Here’s a map I made while sitting on the porcelain throne earlier. I hope it stands the test of time 
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Wintry Winter 2019/2020 Early Call Maps
- Thread starter Jimmy Hypocracy
- Start date
That actually looks more like a typical La Niña and, therefore, could end up being 2nd El Niño winter in a row like that. If the Atlantic just off the SE US doesn’t finally cool, I could see this type of map verifying well.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Let me see how far off I am;
December:
It'll be cold to start and then warm up. No snow for anyone outside the mountains and maybe a TN event only up to 2 or so inches. It'll be cold rain for a majority of the month because it has been all year practically except for late summer when it'll dry out for maybe a couple weeks and we have heavy heat. Temp, +3-5F, RF, 150%.
January:
Light 2 to 4 inch storm for the upper south and then maybe a weak coastal too later in the month. Vast warm up in between and we break even on temps but we start to dry out finally. A massive arctic outbreak could occur too in the early or late part of the month bringing teens to single digits to the upper south and a hard freeze to Florida. Temp, -1 to 1F, RF 80%.
February:
We are dry except for a clipper here and there that only brings flurries. Cold as well. We torch at the end of the month however and near mid 70s for a day or two across the SE. Temp, -2 to 2, RF 50%.
Let's see if I'm way off next year.
December:
It'll be cold to start and then warm up. No snow for anyone outside the mountains and maybe a TN event only up to 2 or so inches. It'll be cold rain for a majority of the month because it has been all year practically except for late summer when it'll dry out for maybe a couple weeks and we have heavy heat. Temp, +3-5F, RF, 150%.
January:
Light 2 to 4 inch storm for the upper south and then maybe a weak coastal too later in the month. Vast warm up in between and we break even on temps but we start to dry out finally. A massive arctic outbreak could occur too in the early or late part of the month bringing teens to single digits to the upper south and a hard freeze to Florida. Temp, -1 to 1F, RF 80%.
February:
We are dry except for a clipper here and there that only brings flurries. Cold as well. We torch at the end of the month however and near mid 70s for a day or two across the SE. Temp, -2 to 2, RF 50%.
Let's see if I'm way off next year.
This is so easy. I'm going to go ahead and issue the final product:
Just a little tweak .....
I’m kind of disappointed how you nailed the I85 corridor the way you did down into MBY
You fringe me perfectly and I’m upsetWell we won't get this. I wonder who will forecast this come this fall.
For temps I would go with something like this. It's the drive for 5...5th winter in a row of above normal temps.
For temps I would go with something like this. It's the drive for 5...5th winter in a row of above normal temps.
Next Winter will break the above normal streak, take it to the bank.
Also I expect a mid to late December threat somewhere in the SE, northern parts favored (northern Ga, upstate SC, Tn and NC)
January will then begin with above normal temps (briefly) and there will be all kinds of gnashing of teeth and complaining of another failed Winter, but...
Mid Jan thru mid Feb will deliver big time, a brief return to normal before the end of Feb produces again. The streak will be broken and every member on this board will at some point see some form of frozen precip. Booyah, bring it, I'm ready.....
Also I expect a mid to late December threat somewhere in the SE, northern parts favored (northern Ga, upstate SC, Tn and NC)
January will then begin with above normal temps (briefly) and there will be all kinds of gnashing of teeth and complaining of another failed Winter, but...
Mid Jan thru mid Feb will deliver big time, a brief return to normal before the end of Feb produces again. The streak will be broken and every member on this board will at some point see some form of frozen precip. Booyah, bring it, I'm ready.....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Of course he will. If he makes an above average winter map for the SE you know it'll be a great winter. But of course I already know he is going to center the cold on the east and IF we do well, he will only say his pioneer "Model" worked again like the broken clock it is.
Can we get a “Yes, Maybe One Day”
Cad Wedge NC
Member
In all fairness, this winter saw some very cold temps in the US. Look at the Pacific NW over to Montana and the Dakotas. All-time records were broken for the duration of the cold and negative departures. It just wasn't the right pattern to bring that cold southward due to the pesky SER. This is something you would expect in a La-Nina winter not an El-Nino. Everything we thought we knew about LR weather forecasting was challenged this winter. I agree with Metwannabe here. I say give us another shot at an El-Nino next winter, and see what happens. One thing is for sure, the subtropical jet delivered big-time. If that southeast ridge would not have been so prominent, we would have seen some nice miller A's.
MichaelJ
Member
The SER is kind of like your Mother-in-law, says she is coming for a couple of days but you have to end up calling the law after 2 months to eject her
Temp avg forecast, easy 
RollTide18
Member
There will be a lot of bathtub sloshing
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Temps
Percent of avg snowfall (made sure to give Seattle snow!)
Percent of avg snowfall (made sure to give Seattle snow!)
pcbjr
Member
Skrew the rest of the CONUS ... N FL is getting buried, not by a dusting but by 10" that sticks for a week ... low out of Cuba very slowly rides the PV and deathly cold follows and well ... 
... and the SER is dead ...
... and the SER is dead ...
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I hope next year is backloaded, that’ll be 3 in a row! And the first two, have been amazeballs!
Here's my winter 2019-20 snowfall forecast for Wake County. If you live north and west of Wake, assume at least 12". If you live south and east of Wake, assume less than 1" at most.
Ive never seen a more accurate forecast in my life. You could just copy paste that until the end of time and have a 75% success rate
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
MichaelJ
Member
In all seriousness, we are staring down the barrell of a rifle with a likely Super El Nino much like the winter of 2015-16. In other words, if this oncoming Nino stays as strong and as long as Fall, there will be VERY little winter weather in the SE for 19-20
I currently see nothing encouraging for 19-20 as far as cold wx prospects are concerned. Nothing. However, more than likely there will once again be one significant winter storm in a portion of the SE as is common in a lot of El Niño winters.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This El Nino probably won't be that strong but we're more likely to contend with a moderate or strong event. Even going back into the 19th century, there's too much internal variability to assume that one phase/intensity of ENSO = ______ for winter snowfall in the SE US. If you were able to forecast the intensity and extent of large-scale temperature and precipitation anomalies perfectly, you'd still only be able to predict snowfall here with moderate success at the very best.
A Super El Nino or the lack thereof means virtually nothing in terms of making or breaking the SE US for snowfall.
Using extensive Atlanta based stats and looking at all wintry precip for all winters since 1878-9, I 100% agree with you on the lack of correlation between large scale liquid equivalent precip and wintry as I found essentially none. However, I most certainly found a pretty significant correlation between DJF temps and wintry precip: 67%/50%/33% of cold/near normal/mild winters had above average wintry precip in Atlanta.
As I have said here before, precip isn’t important but temperatures are as there is twice as much chance for above average wintry precip at Atlanta in cold vs mild winters based on looking at about 140 winters. Then again, that’s still nowhere near a 100% correlation. It qualifies as a significant partial correlation though.
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MichaelJ
Member
I wasn't clear in my post but yeah I was speaking more to the temp regime than snow because that is ALWAYS a crap shoot in the SE. If I had put wintry precipitaton instead of weather then it would be somewhat presumptious to try and forecast the amount of frozen precip we could get because of the plethora of factors that have to get together here in the SE for SN, FR and S
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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All I care about after this winter kerfuffle , is the MJO. Apparently, that’s always the most important driver! It doesn’t matter how good all other indices look on paper, if the mofo MJO doesn’t get to phases 8,1,2, we’re screwed!
Brent
Member
if we get another super el nino I swear
that's what started this snowless crap around here
that's what started this snowless crap around here
My guess we will have more cold spells with less rain.
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But then some “but” factor will come up. “Well, phase 8 between January 6-12 actually correlates to warmth and drought conditions” fml
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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It’ll probably stay in 8,1,2 from April-September, if that correlates to endless 95 degree days and weeks of drought!?
I'm starting to think that we actually have no idea what events cause the conditions to occur that actually lead to a cold southeast...or worse yet, no idea what actual conditions lead to a cold southeast.
In my opinion, if we don't get rid of the heat in the ocean waters off the SE coast then you can copy and paste the past 2 winters (SER) for the next decade.
I would like someone with some time on their hands to research winters that followed a winter that featured a early one hitter and done. Maybe look at the DC or New England region too for a bigger sample. Criteria is December or sooner and 6-12”+. I think we may be screwed winter 2019|2020 if my intial research is correct.
This is a 100 % right, yep, 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I've been saying this for a while.