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Wintry Winter 26-27

Yeah I'm not very optimistic due to the super historic el Nino but we'll see

I am struggling to believe we can torch two winters in a row but I dunno... The new normal and all... We did torch 2 falls in a row already...
 
SD said:
Peak this nino in SON, decline it relatively quickly in JFM, print money Jan 20-Mar 20.

Tks
Click to expand...

1. Having a super-Nino is great news for the prospects to relieve any remaining SE drought Nov-March.

2. The Euro doesn’t peak before Dec, with a record RONI of +3.1 in Dec, which would likely get the SE a firehose of a ST jet/great rainfall overall for much of Nov-Mar:

IMG_0803.png


3. But the CFS peaks earlier (in Nov) way up at record levels for RONI of +3.2C vs current RONI monthly record of +2.7C. And then afterward, the CFS has by far the fastest cooling on record (so I’m taking with a grain, especially because it’s the unreliable CFS) with it plunging to only +2.0 in Jan and +1.5 in Feb:

IMG_0802.png

4. Due to a tendency for models to be a bit too warm with forecasts this far out, it wouldn’t surprise me if the actual RONI monthlies peak in the high +2s instead of low +3s. However, the record warmest RONI month is only +2.7 (1982) and thus a record warmest RONI is likely as of now.
 
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