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Snowed that morning as I recall
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Wintry Winter 26-27
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Sleetisfunbutsnowisgood
Member
I keep reading about an early pv weakening in next few weeks. Is this just a sign of a more impressive cold front for fall or is it more too it? Judah Cohen on the bandwagon as of now
A PV stretch doesn't create an immediate effect. The *hope* would be a weaker PV going into the winter would be easier to disrupt later on. A weakened PV *can* lead to blocking which *could* set up in a favorable location which *might* lead to cold air in the East during the winter which *may* link up with moisture from the STJ *possibly* resulting in wintry weather.
Also waiting on that major Typhoon recurve, to really shake up the pattern!
shortstopsergio
Member
Love this explanation. Thank you… knowledgeable yet funny at the same time
Because of all the non certain words haha
tennessee storm
Member
Course he is. He wants clicks s money . He knows cards are stacked against us this winter better part
Getting the MJO stuck in phases 2/3 now, is not a good harbinger of a great winter for any of us! I feel like that’s locked in and may occasionally get into 7,8, and 1, but could see it riding the phase 2/3 most of the winter! These heatdomes keep forinh in the Central part of the country and are verifying stronger, and longer lived , than modeled! Deck is definitely stacked against us, even if that is only one part of the equation
No not the day of the NFC Championship. It snowed the morning of the Divisional Round game against Seattle
18z gfs like previous runs gets closer an closer mid late next week to providing wnc mtns some early fun. Not there yet
Indices certainly look good for it. NAO looking to stay negative with the AO going negative and PNA going positive
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
00z Euro/GFS still predicting at least a weakening of the SPV in early November.
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Tsappfrog20
Member
00z Euro/GFS still predicting at least a weakening of the SPV in early November.
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Yes we wanted to hope that the PV continues to be stretched for our winter
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
00z Euro/GFS still predicting at least a weakening of the SPV in early November.
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If it were to happen, it’s nearly falling in line with its seasonal climate run of the SPV forecast, but as you can see…it recovers quickly later in November and then perhaps another weakening by late December if correct.
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Well there's one coming
Not bullish at all for DC/PHL/NYC.
That's what I was thinking.
Somewhat bullish for Charlotte!JP152
Member
Mountains look to do very well NC/TN up through VA/WV.That's what I was thinking.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
If it were to happen, it’s nearly falling in line with its seasonal climate run of the SPV forecast, but as you can see…it recovers quickly later in November and then perhaps another weakening by late December if correct.
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There’s the max weakening around Nov 5 and then the vortex strengthening afterwards from yesterdays SPV forecast.
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Here’s the latest 10 day CFSv2 mean for Feb ‘27 (Nino): 80% of CONUS BN; much AN E Canada:
No other mid Oct 10 day mean for Feb back to 2012 has had anything even closely resembling this extreme couplet, and a cold dominant Feb US/much warmer than normal E Can have been on EVERY 10 day mean since they started going out that far in mid August!
Check out how much Feb of ‘27 differs from all other Feb forecasts back to the start of the CFSv2:
2026: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can:
2025: 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2024 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; AN E Can
2023: 33% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2022: 6% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2021: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2020: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2019 (Nino): 5% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2018: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
Continued in my next post due to limitation of 10 attachments/post…..
No other mid Oct 10 day mean for Feb back to 2012 has had anything even closely resembling this extreme couplet, and a cold dominant Feb US/much warmer than normal E Can have been on EVERY 10 day mean since they started going out that far in mid August!
Check out how much Feb of ‘27 differs from all other Feb forecasts back to the start of the CFSv2:
2026: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can:
2025: 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2024 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; AN E Can
2023: 33% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2022: 6% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2021: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2020: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2019 (Nino): 5% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2018: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
Continued in my next post due to limitation of 10 attachments/post…..
Continued from my prior post…..
2017: 3% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2016 (Nino): 4% of CONUS BN; AN E Can
2015 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2014: 4% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2013: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2012: 15% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
———————————
Feb: % BN Conus; E Can anom
‘27 (Nino): 80% BN US; much AN E Can
’26: 1% BN US; BN E Can
’25: 0% BN US; BN E Can
’24 (Nino): 0% BN US; AN E Can
’23: 33% BN US; BN E Can
’22: 6% BN US; BN E Can
’21: 20% BN US; BN E Can
’20: 1% BN US; BN E Can
’19 (Nino) 5% BN US; BN E Can
’18: 20% BN US; BN E Can
’17: 3% BN US; BN E Can
’16 (Nino): 4% BN US; AN E Can
’15 (Nino): 0% BN US; BN E Can
’14: 4% BN US; BN E Can
’13: 1% BN US; BN E Can
’12: 15% BN US; BN E Can
—————————————
Analysis of above:
-Feb of ‘27 80% BN US vs only 33% (‘23) for next closest! Avg of only 7.5% BN US for 2012-26 and a mere 2% BN for the four El Niño cases!
-The other 4 Nino Febs had no more than 5% BN US! The two strongest Nino Febs had US BN of 0% (‘24) and 4% (‘16)! So, there’s virtually no resemblance to ‘27.
-BN in the SE US virtually nonexistent on any of 2012-2026 with most of them mild. But in stark contrast, 2027 has a very cold SE!
-Feb of ‘27 has by far the warmest E Can. Only 2 others had any degree of AN (much less intense than ‘27) and they were the 2 strongest El Niños (‘24 and ‘16).
——————
In closing, Feb of ‘27 has been very persistently (for 2 months!) showing on the CFSv2 a highly unique (among all Febs on record) extreme couplet of a cold dominant CONUS and extreme blocking/very warm E Canada. The CFSv2 has been trying to tell us something it never has and though I’m not at all saying to trust it, I am suggesting that it not be dismissed.
2017: 3% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2016 (Nino): 4% of CONUS BN; AN E Can
2015 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2014: 4% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2013: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
2012: 15% of CONUS BN; BN E Can
———————————
Feb: % BN Conus; E Can anom
‘27 (Nino): 80% BN US; much AN E Can
’26: 1% BN US; BN E Can
’25: 0% BN US; BN E Can
’24 (Nino): 0% BN US; AN E Can
’23: 33% BN US; BN E Can
’22: 6% BN US; BN E Can
’21: 20% BN US; BN E Can
’20: 1% BN US; BN E Can
’19 (Nino) 5% BN US; BN E Can
’18: 20% BN US; BN E Can
’17: 3% BN US; BN E Can
’16 (Nino): 4% BN US; AN E Can
’15 (Nino): 0% BN US; BN E Can
’14: 4% BN US; BN E Can
’13: 1% BN US; BN E Can
’12: 15% BN US; BN E Can
—————————————
Analysis of above:
-Feb of ‘27 80% BN US vs only 33% (‘23) for next closest! Avg of only 7.5% BN US for 2012-26 and a mere 2% BN for the four El Niño cases!
-The other 4 Nino Febs had no more than 5% BN US! The two strongest Nino Febs had US BN of 0% (‘24) and 4% (‘16)! So, there’s virtually no resemblance to ‘27.
-BN in the SE US virtually nonexistent on any of 2012-2026 with most of them mild. But in stark contrast, 2027 has a very cold SE!
-Feb of ‘27 has by far the warmest E Can. Only 2 others had any degree of AN (much less intense than ‘27) and they were the 2 strongest El Niños (‘24 and ‘16).
——————
In closing, Feb of ‘27 has been very persistently (for 2 months!) showing on the CFSv2 a highly unique (among all Febs on record) extreme couplet of a cold dominant CONUS and extreme blocking/very warm E Canada. The CFSv2 has been trying to tell us something it never has and though I’m not at all saying to trust it, I am suggesting that it not be dismissed.
Last edited:
Big winter coming.
NoSnowATL
Member
Us mountain folk...(calling myself a local is still weird)
Bigedd09
Member
This would not be too fun. Hopefully come air could sync up with a storm once it twice!
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Feels good going into winter knowing I got 11” last year. Anything I get this winter is just gravy.This would not be too fun. Hopefully come air could sync up with a storm once it twice!
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I don’t need Judah, JB, Max Velocity, or Brads winter outlook, here is the winter outlook from the GOAT!!
Rain_Cold
Rain_Cold
The Carolinas look great in this graphic. The borders are perfect. Definitely the correct shape.
Okay, but Raleigh is so salty about the snow hole that the entirety of Wake County was prescribed blood pressure medication...
We need this super El Niño to reel one in. I do not enjoy doing Synoptic meteorology labs about last January's snowstorm and being constantly reminded of the failure.
trackersacker
Member
The odds we go 90+ staright days without temps ever getting below freezing throughout the entire column for atleast a couple of 24-48 hour spells are almost zilch. The mystery is , do one of those almost guranteed quick spells time up with what is supose to be a barrage of moisture plumes coming from our SW / all thanks to the STJ firehose.
Odds are high some area on here scores atleast one pretty good hit. Even if we spend 99% of the rest of winter in cold rain, cloudy mid 40's days etc,
Caveat though, is if there is a way to screw it up/ we will find it.
Odds are high some area on here scores atleast one pretty good hit. Even if we spend 99% of the rest of winter in cold rain, cloudy mid 40's days etc,
Caveat though, is if there is a way to screw it up/ we will find it.
He got the GOAT part right. We can't expect perfection. Give the man a break!
No
I’m saying Rain_Colds favorite Met is SnowbirdBob! His forecasts are on fleek
My only source for winter weather forecasts, oh, and the DGEX
I see South Carolinian forces have invaded around Charlotte and are pushing northwards past Hickory and towards Wilkesboro. North Carolinian forces will need to stop their advance before they isolate the mountains from Raleigh and all hope at saving the western half of the state is lost. With winter setting in, time is running short....
Should have been expecting this, but we've got time. Definitely need to counter that advance to reclaim CLT at least. They can have Gastonia though.
We killing hopes and dreams early this year. I like it. Mountains gonna get smoked 
NoSnowATL
Member
Winter just got Dangerous and concerning. Nobody is ready for this pattern shift. Did I miss one?
I'd complain about being on the wrong side of 85 again, but that happens every winter. No one to blame but myself.
olhausen
Member
A month later I got the biggest snowfall I’ve had living here despite a warm winter overall. 12 inches fell in about 6 hours. It was insanely heavy rates with big fat flakes that I’ve only ever seen one other time in flagstaff Arizona. Needless to say it all melted in 4-5 days.
Literally 4 hours later! Complete 180!
BOB is starting to lose street cred with me!
And I grew up on the mean streets of Gastonia!
