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Wintry Winter 2019/2020 Early Call Maps

In all seriousness, we are staring down the barrell of a rifle with a likely Super El Nino much like the winter of 2015-16. In other words, if this oncoming Nino stays as strong and as long as Fall, there will be VERY little winter weather in the SE for 19-20
 
MichaelJ said:
In all seriousness, we are staring down the barrell of a rifle with a likely Super El Nino much like the winter of 2015-16. In other words, if this oncoming Nino stays as strong and as long as Fall, there will be VERY little winter weather in the SE for 19-20
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I currently see nothing encouraging for 19-20 as far as cold wx prospects are concerned. Nothing. However, more than likely there will once again be one significant winter storm in a portion of the SE as is common in a lot of El Niño winters.
 
MichaelJ said:
In all seriousness, we are staring down the barrell of a rifle with a likely Super El Nino much like the winter of 2015-16. In other words, if this oncoming Nino stays as strong and as long as Fall, there will be VERY little winter weather in the SE for 19-20
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This El Nino probably won't be that strong but we're more likely to contend with a moderate or strong event. Even going back into the 19th century, there's too much internal variability to assume that one phase/intensity of ENSO = ______ for winter snowfall in the SE US. If you were able to forecast the intensity and extent of large-scale temperature and precipitation anomalies perfectly, you'd still only be able to predict snowfall here with moderate success at the very best.

A Super El Nino or the lack thereof means virtually nothing in terms of making or breaking the SE US for snowfall.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This El Nino probably won't be that strong but we're more likely to contend with a moderate or strong event. Even going back into the 19th century, there's too much internal variability to assume that one phase/intensity of ENSO = ______ for winter snowfall in the SE US. If you were able to forecast the intensity and extent of large-scale temperature and precipitation anomalies perfectly, you'd still only be able to predict snowfall here with moderate success at the very best.

A Super El Nino or the lack thereof means virtually nothing in terms of making or breaking the SE US for snowfall.
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Using extensive Atlanta based stats and looking at all wintry precip for all winters since 1878-9, I 100% agree with you on the lack of correlation between large scale liquid equivalent precip and wintry as I found essentially none. However, I most certainly found a pretty significant correlation between DJF temps and wintry precip: 67%/50%/33% of cold/near normal/mild winters had above average wintry precip in Atlanta.

As I have said here before, precip isn’t important but temperatures are as there is twice as much chance for above average wintry precip at Atlanta in cold vs mild winters based on looking at about 140 winters. Then again, that’s still nowhere near a 100% correlation. It qualifies as a significant partial correlation though.
 
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GaWx said:
Using extensive Atlanta based stats and looking at all wintry precip for all winters since 1878-9, I 100% agree with you on the lack of correlation between large scale liquid equivalent precip and wintry as I found essentially none. However, I most certainly found a pretty significant correlation between DJF temps and wintry precip: 67%/50%/33% of cold/near normal/mild winters had above average wintry precip in Atlanta.

As I have said here before, precip isn’t important but temperatures are as there is twice as much chance for above average wintry precip at Atlanta in cold vs mild winters based on looking at about 140 winters. Then again, that’s still nowhere near a 100% correlation. It qualifies as a significant partial correlation though.
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I wasn't clear in my post but yeah I was speaking more to the temp regime than snow because that is ALWAYS a crap shoot in the SE. If I had put wintry precipitaton instead of weather then it would be somewhat presumptious to try and forecast the amount of frozen precip we could get because of the plethora of factors that have to get together here in the SE for SN, FR and S
 
Webberweather53 said:
This El Nino probably won't be that strong but we're more likely to contend with a moderate or strong event. Even going back into the 19th century, there's too much internal variability to assume that one phase/intensity of ENSO = ______ for winter snowfall in the SE US. If you were able to forecast the intensity and extent of large-scale temperature and precipitation anomalies perfectly, you'd still only be able to predict snowfall here with moderate success at the very best.

A Super El Nino or the lack thereof means virtually nothing in terms of making or breaking the SE US for snowfall.
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All I care about after this winter kerfuffle , is the MJO. Apparently, that’s always the most important driver! It doesn’t matter how good all other indices look on paper, if the mofo MJO doesn’t get to phases 8,1,2, we’re screwed!
 
Tarheel1 said:
All I care about after this winter kerfuffle , is the MJO. Apparently, that’s always the most important driver! It doesn’t matter how good all other indices look on paper, if the mofo MJO doesn’t get to phases 8,1,2, we’re screwed!
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But then some “but” factor will come up. “Well, phase 8 between January 6-12 actually correlates to warmth and drought conditions” fml
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
But then some “but” factor will come up. “Well, phase 8 between January 6-12 actually correlates to warmth and drought conditions” fml
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It’ll probably stay in 8,1,2 from April-September, if that correlates to endless 95 degree days and weeks of drought!?
 
In my opinion, if we don't get rid of the heat in the ocean waters off the SE coast then you can copy and paste the past 2 winters (SER) for the next decade.
 
I would like someone with some time on their hands to research winters that followed a winter that featured a early one hitter and done. Maybe look at the DC or New England region too for a bigger sample. Criteria is December or sooner and 6-12”+. I think we may be screwed winter 2019|2020 if my intial research is correct.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm starting to think that we actually have no idea what events cause the conditions to occur that actually lead to a cold southeast...or worse yet, no idea what actual conditions lead to a cold southeast.
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I've been saying this for a while.
 
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