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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Atlanta Hartsfield measured more snow than GSP, CLT, GSO and RDU combined! So how much did they get you ask? A whopping 0.1 on 12-26. All you can do is laugh.
While certainly not a snowstorm and most areas probably received nothing the official reporting station has had measurable snow this winter.
Sugar basically down to two runs today. Surprised they’re even open.
The 12z run of the GFS is a rehash of how our winter has gone.
So we have this at day 13. I think it looks good. Lots of potential. The high is not in the right position but there's already a cold airmass in place with lots of dew points in the single digits.
And then this at day 14. Cut city. La nina for the win again.
This is way out and there will be lots of changes, but I do hate this winter.
So we have this at day 13. I think it looks good. Lots of potential. The high is not in the right position but there's already a cold airmass in place with lots of dew points in the single digits.
And then this at day 14. Cut city. La nina for the win again.
This is way out and there will be lots of changes, but I do hate this winter.
Brian Brettschneider
@Climatologist49
·
2h
Bettles, Alaska, dropped to -44F this morning, only 1F shy of the coldest temperature of the winter. This map shows how often the coldest day of the winter occurs in March. Will parts of the southeast Lower 48 have their coldest day of the winter in about a week???
Brian Brettschneider
@Climatologist49
·
1h
Update: Bettles dropped to -45F. That means the coldest temperature of the season occurred in March (tie with February). Very impressive.
Usmeagle2005
Member
Got another moderator wannabe in the March Thread.??
Shaggy
Member
Seasonal trends are tough to beat sometimes. Scenario after scenario has gone this way all year. Count me as skeptical we see it change now.
On the flip side the west coast has had an EPIC winter.
Considering to do that we’d have to blow through the all-time record low temperature for March by a few degrees, I’m going to have to go with no. Up in the Arctic it’s different since February is usually their coldest month and they have a negative energy balance from the sun much longer than we do further south.
Brian Brettschneider
@Climatologist49
·
2h
Bettles, Alaska, dropped to -44F this morning, only 1F shy of the coldest temperature of the winter. This map shows how often the coldest day of the winter occurs in March. Will parts of the southeast Lower 48 have their coldest day of the winter in about a week???
Brian Brettschneider
@Climatologist49
·
1h
Update: Bettles dropped to -45F. That means the coldest temperature of the season occurred in March (tie with February). Very impressive.
Avalanche
Member
I guess I’m happy for them since their summer droughts and fires are so severe.
ATLwxfan
Member
Going to be hard. Maybe upper south has a shot. Low 30’s isn’t going to get it done for us.
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Brian Brettschneider
@Climatologist49
·
2h
Bettles, Alaska, dropped to -44F this morning, only 1F shy of the coldest temperature of the winter. This map shows how often the coldest day of the winter occurs in March. Will parts of the southeast Lower 48 have their coldest day of the winter in about a week???
Can’t wait to see that cold dumped into Southern California.
Brian Brettschneider
@Climatologist49
·
1h
Update: Bettles dropped to -45F. That means the coldest temperature of the season occurred in March (tie with February). Very impressive.
Remember when it was supposed to be highs in the 50s today, I do.
Last edited:
NoSnowATL
Member
Correct
Shaggy
Member
ATLwxfan
Member
It’s funny how a few days ago when the GFS was predicting a more subdued cold, everyone said it was a terrible model. Maybe it had a point?
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tazaroo
Member
I still think we will have a pretty good cold period coming up. I just checked the mjo forecasts and they still look great. High Amp face 8 in a few days possibly going over to phase 1. I know seasonal persistence and this winter has been an F but its hard to believe the mjo would get trumped when its this amped in the cold phases.
Yes, but it will be nice to get some normal temps for a week or so, maybe even slightly below normal for a day or two.
It isn't good long range. None of them are. But watching models for years now I've learned that if one model doesn't agree with a cold and snowy pattern, regardless of which model it is its usually the one right. Even if they all agree it's no guarantee in the SE. We are stuck in a rut and have been for years it seems where regardless of the indices the SE can't get sustained below average temps and reaching just average snowfall is a challenge. Forget about well above average snowfall.
ATLwxfan
Member
I hear you. I wouldn’t go as far as to say the model predicting warmth has the hot hand but it’s got to at least give you pause that there may be alternate interpretations of the data that may have some merit. I think it’s easy to say the GFS is a terrible model because you don’t like what it’s spitting out. The Canadian was big time cold and it has backed off. The EPS as well. Now the models may be delaying the cold - which ultimately leads to warming temps the more we get later into the month.
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Sugar Mountain reporting a 15-25” base now. I’m sure it’s more like 4-8”