Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

[weather bubba]

The one I saw was solid black. I can't remember the last time I saw a solid black one....

The wooly worm I saw was solid black too. Last year I saw two and they had brown and black bands. This probably means nothing as a long range indication as far as winter weather but it is interesting that several people have seen all black wooly worms this year in North Carolina.

 

[Brent]

The wooly worm I saw was solid black too. Last year I saw two and they had brown and black bands. This probably means nothing as a long range indication as far as winter weather but it is interesting that several people have seen all black wooly worms this year in North Carolina.

Yeah I dunno I'd like to believe them but it's like I said... The winters have been very unpredictable even out here going to the good and bad. Heck I've gone back and looked at some of our big storms before I was here and most of them nobody knew what was gonna happen until it did

Im just trying to tell people to keep expectations low... You never know

Maybe we'll be surprised

 

[BIG FROSTY]

I'll post the summary. He will update Nov. 24th

WxRisk Preliminary
Winter Outlook 2025-26
25 OCTOBER 2025
SUMMARY-

There is a significant chance of a severe winter conditions in 2025-26:
WxRisk believes that there is significant chance for extreme cold and
potentially significant stormy intervals for at least a portion of the upcoming
winter.
 The prospect or potential is based upon the return of the +TNH in a manner
similar to what we saw in the winters 2013-14, and 2015-16.
 As of 10/21, there has been a break in the buildup of snow cover in Siberia,
but the last week of October looks extremely promising for a significant
advance in snow amounts and coverage in Siberia

 

[griteater]

January during La Nina / Cool ENSO has been fairly fruitful with the pattern east of the Rockies over the last 30 years - cold with some winter storm chances over the SE. Here are some highlighted years. 7 of the 9 years had a favorable MJO pass thru portions of 7-8-1-2

 

[MRKEVIN7575]

January during La Nina / Cool ENSO has been fairly fruitful with the pattern east of the Rockies over the last 30 years - cold with some winter storm chances over the SE. Here are some highlighted years. 7 of the 9 years had a favorable MJO pass thru portions of 7-8-1-2

View attachment 175712

View attachment 175713

January during La Nina / Cool ENSO has been fairly fruitful with the pattern east of the Rockies over the last 30 years - cold with some winter storm chances over the SE. Here are some highlighted years. 7 of the 9 years had a favorable MJO pass thru portions of 7-8-1-2

View attachment 175712

View attachment 175713

View attachment 175716

When will you do your winter outlook?

 

[griteater]

When will you do your winter outlook?

I've retired from winter outlooking

Don't have a strong opinion on it, just hoping for a good wintry stretch or 2, which is reasonable me thinks.

 

[Chazwin]

I've retired from winter outlooking

Don't have a strong opinion on it, just hoping for a good wintry stretch or 2, which is reasonable me thinks.

Geez I hate to hear this. Your outlooks have always been probably most informative I read

 

[griteater]

Geez I hate to hear this. Your outlooks have always been probably most informative I read

Thank you for that. Not enough successes. And it’s like giving your girlfriend an engagement ring - it’s a full commitment!

 

[Stevo24]

Thank you for that. Not enough successes. And it’s like giving your girlfriend an engagement ring - it’s a full commitment!

It’s kinda like being married too. No matter how much time and effort you put into it, you’re always wrong.

 

[Brent]

Thank you for that. Not enough successes. And it’s like giving your girlfriend an engagement ring - it’s a full commitment!

Yeah I feel bad for anyone who seriously tries to predict winter down here

Sometimes we can't even figure out next week!

 

[griteater]

Yeah I feel bad for anyone who seriously tries to predict winter down here

Sometimes we can't even figure out next week!

I hear ya, but it's a relative thing though as you are just trying to get the overall flavor of the winter correct with a seasonal forecast, and not the fine specifics....so, it's tough yes, but there can be some successes with it

 

[Brent]

I hear ya, but it's a relative thing though as you are just trying to get the overall flavor of the winter correct with a seasonal forecast, and not the fine specifics....so, it's tough yes, but there can be some successes with it

View attachment 175734

Right I just hope we get a pattern like last January once or twice

 

[1300m]

I've retired from winter outlooking

Don't have a strong opinion on it, just hoping for a good wintry stretch or 2, which is reasonable me thinks.

This is ultimately where I landed after about a decade of trying them with varying success.

The juice wasn’t worth the squeeze for me and TBH my interest level and motivation was nowhere near the necessary amount to be good at it.

 

[Tarheel1]

It’s kinda like being married too. No matter how much time and effort you put into it, you’re
The juice wasn’t worth the squeeze for me and TBH my interest level and motivation was nowhere near the necessary amount to be good at it.

Such a ray of sunshine

 

[Tarheel1]

I've retired from winter outlooking

Don't have a strong opinion on it, just hoping for a good wintry stretch or 2, which is reasonable me thinks.

Just don’t retire from play by play of winter storms! It would truly be a loss to not have that!
You can even do an Iowa snowstorm or two, just for fun!

 

[griteater]

This is ultimately where I landed after about a decade of trying them with varying success.

The juice wasn’t worth the squeeze for me and TBH my interest level and motivation was nowhere near the necessary amount to be good at it.

One thing I really liked about it, and that motivated me, was that there weren’t all that many who were deep diving in it (publicly).

The hardest part to me though was trying to keep up with how changes with climate across the globe were affecting how you should utilize analogs etc.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We have been duped by the weeklies before, but they did do well last winter. Looks good early Dec, esp vs the GEFS

 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies run mean has an even weaker SPV than yesterday’s weak mean with only 8 of the 42 days’ mean stronger than normal, and it even includes 15% of members with a very early major SSW, by far the most yet of any run this season!

Note that the progged mean Thanksgiving through Dec 11th of 2025 SPV is only ~20 vs normal of 31, which would be the weakest for that period since 2019-20:



Compare the above to the prog at the same time last year: 40 of the 42 days’ mean stronger than normal along with ZERO members with a major SSW.

Note that the mean Thanksgiving through Dec 12th of 2024 was up at ~37 (it verified to be way up at ~45):


Now compare to the prog from the same time two years ago: 30 of the 42 days’ mean stronger than normal with only 2% with a major SSW.

Note that the mean Thanksgiving through Dec 9th of 2023 was ~31 (it verified to be ~34):


In summary, this post shows that the 100 member Euro Weeklies mean is suggesting a mainly weak SPV in late Nov and early Dec, which would compare to a very strong SPV for the same time in 2024 and a slightly stronger than normal SPV in 2023. Even if we assume that the 2025 prog is biased modestly too negative, a bias adjustment would still be progged pretty weak (~25) and would be way below 2024’s actual of 45 and significantly below 2023’s actual of 34.

 

[accu35]

Today’s Euro Weeklies run mean has an even weaker SPV than yesterday’s weak mean with only 8 of the 42 days’ mean stronger than normal, and it even includes 15% of members with a very early major SSW, by far the most yet of any run this season!

Note that the progged mean Thanksgiving through Dec 11th of 2025 SPV is only ~20 vs normal of 31, which would be the weakest for that period since 2019-20:
View attachment 175740


Compare the above to the prog at the same time last year: 40 of the 42 days’ mean stronger than normal along with ZERO members with a major SSW.

Note that the mean Thanksgiving through Dec 12th of 2024 was up at ~37 (it verified to be way up at ~45):
View attachment 175755

Now compare to the prog from the same time two years ago: 30 of the 42 days’ mean stronger than normal with only 2% with a major SSW.

Note that the mean Thanksgiving through Dec 9th of 2023 was ~31 (it verified to be ~34):
View attachment 175756

In summary, this post shows that the 100 member Euro Weeklies mean is suggesting a mainly weak SPV in late Nov and early Dec, which would compare to a very strong SPV for the same time in 2024 and a slightly stronger than normal SPV in 2023. Even if we assume that the 2025 prog is biased modestly too negative, a bias adjustment would still be progged pretty weak (~25) and would be way below 2024’s actual of 45 and significantly below 2023’s actual of 34.

So does this mean we could have a pretty decent winter for us in the southeast? Would be nice again.

 

[GaWx]

So does this mean we could have a pretty decent winter for us in the southeast? Would be nice again.

This means that at least the first half of Dec could very well be decent in the SE due to a weak SPV.

But unusually enough, the SPV was actually quite strong during DJF of last winter, including during the historic Jan, prior to the very weak SPV in March.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This means that at least the first half of Dec could very well be decent in the SE due to a weak SPV.

But unusually enough, the SPV was actually quite strong during DJF of last winter, including during the historic Jan, prior to the very weak SPV in March.

What lucked out for us is that even with the stronger SPV last winter, it was rooted to the Hudson Bay TPV so cold air was nearby last winter most of the time, when it’s locked up and wound up on the other side is when it’s a issue, with the weaker then normal SPV being shown by the euro, the chances of a HLB event increase this Dec. in fact ens towards mid Nov are starting to show a strong +SCAND, which is a -NAO precursor. The pacific jet should lose momentum in late Nov. the +SCAND with probably aid to kick another trough into AK mid month, with warm SE, then during that, we attempt at a -NAO mid-late month, then late Nov the pacific jet starts to retract to more of a Aleutian low, I think we are off to a quick start like last Dec, even though it didn’t result in much snow (there was one small event for the NC Piedmont)

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

It wasn't very long ago that some weather guessers were advertising a cold start to November. If accurate, this would imply that getting below average cold into North America will take at least until December.

 

[SD]

 

[Brent]

I had heard talk of record highs here a few days ago and the forecast barely has a 70....

Record highs are still well into the 80s

 

[GaWx]

It wasn't very long ago that some weather guessers were advertising a cold start to November. If accurate, this would imply that getting below average cold into North America will take at least until December.
View attachment 175794

Consistent with your post, the 0Z EPS/GEFS of 3 days ago had chill in the E 1/4 of the US dominating through Nov 8. But todays 0Z EPS/GEFS has it going only through ~11/3 due to no followup cold airmass.

 

[POWERSTROKE]

The wooly worm I saw was solid black too. Last year I saw two and they had brown and black bands. This probably means nothing as a long range indication as far as winter weather but it is interesting that several people have seen all black wooly worms this year in North Carolina.

Seen alot of mix brown and black. In years past have had all black and we had nothing for winter weather

 

[NoSnowATL]

Saw a bright white ghost crab this morning, same color white as last winter. Good sign since we got 6in of snow last winter.

 

[SD]

Higher amplitude p6 is likely to extend the jet in the coming weeks.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Higher amplitude p6 is likely to extend the jet in the coming weeks.

Yeah mid Nov will probably torch with a big AK/GOAK vortex. I like how we are setting ourselves up though once the momentum backs off

 

[SnowNiner]

Yeah mid Nov will probably torch with a big AK/GOAK vortex. I like how we are setting ourselves up though once the momentum backs off

Big AK vortexes scare me though once they get established....sometimes they tend to stay there for the winter.

 

[Webberweather53]

Compared to what things looked like even a week ago, I'm pretty sold at this point that winter is gonna be cooking right off the bat this year.

Really favorable MJO orbit coupled with this La Niña base state makes the weeklies very believable.

Based on the Euro weeklies weekly averaged VP200a maps and the slow evolution from this giant +EPO next week, might get our first real taste of -EPO/+TNH maybe later in Nov into early Dec perhaps.

Really just depends on when we can get the MJO to fully eject into the West Pac, while the Indian Ocean also becomes subsident/dry. Guidance is not in good agreement and the Maritime Continent predictability barrier is giving the models fits.

View attachment 175609

 

[Webberweather53]

Low pass + MJO filter looks really good to kickoff meteorological winter & is in line with what you'd expect with a western hemisphere MJO orbit in December.

 

[MRKEVIN7575]

Compared to what things looked like even a week ago, I'm pretty sold at this point that winter is gonna be cooking right off the bat this year.

Really favorable MJO orbit coupled with this La Niña base state makes the weeklies very believable.

View attachment 175802

Eric, quick question. Will you do the analysis of the pacific with the sst's like you did last november to show likelihood of the epo being more negative or positive for this winter? It seemed like you was accurate last winter

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro weekly C is locked and loaded early Dec with several good H5 presentations, the ens itself still looks good around this timeframe. But man that second H5 looks similar to something

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[SD]

If we were able to take how this winter seems like it will evolve and superimpose bouts of stronger HLB most people on here would be content by 3/15.

 

[BullCityWx]

Not bad. not bad at all.

 

[tennessee storm]

Euro weekly C is locked and loaded early Dec with several good H5 presentations, the ens itself still looks good around this timeframe. But man that second H5 looks similar to something View attachment 175809View attachment 175810

Need that look January … not December

 

[1300m]

Important to remember that P7 MJO isn't exactly a gangbusters H5 look for eastern US in November, so we're going to need that MJO to continue to roll into P8 as we roll into December to really get into a good pattern most likely. We know that hasn't always gone according to plan.

November P7


December P8




That said, if we can roll into a P8 in December along with having a compromised SPV, then we likely would evolve into a fun pattern early on.

P.S. December P7 isn't pretty at all.

 

[jrips27]

Winter is coming