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Wintry Winter 26-27

Sleetisfunbutsnowisgood said:
I keep reading about an early pv weakening in next few weeks. Is this just a sign of a more impressive cold front for fall or is it more too it? Judah Cohen on the bandwagon as of now
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A PV stretch doesn't create an immediate effect. The *hope* would be a weaker PV going into the winter would be easier to disrupt later on. A weakened PV *can* lead to blocking which *could* set up in a favorable location which *might* lead to cold air in the East during the winter which *may* link up with moisture from the STJ *possibly* resulting in wintry weather.
 
Rain Cold said:
A PV stretch doesn't create an immediate effect. The *hope* would be a weaker PV going into the winter would be easier to disrupt later on. A weakened PV *can* lead to blocking which *could* set up in a favorable location which *might* lead to cold air in the East during the winter which *may* link up with moisture from the STJ *possibly* resulting in wintry weather.
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Also waiting on that major Typhoon recurve, to really shake up the pattern!
 
Rain Cold said:
A PV stretch doesn't create an immediate effect. The *hope* would be a weaker PV going into the winter would be easier to disrupt later on. A weakened PV *can* lead to blocking which *could* set up in a favorable location which *might* lead to cold air in the East during the winter which *may* link up with moisture from the STJ *possibly* resulting in wintry weather.
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Love this explanation. Thank you… knowledgeable yet funny at the same time
Because of all the non certain words haha
 
Getting the MJO stuck in phases 2/3 now, is not a good harbinger of a great winter for any of us! I feel like that’s locked in and may occasionally get into 7,8, and 1, but could see it riding the phase 2/3 most of the winter! These heatdomes keep forinh in the Central part of the country and are verifying stronger, and longer lived , than modeled! Deck is definitely stacked against us, even if that is only one part of the equation
 
18z gfs like previous runs gets closer an closer mid late next week to providing wnc mtns some early fun. Not there yet
 
NCSNOW said:
18z gfs like previous runs gets closer an closer mid late next week to providing wnc mtns some early fun. Not there yet
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Indices certainly look good for it. NAO looking to stay negative with the AO going negative and PNA going positive
 
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