Way earlier this year in my part of upstate SC. At this rate we will have peak color in the next week or two.Hope you're right. I'm waiting to see when and if we get a big bird migration. The leaves seem to be changing earlier this year.
Way earlier this year in my part of upstate SC. At this rate we will have peak color in the next week or two.Hope you're right. I'm waiting to see when and if we get a big bird migration. The leaves seem to be changing earlier this year.
That missed Raleigh for the most part though but nailed much of the south. A system with that same strength tracking 75 miles farther south with more cold air would be one for the record books though.I hope Zaria is a nasty 1993 type to finish it off.
Something about like the winter of 1998-99. We had 2 icestorms around the holidays, then winter was mostly over. That 2nd icestorm nailed the CAD areas in both Carolinas and would have been even worse had temps not warmed up. They were in the mid to upper 20's early on in that event.Personally, I think we’re lining up to have much more of a classical looking Niña when compared to the last two years. A front loaded winter that is below average through the first half of January and then we probably torch late January and much of February. I still think most of us will end up a degree or two above average for the total winter.
I remember those two ice storms as the first one ended as light snow overnight on Christmas Eve… the only time I’ve woke up at my home on Christmas morning with snow on the ground. There was actually a stretch of quite cold weather during the middle part of February 1999… there was an upper low that brought a significant snow to the CLT area and much of the NC Piedmont around the 18th I believe and it was followed by another clipper type system a few days later. Then around the middle of March there was a snow/mix event for the NC Piedmont and Foothills. I could see this winter being more like 2000-01, which was also a 3rd year Niña… squarely below average from mid November until the 2nd week in January and then mainly a torch. One thing to watch for is how soon the Niña begins to break down as it’s expected now to sometime in the 2nd half of the winter. In late January 2000, the Niña began breaking down in late January and despite the overall warm pattern, there was several strong CADs… one of which brought a significant snow/ice event to the NC Foothills and east along the I-40 corridorSomething about like the winter of 1998-99. We had 2 icestorms around the holidays, then winter was mostly over. That 2nd icestorm nailed the CAD areas in both Carolinas and would have been even worse had temps not warmed up. They were in the mid to upper 20's early on in that event.
I don’t really think that the article was stating the volcanic eruption as a reason, but more so as a wildcard. I read the article and it seemed they were trying to lean more on Niña climo more than anything. Volcanic eruptions absolutely can have an impact on weather patterns across the globe… it’s just difficult for forecasters to see what the effects will be. The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 precipitated the “Year without a summer” across the northern hemisphere in 1816. Closer to our time, the eruption of Mt Pinatubo in late 1991 appears to have helped set up a very stormy winter in 1992-93 for North America that was culminated by the March 1993 SuperstormAccuweather predicting a mild below average snow this winter due to a volcano that erupted. Do volcano’s have that much interaction with weather?
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While true volcanic eruptions can emit enough smoke to cool the earth, that's only in the major cases. The Tonga volcano may have the opposite effect due to the record-breaking amount of water vapor that it released.I don’t really think that the article was stating the volcanic eruption as a reason, but more so as a wildcard. I read the article and it seemed they were trying to lean more on Niña climo more than anything. Volcanic eruptions absolutely can have an impact on weather patterns across the globe… it’s just difficult for forecasters to see what the effects will be. The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 precipitated the “Year without a summer” across the northern hemisphere in 1816. Closer to our time, the eruption of Mt Pinatubo in late 1991 appears to have helped set up a very stormy winter in 1992-93 for North America that was culminated by the March 1993 Superstorm
I've been keeping a running archive of fantasy land storms for the past four years. They usually start around this time.Just curious because I am new here, what is the earliest that you guys have started to see “fantasy land” winter storms start showing on the model runs for the southeast? Should we start seeing them soon?
I remember that. It was quite funny I made one of my snow potions that night. It was a mixture of soap potato peels and whatever else was left over from supper I'd mix it all up in a pot and put it on the porch. Told my nana it would create snowI remember those two ice storms as the first one ended as light snow overnight on Christmas Eve… the only time I’ve woke up at my home on Christmas morning with snow on the ground. There was actually a stretch of quite cold weather during the middle part of February 1999… there was an upper low that brought a significant snow to the CLT area and much of the NC Piedmont around the 18th I believe and it was followed by another clipper type system a few days later. Then around the middle of March there was a snow/mix event for the NC Piedmont and Foothills. I could see this winter being more like 2000-01, which was also a 3rd year Niña… squarely below average from mid November until the 2nd week in January and then mainly a torch. One thing to watch for is how soon the Niña begins to break down as it’s expected now to sometime in the 2nd half of the winter. In late January 2000, the Niña began breaking down in late January and despite the overall warm pattern, there was several strong CADs… one of which brought a significant snow/ice event to the NC Foothills and east along the I-40 corridor
How much is Nina climo factored into those models? Like, I'm wondering what the weighting is.Looks like lots of SER
One reason it's hard to take long range forecasting into consideration because it generally just rides with whatever the ENSO state is. If you look at NOAA's winter projections you can almost guarantee it'll be heavy SER since we are in a Nina.How much is Nina climo factored into those models? Like, I'm wondering what the weighting is.
When I see a crazy-eyed individual with a hoodie giving a winter forecast, I scroll to the next video in my feed hahaI like what this guy has to say about a +PDO
A lot of SER. So winter is already cancelled. Great.