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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

Tarheel1 said:
NOAA official winter outlook! View attachment 175532
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For the temp map; that exactly matches what we've experienced since 2019 with the lone exception of last January. Any cold is west of the Apps. It is apparently just the new normal. Last Jan was our chance for a good snow east of the mountains but we couldn't get the precip to line up and the coast cashed in instead.
 
I like what the 0z CFS is showing:

Snow depth on Halloween (last day of October). We have that theory about rapid snow buildup in October leads to a cold winter:

1760701785460.png
Then the coverage at day 30:
1760701852597.png
At this point, the southeast has gone through a 30-day period of mostly tranquil weather (east coast ridging). If we can now (at day 30) start flipping the pattern, we can hopefully funnel some of that cold air that has built over the Siberia. The end of November and especially the first week of December is "go time" for the (highest) possibility of winter weather.
 
SD said:
I know where the center of the BN precip would be
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Jonesville!?
Y’all will see average or below precip this year! But to start the winter fun and games, I’ll hit you with one of my favorite winter quotes: “ it only takes one”
IMG_2744.jpeg
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'd definitely say 2021-22 is probably the most recent good analog to this winter w/ a warm Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, -QBO, and being in the 2nd year of a La Niña. What a roller coaster ride that was. Torch December, snowy January and mild February.
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I did ok in my area that winter. Torch December and then it got more interesting through mid March here. Stronger east based niña I believe then
 
Based on the Euro weeklies weekly averaged VP200a maps and the slow evolution from this giant +EPO next week, might get our first real taste of -EPO/+TNH maybe later in Nov into early Dec perhaps.

Really just depends on when we can get the MJO to fully eject into the West Pac, while the Indian Ocean also becomes subsident/dry. Guidance is not in good agreement and the Maritime Continent predictability barrier is giving the models fits.

z500_p7_01_3mon.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Based on the Euro weeklies weekly averaged VP200a maps and the slow evolution from this giant +EPO next week, might get our first real taste of -EPO/+TNH maybe later in Nov into early Dec perhaps.

Really just depends on when we can get the MJO to fully eject into the West Pac, while the Indian Ocean also becomes subsident/dry. Guidance is not in good agreement and the Maritime Continent predictability barrier is giving the models fits.

View attachment 175609
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Is the -EPO/+TNH good for us in the Deep South for winter weather or chances?
 
Webberweather53 said:
It would but I think we're a tad on the early side for the Deep South at least. Maybe not so for the I-40 corridor if everything lined up somehow.
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Hi Eric. Quick question. Will you have a good idea by this time next month on the most likely scenario for winter? You did a good job last winter with explaining stuff and hopefully you will do it again
 
MRKEVIN7575 said:
Hi Eric. Quick question. Will you have a good idea by this time next month on the most likely scenario for winter? You did a good job last winter with explaining stuff and hopefully you will do it again
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I think this winter will follow the more canonical Nina paradigm with a colder & possibly snowier Dec-Jan with a heavy dose of +PNA in the means. Then, I think we'll turn milder in February with a stronger -PNA lean. I generally like last year, 2017-18, & 2021-22 as some recent analogs.

I don't feel that we'll be colder-than-normal in a winter mean sense, because it will only take one mild month to screw that up, but when it gets cold, it'll get real cold (& probably cold enough to snow) thanks to the +TNH dominant pattern.

How fast the eastern edge of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool advances across the Pacific could make things interesting for March & beyond. I can see us trying to go back for more cold and snow like we did in March 2018.

I'm generally pretty optimistic this year
 
MRKEVIN7575 said:
Hi Eric. Quick question. Will you have a good idea by this time next month on the most likely scenario for winter? You did a good job last winter with explaining stuff and hopefully you will do it again
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Gotta say, from what I've seen and read in recent years, Eric has been doing as well or better than anyone with seasonal forecasting, both in winter and with hurricanes...and backed with sound reasoning and the latest climate papers / research.
 
Latest Euro weeklies generally make sense to me.

Big +EAMT driven jet extension this week drives a trough over the Gulf of Alaska and it slowly retrogrades as November progresses w/ -EPO appearing late in the month into early December as this trough reaches the Kamchatka Peninsula. We could be cooking right off the hop this winter over the CONUS

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-globe-z500_anom_7day-1761091200-1762560000-1765065600-20-1.gif
 
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