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Wintry Winter 2019/2020 Early Call Maps

Here’s a map I made while sitting on the porcelain throne earlier. I hope it stands the test of time View attachment 17619

That actually looks more like a typical La Niña and, therefore, could end up being 2nd El Niño winter in a row like that. If the Atlantic just off the SE US doesn’t finally cool, I could see this type of map verifying well.
 
Let me see how far off I am;

December:
It'll be cold to start and then warm up. No snow for anyone outside the mountains and maybe a TN event only up to 2 or so inches. It'll be cold rain for a majority of the month because it has been all year practically except for late summer when it'll dry out for maybe a couple weeks and we have heavy heat. Temp, +3-5F, RF, 150%.

January:
Light 2 to 4 inch storm for the upper south and then maybe a weak coastal too later in the month. Vast warm up in between and we break even on temps but we start to dry out finally. A massive arctic outbreak could occur too in the early or late part of the month bringing teens to single digits to the upper south and a hard freeze to Florida. Temp, -1 to 1F, RF 80%.

February:
We are dry except for a clipper here and there that only brings flurries. Cold as well. We torch at the end of the month however and near mid 70s for a day or two across the SE. Temp, -2 to 2, RF 50%.

Let's see if I'm way off next year.
 
Next Winter will break the above normal streak, take it to the bank.
Also I expect a mid to late December threat somewhere in the SE, northern parts favored (northern Ga, upstate SC, Tn and NC)
January will then begin with above normal temps (briefly) and there will be all kinds of gnashing of teeth and complaining of another failed Winter, but...
Mid Jan thru mid Feb will deliver big time, a brief return to normal before the end of Feb produces again. The streak will be broken and every member on this board will at some point see some form of frozen precip. Booyah, bring it, I'm ready.....
 
The one... and only...
View attachment 17640
Of course he will. If he makes an above average winter map for the SE you know it'll be a great winter. But of course I already know he is going to center the cold on the east and IF we do well, he will only say his pioneer "Model" worked again like the broken clock it is.
 
Next Winter will break the above normal streak, take it to the bank.
Also I expect a mid to late December threat somewhere in the SE, northern parts favored (northern Ga, upstate SC, Tn and NC)
January will then begin with above normal temps (briefly) and there will be all kinds of gnashing of teeth and complaining of another failed Winter, but...
Mid Jan thru mid Feb will deliver big time, a brief return to normal before the end of Feb produces again. The streak will be broken and every member on this board will at some point see some form of frozen precip. Booyah, bring it, I'm ready.....
In all fairness, this winter saw some very cold temps in the US. Look at the Pacific NW over to Montana and the Dakotas. All-time records were broken for the duration of the cold and negative departures. It just wasn't the right pattern to bring that cold southward due to the pesky SER. This is something you would expect in a La-Nina winter not an El-Nino. Everything we thought we knew about LR weather forecasting was challenged this winter. I agree with Metwannabe here. I say give us another shot at an El-Nino next winter, and see what happens. One thing is for sure, the subtropical jet delivered big-time. If that southeast ridge would not have been so prominent, we would have seen some nice miller A's.
 
Temps
yQm4rA3PcNkzB2oDIpx05Fc9KSo94LIyDk3vMPTgpc1mZ2vNXp2vxFDxqL9YsXlOYhXFPSeYnFDyxZ9PKyNZ6fHXIZaHSwwwHeVhEywOxvgfrSt1fmKN6L5F1SIxyFIQFDfDEhikjUH71uLLME08rAPJHsz1Sg5zx-YWnNBp2DXN8nOEpjDPJ4N9km1JvBNlROse-fEIJIAj4UR56qw1J408H0aCXzzmeUOIruQUfeMd3CB3dPiNRHmw2j4paaZN2uEX2Ivo62CmRO7SLkRYlIZvFLwDT9VRPqTFI1yfDfxaOSWrlnEjXbpGYZMMdWH3y0la1Qr_kCpF5nGI7TcWiNSG_3om9i-OLeD4UiGXbZHLz4hZLU-4bDTSV9k8ujWhC_pkOJhs4VCgq5nxGU-G-z8S3BFguyfhyMG6drShxsWOquj-p6mUzBs53deLqLLwyMKM3nlmXGEYFnAd_vb7p7NmO7g-IgKCXxR9lT5UiteB0BwNFiBWSVsHKhXCnOO_TuBtXb2qdflCzm7KpdcCGSHu-ijRNNcRIbjJYvCuijJE03MIiuV3T6CfIRC_JFboOJEwRSB9YXd2ao55EwXNCkgUj2rt4PPGOMqZ_j-PPw7iS9c89wkmvuvCm0BVN1BKHIWqCvT0IFXHaZO_GLcNM287iV9Ddws=w920-h569-no

Percent of avg snowfall (made sure to give Seattle snow!)
ZkC_bhuKR-dpYz_q-HSCFpALshHwRBEowS4rij6xhBRIxK8oEz-pUswNM5nDnANcd4QFeJIFP9CIxWOvQwPPHE_AB9gSneNQvYxSDeLmbeEkup3FhbDnB9jYuKwADb9TCaMCcZdodBJbACIsOZ-0H61UgVzrycTQ5o4k99sk29npNn_nrennw4WYsdk5GYObAjqu4TWW-q85OntwWKPM5TK4nrBmyRA_ta5oTPOiMkctbNJZ-tYj781BGM3t36iLAansu4X6DJlfWLb94O7m9ILlOfB5M0tpoAfoR63KjIPHgsZ9EIJn7OKHnSMAya6sos1Hf0MgIJIHIEfMBzhoc5bLgddpbAJ3iicgEeV5KOSslrDpp5Mu83kX0HOi7CytqlXy41juFuL-CBX53TBt6yCe-6itTIVR5qI2xtX-AUnjsgZDcgba6xD8IMEXDFS08yoY0jtka-md2pYHyrCYQ2mVViitHN0K_xK9uNDaKBdufqV2ETM496BhqKjmTj-twnFZ4tGuC7DeKAzsELlv37Ob_HPONNbzPczE15NnaILhjLNUfwhukagr1TQ6x1fx0mjtM7UFr8Vglpu0LDZDnM2sGDkYIBhKPGuDTC-I03Zyp7z9-rqQHMI4hTXN1Ang3KQNKHUIsXo0iXdOscTtib90KUUztyk=w920-h569-no
 
Skrew the rest of the CONUS ... N FL is getting buried, not by a dusting but by 10" that sticks for a week ... low out of Cuba very slowly rides the PV and deathly cold follows and well ... :eek: ... and the SER is dead ... ;)
 
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I hope next year is backloaded, that’ll be 3 in a row! And the first two, have been amazeballs!
 
Here's my winter 2019-20 snowfall forecast for Wake County. If you live north and west of Wake, assume at least 12". If you live south and east of Wake, assume less than 1" at most.
View attachment 17762
Ive never seen a more accurate forecast in my life. You could just copy paste that until the end of time and have a 75% success rate

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