (Or even a attempt of Modeling!)..
For example, has, or if even, it can be, the current eruption of Italy's Stromboli Volcano be factored into the current weather patterns?
They can & do cause Massive land, features, geological & Topographical changes..
www.yahoo.com
""
Yes, volcanoes can affect weather and the Earth's climate. Following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, cooler than normal temperatures were recorded worldwide and brilliant sunsets and sunrises were attributed to this eruption that sent fine ash and gases high into the stratosphere, forming a large volcanic cloud that drifted around the world.""
read more..
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/do-volcanoes-affect-weather
Also read, Year without a summer..
"In the summer of 1816, the Northern Hemisphere was plagued by a weather disruption of seemingly biblical proportions. Following a relatively ordinary early spring, temperatures in the eastern United States plunged back below freezing, and communities from New England to Virginia experienced heavy snowfalls and crop-killing frost during June, July and August.""
www.history.com
I honestly think.. (Leaving politics & Grant funding aside)..
We honestly have NO "real-time",, Historical, Data too confirm, one way or the other effects on the Northern/Southern Hemispheres of Our Planet, Of Huge, or much even less smaller (Numerious), events, too really make a judgement call, (Or even a attempt of Modeling!)..
For example, has, or if even, it can be, the current eruption of Italy's Stromboli Volcano be factored into the current weather patterns?
They can & do cause Massive land, features, geological & Topographical changes..
A New "Baby" Island Has Been Spotted in the Middle of the Ocean After Volcano Eruption..
A New "Baby" Island Has Been Spotted in the Middle of the Ocean After Volcano Eruption
When an underwater volcano erupted in the middle of the ocean this month, it left something unexpected behind: A "baby" island scientists observed mere hours after the eruption. The toddler has continued to grow in the weeks since. But experts say it may not last. Read on to find out why. 1...
That said..""
Do volcanoes affect weather?
Yes, volcanoes can affect weather and the Earth's climate. Following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, cooler than normal temperatures were recorded worldwide and brilliant sunsets and sunrises were attributed to this eruption that sent fine ash and gases high into the stratosphere, forming a large volcanic cloud that drifted around the world.""
read more..
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/do-volcanoes-affect-weather
Also read, Year without a summer..
"In the summer of 1816, the Northern Hemisphere was plagued by a weather disruption of seemingly biblical proportions. Following a relatively ordinary early spring, temperatures in the eastern United States plunged back below freezing, and communities from New England to Virginia experienced heavy snowfalls and crop-killing frost during June, July and August.""
What was the “Year Without a Summer”?
In the summer of 1816, the Northern Hemisphere was plagued by a weather disruption of seemingly biblical proportions. Following a relatively ordinary early spring, temperatures in the eastern United States plunged back below freezing, and communities from New England to Virginia experienced...
www.history.com
I've been keeping a running archive of fantasy land storms for the past four years. They usually start around this time.
Winter 2022/2023 Model Archive
Tis' the season for the fourth annual Winter Archive Thread! The intent of this thread is to include the first fantasy snows of the season, and the continuous model snowstorms in lower elevations (mainly from the GFS). Statistically, this is the latest (by a day) that a model run has triggered...
southernwx.com
Wintry - Winter 2021/2022 Model Archive
Fall/Winter is coming! This is much earlier than I anticipated to start the thread, but nevertheless, I'm excited! This is our third edition of the Winter Archive thread series! I'm hoping that we actually get a memorable storm this time around. This thread should track the successes and...
southernwx.com
Pattern - Winter 2020/2021 Model Archive
It's the moment you've all been waiting for, this year's winter archive thread! For the newer folks, I had done this last year, basically creating a gif of every single run in the SE that showed some snow, to track successes and failures throughout the year. Last year was primarily experimental...
southernwx.com
Pattern - Winter 2019/2020 Model Archive
Hopefully, this is an appropriate thread, I saw the MA forum doing this and thought it was a good idea. Mods/Admins feel free to delete this The purpose of this thread would be to organize all the wintery models in this thread so we can get excited about all the model "firsts" Essentially...
southernwx.com
I remember that. It was quite funny I made one of my snow potions that night. It was a mixture of soap potato peels and whatever else was left over from supper I'd mix it all up in a pot and put it on the porch. Told my nana it would create snow
. Well that night it worked best Christmas present ever.
"Climate forecast models indicate the 2022-23 La Niña will likely stay in the range of either being weak or moderate through the country’s winter."
www.foxweather.com
Lets hope it's weak.
La Nina winter will mean parts of US will feel like a tundra but snowy wonderlands could be hard to come by
The strength of a La Niña provides clues on how significant winter weather could be this season.
Lets hope it's weak.
Looks like lots of SER
How much is Nina climo factored into those models? Like, I'm wondering what the weighting is.
iGRXY
Member
One reason it's hard to take long range forecasting into consideration because it generally just rides with whatever the ENSO state is. If you look at NOAA's winter projections you can almost guarantee it'll be heavy SER since we are in a Nina.
When I see a crazy-eyed individual with a hoodie giving a winter forecast, I scroll to the next video in my feed haha
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,289
- Reaction score
- 3,246
I remember last year when folks were cheering for the SER/WAR at times since it created a more amplified pattern which allowed more juiced up storms riding along the boundary.