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Wintry Winter 26-27

Yeah I'm not very optimistic due to the super historic el Nino but we'll see

I am struggling to believe we can torch two winters in a row but I dunno... The new normal and all... We did torch 2 falls in a row already...
 
SD said:
Peak this nino in SON, decline it relatively quickly in JFM, print money Jan 20-Mar 20.

Tks
Click to expand...

1. Having a super-Nino is great news for the prospects to relieve any remaining SE drought Nov-March.

2. The Euro doesn’t peak before Dec, with a record RONI of +3.1 in Dec, which would likely get the SE a firehose of a ST jet/great rainfall overall for much of Nov-Mar:

IMG_0803.png


3. But the CFS peaks earlier (in Nov) way up at record levels for RONI of +3.2C vs current RONI monthly record of +2.7C. And then afterward, the CFS has by far the fastest cooling on record (so I’m taking with a grain, especially because it’s the unreliable CFS) with it plunging to only +2.0 in Jan and +1.5 in Feb:

IMG_0802.png

4. Due to a tendency for models to be a bit too warm with forecasts this far out, it wouldn’t surprise me if the actual RONI monthlies peak in the high +2s instead of low +3s. However, the record warmest RONI month is only +2.7 (1982) and thus a record warmest RONI is likely as of now.
 
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If this rapid PDO warming were to keep up, the WCS daily PDO would go positive at least for a short period starting by ~this weekend! It’s now up to -0.17 vs -1.40 on May 27th.

IMG_0801.png


The last times this was + were ~5 days in March-April of 2025!

IMG_0804.png

Note that this is the WCS PDO, not the NOAA PDO, which tends to be lower. Regardless, the trend of the WCS PDO is almost always similar to the trend of the NOAA PDO. So, it’s very informative, regardless.
 
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