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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

Rain Cold said:
Hope you're right. I'm waiting to see when and if we get a big bird migration. The leaves seem to be changing earlier this year.
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What are the persimmon seeds looking like??
Saw a wooly worm yesterday it had a huge central brown band maybe 60% of its body and two tiny tips of black, maybe 20 and 20 % each??
 
Arcc said:
I normally dont buy things like this, but something is strangely up with insects and animals. The ants have been invading my house constantly and now both of my bee hives have left in the middle of fall nectar flow to find better hive sites.. I'm starting to think we have a blistering cold winter coming. May not be snowy, but we may end up sick of it.
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Has the lack of rain and cooler temps not contributed to this some?
 
Coolest October since 2011. Winter of 2012 was very warm with little snow. Also was a La Niña. Sure hope we don’t repeat that. What’s y’all’s thoughts?


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Loganelliott99 said:
Coolest October since 2011. Winter of 2012 was very warm with little snow. Also was a La Niña. Sure hope we don’t repeat that. What’s y’all’s thoughts?


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The one big thing about that winter is that even though October was cool, the Polar vortex was already showing signs that it was going to be very wound up and that we were would most likely have a predominately positive AO for the winter.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Coolest October since 2011. Winter of 2012 was very warm with little snow. Also was a La Niña. Sure hope we don’t repeat that. What’s y’all’s thoughts?


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Hopefully! We are due for sure . Most pleasant winter ever . Ain’t nobody got time for brutal cold !
 
You all know my (woolly worm type) thoughts, but I've seldom seen winter forecast work out for anybody. Just get me to Thanksgiving, and I'll start looking at the long-range models / indices for two-week pattern changes. We have to live closer to the present than too far in the future.
 
Chazwin said:
The one big thing about that winter is that even though October was cool, the Polar vortex was already showing signs that it was going to be very wound up and that we were would most likely have a predominately positive AO for the winter.
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So are we not seeing that so far this October? Sorry I don’t read much into the polar vortex


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Loganelliott99 said:
Coolest October since 2011. Winter of 2012 was very warm with little snow. Also was a La Niña. Sure hope we don’t repeat that. What’s y’all’s thoughts?


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I wouldn’t equate a cold October with a Warm Winter. For instance, 2009 was a well below average October, and then 2010 was a cold and snowy winter. However, the PDO continues to remain solidly negative, as well as the moderate La Niña tele-connects to several bouts of the Southeast Ridge. However, the current state of the PV and the Eurasian snow cover argues that we’ll see multiple Arctic outbreaks somewhere in the US (unlike 2012).
 
Ollie Williams said:
I wouldn’t equate a cold October with a Warm Winter. For instance, 2009 was a well below average October, and then 2010 was a cold and snowy winter. However, the PDO continues to remain solidly negative, as well as the moderate La Niña tele-connects to several bouts of the Southeast Ridge. However, the current state of the PV and the Eurasian snow cover argues that we’ll see multiple Arctic outbreaks somewhere in the US (unlike 2012).
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Thanks for that! We saw a white Christmas that year. Could be interesting!


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J.C. said:
Has the lack of rain and cooler temps not contributed to this some?
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Doubtful, the wildflowers are incredible this year because we received good rains here in August and Sept and while cool and nice it hasn’t been really abnormally cold.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I wouldn’t equate a cold October with a Warm Winter. For instance, 2009 was a well below average October, and then 2010 was a cold and snowy winter. However, the PDO continues to remain solidly negative, as well as the moderate La Niña tele-connects to several bouts of the Southeast Ridge. However, the current state of the PV and the Eurasian snow cover argues that we’ll see multiple Arctic outbreaks somewhere in the US (unlike 2012).
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I think the pacific is trending more +PDO state. Whether that lasts, is anyone's guess this far out. This is the time where people will come up with forecasts on what he/she thinks will happen in boreal winter.
 
Itryatgolf said:
I think the pacific is trending more +PDO state. Whether that lasts, is anyone's guess this far out. This is the time where people will come up with forecasts on what he/she thinks will happen in boreal winter.
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Nope, still strongly negative because of the warm ocean waters along the Aleutians. The warm waters along the coast of California do not matter much with that.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

Information on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), often described as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability
www.ncei.noaa.gov www.ncei.noaa.gov
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm telling you...we might have a harsh winter, but the putting eggs in the SCE basket is a good way to set yourself up for disappointment.
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Yep just posting things I’m seeing. I certainly love seeing positives vs negatives at this point in the year but we all know how fast things turn to poop. Plus we live in the south so you can’t expect wall to wall cold for months in end especially in this climate. But I see big opportunity for upside for our region this winter.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Nope, still strongly negative because of the warm ocean waters along the Aleutians. The warm waters along the coast of California do not matter much with that.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

Information on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), often described as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability
www.ncei.noaa.gov www.ncei.noaa.gov
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Do you think this winter will be different than last winter? Triple dip niñas are rare
 
Itryatgolf said:
Do you think this winter will be different than last winter? Triple dip niñas are rare
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Personally, I think we’re lining up to have much more of a classical looking Niña when compared to the last two years. A front loaded winter that is below average through the first half of January and then we probably torch late January and much of February. I still think most of us will end up a degree or two above average for the total winter.
 
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