• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 26-27

The only reason I worry about it is because literally outside of one weekend last year was the warmest winter on record here and we broke so many record highs I can't even count them all

Like we've never done two in a row that I can find

Not to mention there's 11 warmest winters on record since 2000 in the top 30 here

I didn't even notice that other than 24-25 every winter I've been here is in the top warmest on record

Only 3 or 4 really cold winters since... And 20-21 with February 2021 isn't even in the top 30 because it was so warm the rest of the winter
 
Last edited:
Rain Cold said:
How do you like the Euro seasonal height pattern for January? Looks like a strong STJ, maybe flooding the US with warmth. But....
Click to expand...

My guess is that would be the natural order of things for a strong nino; a strong STJ, setting up an Alaskan or western trough (of doom) with an eastern ridge. It'll all come down to the forcing and the jet location as it usually does, but my assumption with a strong nino we tend to get strong STJs that extend too far east, and thus that height pattern that ridges us in the east.

I guess there's always some index or atmospheric element that could limit the jets extent east and save us, but my default guess is an extended jet more than not in the winter.
 
SnowNiner said:
My guess is that would be the natural order of things for a strong nino; a strong STJ, setting up an Alaskan or western trough (of doom) with an eastern ridge. It'll all come down to the forcing and the jet location as it usually does, but my assumption with a strong nino we tend to get strong STJs that extend too far east, and thus that height pattern that ridges us in the east.

I guess there's always some index or atmospheric element that could limit the jets extent east and save us, but my default guess is an extended jet more than not in the winter.
Click to expand...

The most reliable thing in Nov-Mar overall in the SE overall is above normal rainfall, which obviously is the best news one could have for the prospect of ending the SE drought.
 
4e5432858e47c916f983da6976d7c3a3.jpg

8fd5261996abc9d12bd7fda4d0164999.jpg

c92c3f0eb3a0d0af2dc32153a3dd1757.jpg

Who else is ready for winter?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Can’t wait for less amped and positive tilted garbage

I had a 16” season last year I should shut up lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Y'all had more than we did haha

It was just so dry and boring outside of that one weekend here. That was the unusual part for me
 
I'd take no snow if it meant months of lows coming out of the Gulf of Mexico spreading a shield of rain across the Carolinas.
 
Not that it can be correlated to the coming winter weather in the US, I nevertheless find it interesting that the high Arctic is now almost assured of 2026 being the coldest summer since the inception of this Danmarks data set. This includes years dating back to the 60s-80s when summer ice retention was far more extensive than it has been for the past couple of decades.
1785241786230.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Not that it can be correlated to the coming winter weather in the US, I nevertheless find it interesting that the high Arctic is now almost assured of 2026 being the coldest summer since the inception of this Danmarks data set. This includes years dating back to the 60s-80s when summer ice retention was far more extensive than it has been for the past couple of decades.
View attachment 197062
Click to expand...
I believe this is significant in its own way. It will allow more cold air to build earlier than usual. With "loose" jet stream, it will drop south, where is anybody guess.
 
Brent said:
Oh what can possibly go wrong

Where is he even getting this? The analogs suck even out here View attachment 197097
Click to expand...

Brent,
I don’t know about Tulsa but the strong El Niños of:

-1888-9 (late Feb 1889 major snow)
-1896-7 (early Dec)
-1930-1 (Dec)
-1957-8 (mid-Feb Gulf coast snow incl. New Orleans/SAV)
-1965-6 (Jan esp. in NC)
-1972-3 (Jan historic ZR esp. N GA and Feb historic deep SE snow)
-1982-3 (several snows incl. historic late March)
-1987-8 (big snow and sleet early Jan)
-1991-2 (mid Jan, especially ATL/much of N GA)
-2009-10 (multiple snows esp. Feb storm including at CHS)

all had notable winter storms in the SE. That’s during 10 of the 17 strong El Niños.
 
Speaking of Blocking and forecasted very low Atlantic Hurricane season to remove the heat out of Atlantic sst's.

Warm Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in late summer and fall strongly correlate with increased winter atmospheric blocking, particularly over Greenland and northern Europe. This thermal precursor alters the winter jet stream, favoring high-pressure blocking patterns that typically result in a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) configuration. [1, 2]

Key Teleconnection Mechanisms
The delayed, cross-seasonal impact of late summer and fall Atlantic warming on winter circulation operates through several atmospheric and oceanic pathways:

Warm Late-Summer/Fall Atlantic SSTs
│
├─► Reduces Late-Autumn Arctic Sea Ice (Barents/Kara Seas) ──► Weakens Polar Vortex ──► Winter Blocking (-NAO)
│
├─► Triggers Subtropical Atmospheric Rossby Wave Trains ─────► Alters Polar Jet Stream ──► High-Pressure Ridging
│
└─► Ocean Thermal Re-emergence (Subsurface Insulation) ─────► Direct Wint


Currently:

1785429390600.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Speaking of Blocking and forecasted very low Atlantic Hurricane season to remove the heat out of Atlantic sst's.

Warm Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in late summer and fall strongly correlate with increased winter atmospheric blocking, particularly over Greenland and northern Europe. This thermal precursor alters the winter jet stream, favoring high-pressure blocking patterns that typically result in a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) configuration. [1, 2]

Key Teleconnection Mechanisms
The delayed, cross-seasonal impact of late summer and fall Atlantic warming on winter circulation operates through several atmospheric and oceanic pathways:

Warm Late-Summer/Fall Atlantic SSTs
│
├─► Reduces Late-Autumn Arctic Sea Ice (Barents/Kara Seas) ──► Weakens Polar Vortex ──► Winter Blocking (-NAO)
│
├─► Triggers Subtropical Atmospheric Rossby Wave Trains ─────► Alters Polar Jet Stream ──► High-Pressure Ridging
│
└─► Ocean Thermal Re-emergence (Subsurface Insulation) ─────► Direct Wint


Currently:

View attachment 197099
Click to expand...
Another reason to root against Atlantic hurricanes this year!
 
GaWx said:
Brent,
I don’t know about Tulsa but the strong El Niños of:

-1888-9 (late Feb 1889 major snow)
-1896-7 (early Dec)
-1930-1 (Dec)
-1957-8 (mid-Feb Gulf coast snow incl. New Orleans/SAV)
-1965-6 (Jan esp. in NC)
-1972-3 (Jan historic ZR esp. N GA and Feb historic deep SE snow)
-1982-3 (several snows incl. historic late March)
-1987-8 (big snow and sleet early Jan)
-1991-2 (mid Jan, especially ATL/much of N GA)
-2009-10 (multiple snows esp. Feb storm including at CHS)

all had notable winter storms in the SE. That’s during 10 of the 17 strong El Niños.
Click to expand...
1997-98 also had a significant winter storm in the SE in late December right after Christmas
 
GaWx said:
Brent,
I don’t know about Tulsa but the strong El Niños of:

-1888-9 (late Feb 1889 major snow)
-1896-7 (early Dec)
-1930-1 (Dec)
-1957-8 (mid-Feb Gulf coast snow incl. New Orleans/SAV)
-1965-6 (Jan esp. in NC)
-1972-3 (Jan historic ZR esp. N GA and Feb historic deep SE snow)
-1982-3 (several snows incl. historic late March)
-1987-8 (big snow and sleet early Jan)
-1991-2 (mid Jan, especially ATL/much of N GA)
-2009-10 (multiple snows esp. Feb storm including at CHS)

all had notable winter storms in the SE. That’s during 10 of the 17 strong El Niños.
Click to expand...

Well the super strong El Nino like 15-16 and 97-98 is why I'm pessimistic. There was almost zero snow here at all in both years. I was in Dallas in 15-16 and remember zero winter but there was a killer tornado on the day after Christmas! It's true that back in the old days the El Ninos was better and I'm hoping we can return to that but who knows at this point

It also just seems like La Nina has been better here in the last 10-15 years. I know it's been made known how warm last winter was here but we did still have one big storm that made it look like an average winter. Of course the 2 years of La Nina had the two back to back Gulf snowstorms as well

Also the last time we had an El nino a few years ago was when we had the snow holes and it snowed a lot more elsewhere. There's been nothing good about it lately

I mean I hope something changes but that's why I've been so pessimistic
 
Last edited:
Brent said:
Well the super strong El Nino like 15-16 and 97-98 is why I'm pessimistic. There was almost zero snow here at all in both years. I was in Dallas in 15-16 and remember zero winter but there was a killer tornado on the day after Christmas! It's true that back in the old days the El Ninos was better and I'm hoping we can return to that but who knows at this point

It also just seems like La Nina has been better here in the last 10-15 years. I know it's been made known how warm last winter was here but we did still have one big storm that made it look like an average winter. Of course the 2 years of La Nina had the two back to back Gulf snowstorms as well

Also the last time we had an El nino a few years ago was when we had the snow holes and it snowed a lot more elsewhere. There's been nothing good about it lately

I mean I hope something changes but that's why I've been so pessimistic
Click to expand...
Will the pdo being negative over positive be better in this type of niño or we want the opposite?
 
Sleetisfunbutsnowisgood said:
Will the pdo being negative over positive be better in this type of niño or we want the opposite?
Click to expand...

You know that makes me wonder what has changed from the great El ninos of the past. Is it a long term change or just unlucky? I'm not well versed in it to answer but maybe that would clarify some things. Like if we have hope
 
Had to delete my post from yesterday. I googled AI strongest El Nino years on record and it gave me the answer for 2 winters that where not the strongest El Nino on record. Which sent me down the wrong road researching climo for GSO for those years.
Don't ask me how that happened, but my apologies.

The strongest two El Nino years on record apparently are

Historically, the 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 events were long regarded as among the most powerful "super" El Niño episodes ever measured. However, rapidly emerging data and multi-model forecasts indicate that the developing 2026–2027 El Niño is on a historic track to potentially become the strongest El Niño on record by a wide
 
NCSNOW said:
Had to delete my post from yesterday. I googled AI strongest El Nino years on record and it gave me the answer for 2 winters that where not the strongest El Nino on record. Which sent me down the wrong road researching climo for GSO for those years.
Don't ask me how that happened, but my apologies.

The strongest two El Nino years on record apparently are

Historically, the 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 events were long regarded as among the most powerful "super" El Niño episodes ever measured. However, rapidly emerging data and multi-model forecasts indicate that the developing 2026–2027 El Niño is on a historic track to potentially become the strongest El Niño on record by a wide
Click to expand...

Yeah I don't think this is helping matters.... I think the weaker El ninos have always been better and when we get into historic everything(the La Nina was historic too that it went on for 3 years) it probably ruins everything basically or tries to looks like it will

There does seem to be some optimism maybe we won't torch but it's so far out
 
Last edited:
I feel the PNA is key. It usually is but may be so much more important this year. If it's negative, it'll help funnel a lot of the Pacific heat into SW Canada. If it's positive (with some cross polar help from Siberia) we could get some big snow/ice storms.

I read somewhere we should be looking/hoping for CAD setups; with established cold air to the north (from +PNA and -AO).

I personally wouldn't be surprised to see the whole winter flooded with warm air. But I'm a cold weather fan and I'm hoping for the better pattern setup.
 
Brent said:
Well the super strong El Nino like 15-16 and 97-98 is why I'm pessimistic. There was almost zero snow here at all in both years. I was in Dallas in 15-16 and remember zero winter but there was a killer tornado on the day after Christmas! It's true that back in the old days the El Ninos was better and I'm hoping we can return to that but who knows at this point

It also just seems like La Nina has been better here in the last 10-15 years. I know it's been made known how warm last winter was here but we did still have one big storm that made it look like an average winter. Of course the 2 years of La Nina had the two back to back Gulf snowstorms as well

Also the last time we had an El nino a few years ago was when we had the snow holes and it snowed a lot more elsewhere. There's been nothing good about it lately

I mean I hope something changes but that's why I've been so pessimistic
Click to expand...

Yeah here was tornadoes and insane flooding for Christmas .
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top