Wintry Winter 26-27

[tractor girl]

The only people complaining should be Raleigh people.

We barely saw 3ish inches all winter. As soon as it fell it was gone.. and most of it was sleet.

 

[Brent]

The only reason I worry about it is because literally outside of one weekend last year was the warmest winter on record here and we broke so many record highs I can't even count them all

Like we've never done two in a row that I can find

Not to mention there's 11 warmest winters on record since 2000 in the top 30 here

I didn't even notice that other than 24-25 every winter I've been here is in the top warmest on record

Only 3 or 4 really cold winters since... And 20-21 with February 2021 isn't even in the top 30 because it was so warm the rest of the winter

 

[SnowNiner]

How do you like the Euro seasonal height pattern for January? Looks like a strong STJ, maybe flooding the US with warmth. But....

My guess is that would be the natural order of things for a strong nino; a strong STJ, setting up an Alaskan or western trough (of doom) with an eastern ridge. It'll all come down to the forcing and the jet location as it usually does, but my assumption with a strong nino we tend to get strong STJs that extend too far east, and thus that height pattern that ridges us in the east.

I guess there's always some index or atmospheric element that could limit the jets extent east and save us, but my default guess is an extended jet more than not in the winter.

 

[GaWx]

My guess is that would be the natural order of things for a strong nino; a strong STJ, setting up an Alaskan or western trough (of doom) with an eastern ridge. It'll all come down to the forcing and the jet location as it usually does, but my assumption with a strong nino we tend to get strong STJs that extend too far east, and thus that height pattern that ridges us in the east.

I guess there's always some index or atmospheric element that could limit the jets extent east and save us, but my default guess is an extended jet more than not in the winter.

The most reliable thing in Nov-Mar overall in the SE overall is above normal rainfall, which obviously is the best news one could have for the prospect of ending the SE drought.