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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

SD said:
There are some hints on the seasonal models that are encouraging with the pv possibly residing on our side of the pole for once, a big pac ridge, and -nao. My biggest fear for this winter is slowly going away from a big SER to a strong TPV in Canada with mediocre ridging in both oceans with a zonal flow across the conus
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Shane, based on what you said, would we still get cold at times you think? Not sure many knew December would be that warm like it ended up being. I feel like if the pacific is in decent shape, we will get really cold at times, especially if the -NAO shows up. Third year niñas are tricky because not many sample sizes for them
 
From my 56 years here in NC, cold October and Novembers usually flip back above normal for the heart of winter. You might get a light slush fest in November before the flip, and then have to hope for something decent come February.
TW
 
SD said:
There are some hints on the seasonal models that are encouraging with the pv possibly residing on our side of the pole for once, a big pac ridge, and -nao. My biggest fear for this winter is slowly going away from a big SER to a strong TPV in Canada with mediocre ridging in both oceans with a zonal flow across the conus
Click to expand...
Shane, based on what you said, would we still get cold at times you think? Not sure many knew December would be that warm like it ended up being. I feel like if the pacific is in decent shape, we will get really cold at times, especially if the -NAO shows up. Third year niñas are tricky because not many sample sizes for the
NickyBGuarantee said:
A 2000-2001 analog for this winter… still too early to tell .. we need that -NAO to really get excited but I’m already excited with the +PNA support for the early season.View attachment 122850
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I know alot of the seasonal models, so far, are going with a -nao. Would be good to know how the pacific was with la niña in that year in 2000. Could be real good clues for this winter imo
 
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Not sure how good the source is but saw this article linked from Twitter:

Suggests higher than average Siberian snow coverage now could make the PV weaker this winter, supporting a -AO
 
ajr said:
Not sure how good the source is but saw this article linked from Twitter:

Suggests higher than average Siberian snow coverage now could make the PV weaker this winter, supporting a -AO
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Yeah, that’s Judah Cohen’s Snow Advancement Index (SAI). He swears by it, but I think it has mixed results. Regardless, we’re off to a good start.
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Tarheel1 said:
Can’t wait for another Halloween snowstorm for SC! That kickstarted the best winter ever!
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That ULL track for the time of the year was such an anomaly. I doubt we'll see another one of those so far South in a long time. If I remember correctly, even JB thought it'd correct back into the Virginia area. Short range models were honking pretty hard, even hours before, and the NWS didn't bite. ULLs are extremely hard to forecast, impact wise.
 
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Winter storm Elliott is going to be the one!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
weatherfide said:
That predominant northwest flow is not conducive to recharging our soil moisture lost after nearly 6 weeks of no rain. The cold is not good if it's just modified, dry arctic air rushing in every 3 days.
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Good clipper flow, FTW! ☃️
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm telling you...we might have a harsh winter, but the putting eggs in the SCE basket is a good way to set yourself up for disappointment.
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I normally dont buy things like this, but something is strangely up with insects and animals. The ants have been invading my house constantly and now both of my bee hives have left in the middle of fall nectar flow to find better hive sites.. I'm starting to think we have a blistering cold winter coming. May not be snowy, but we may end up sick of it.
 
Arcc said:
I normally dont buy things like this, but something is strangely up with insects and animals. The ants have been invading my house constantly and now both of my bee hives have left in the middle of fall nectar flow to find better hive sites.. I'm starting to think we have a blistering cold winter coming. May not be snowy, but we may end up sick of it.
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Hope you're right. I'm waiting to see when and if we get a big bird migration. The leaves seem to be changing earlier this year.
 
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