Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion

[Brick Tamland]

WxSouth sounds bullish on Facebook.

For the record, I'd lean cooler than average Southeast to Midwest. And very active precip wise in a good chunk of the Southeast and MidAtlantic for the 3 month period December through February, with snow and ice paying a visit much more often, and to many more areas of the Southeast, than it did either of the last 2 Winters.

 

[Storm5]

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[ForsythSnow]

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Yeah, I can't take the NOAA maps too seriously. They have a good way to go for predicting a decently accurate winter forecast. One thing they like is an above average South that seems to show up a lot. Of course that happens more than a below average one, but missing half the country's anomalies is not good.

 

[Stormlover]

Yeah, I can't take the NOAA maps too seriously. They have a good way to go for predicting a decently accurate winter forecast. One thing they like is an above average South that seems to show up a lot. Of course that happens more than a below average one, but missing half the country's anomalies is not good.

You mean recent winters are more likely to be warmer, right? because that wouldn't be the case over many years or the average would be different.

 

[ForsythSnow]

You mean recent winters are more likely to be warmer, right? because that wouldn't be the case over many years or the average would be different.

Yeah, the last several winters have been really warm compared to many of the past.

 

[NWMSGuy]

I enjoy reading weather folklore and signs of Winter weather. Has anyone seen any signs from Mother Nature of an impending harsh winter?

 

[ForsythSnow]

I enjoy reading weather folklore and signs of Winter weather. Has anyone seen any signs from Mother Nature of an impending harsh winter?

Only the opposite sadly.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah, I can't take the NOAA maps too seriously. They have a good way to go for predicting a decently accurate winter forecast. One thing they like is an above average South that seems to show up a lot. Of course that happens more than a below average one, but missing half the country's anomalies is not good.

Here's how I did vs reality last winter... Not too bad. Ironically, in spite of producing one of the warmest winter forecasts, I still ended up being too cold lol.
https://ncwxmichaelmugrage.weebly.com/blog/category/winter-weather-outlook-20162017

 

[ForsythSnow]

Here's how I did vs reality last winter... Not too bad. Ironically, in spite of producing one of the warmest winter forecasts, I still ended up being too cold lol.
https://ncwxmichaelmugrage.weebly.com/blog/category/winter-weather-outlook-20162017

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I would be interested as well as many others as to what your idea is on winter later on. You were close last year as you said, so maybe this year you will be as well. The issue with last year was that convection and a bad QBO from what it sounds like, which could mean that we won't be 80 at Christmas and 70s through January. We had abd winters in 2012 and 2013, and the last two were horrible, so maybe we could have our break finally this year.

 

[Tarheel1]

I enjoy reading weather folklore and signs of Winter weather. Has anyone seen any signs from Mother Nature of an impending harsh winter?

I havnt seen the first wooly worm yet, probably been too warm for them to come out of the mountains!
Last year the fruit and berry crops ever super heavy and that winter was a torch. Not as heavy this year, so here's to hoping

 

[Brick Tamland]

I figure we're either going to stay warm and dry all winter, or the pendulum is going to swing back hard and it's going to be cold and with a lot of winter storm chances. Just seems our weather now is one of extremes, and the pattern holds on forever, and it takes something completely opposite to change it. Nothing seems "normal" anymore.

 

[NCSNOW]

Good info from RAH NWS: had some good stuff on NAO cycles only lasting 20 days before changing/resetting; Anyway just passing along. In weak Lanina need to root for a -NAO. Duh!

Pattern Interactions

Global patterns do not occur independently; they occur on overlapping timescales, and have important interactions that can magnify or diminish the effects of an individual pattern.

For example, the warm (positive) phase of the ENSO cycle, better known as El Niño, typically results in a more active southern jet stream, which ultimately leads to increased precipitation across the southeastern U.S. during the winter. When a negative NAO is in place during an El Niño winter, cold, Arctic air is transported towards the southeastern U.S. with enhanced precipitation potential due to the El Niño effect, and research at the SCO has found that the number of snow days in NC increase significantly in all four winter months.

The chart below shows the average number of snow days (with ≥1 inch of snow) in central and eastern NC, broken down by NAO and ENSO phase.

Our results found that a negative NAO combined with a positive ENSO phase (El Niño) resulted in the most snow days on average, with an increase of 25% (or more) in snow days for all four winter months.

A positive NAO combined with a negative ENSO (La Niña) resulted in the greatest decrease in average snow days. This is due to a lack of cold air (results of a typical positive NAO), and less active subtropical jet stream (results of a typical La Niña).

NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days, which suggests that the NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. The reason behind this is that the NAO directly impacts the large scale atmospheric pattern over the eastern U.S. on a daily timescale, whereas the ENSO pattern indirectly effects the eastern U.S. atmospheric pattern by altering global circulations, and does so on monthly to seasonal timescales.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Ok, here is my winter forecast. Done deal.

I'll pass on snow for the next ten winters if I could have her!!

 

[GaWx]

I'll pass on snow for the next ten winters if I could have her!!

If I made that deal, I likely wouldn't be giving up anything. So, I'll even make it 15 years.

 

[whatalife]

If I made that deal, I likely wouldn't be giving up anything. So, I'll even make it 15 years.

LMAO!


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[Metwannabe]

LMAO!


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Yeah he made me spit my covfefe out

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[SD]

Good info from RAH NWS: had some good stuff on NAO cycles only lasting 20 days before changing/resetting; Anyway just passing along. In weak Lanina need to root for a -NAO. Duh!

Pattern Interactions

Global patterns do not occur independently; they occur on overlapping timescales, and have important interactions that can magnify or diminish the effects of an individual pattern.

For example, the warm (positive) phase of the ENSO cycle, better known as El Niño, typically results in a more active southern jet stream, which ultimately leads to increased precipitation across the southeastern U.S. during the winter. When a negative NAO is in place during an El Niño winter, cold, Arctic air is transported towards the southeastern U.S. with enhanced precipitation potential due to the El Niño effect, and research at the SCO has found that the number of snow days in NC increase significantly in all four winter months.

The chart below shows the average number of snow days (with ≥1 inch of snow) in central and eastern NC, broken down by NAO and ENSO phase.

Our results found that a negative NAO combined with a positive ENSO phase (El Niño) resulted in the most snow days on average, with an increase of 25% (or more) in snow days for all four winter months.

A positive NAO combined with a negative ENSO (La Niña) resulted in the greatest decrease in average snow days. This is due to a lack of cold air (results of a typical positive NAO), and less active subtropical jet stream (results of a typical La Niña).

NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days, which suggests that the NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. The reason behind this is that the NAO directly impacts the large scale atmospheric pattern over the eastern U.S. on a daily timescale, whereas the ENSO pattern indirectly effects the eastern U.S. atmospheric pattern by altering global circulations, and does so on monthly to seasonal timescales.

This is interesting stuff. While it confirms that a - nao is needed for significant snowa +nao actually produces more snow days. I guess a lot can be said for front end hits to rain or snow to mix. These stats should make people feel a little better about +nao and la niña. It might not snow a foot but odds are snow will fall

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[Brick Tamland]

Good info from RAH NWS: had some good stuff on NAO cycles only lasting 20 days before changing/resetting; Anyway just passing along. In weak Lanina need to root for a -NAO. Duh!

Pattern Interactions

Global patterns do not occur independently; they occur on overlapping timescales, and have important interactions that can magnify or diminish the effects of an individual pattern.

For example, the warm (positive) phase of the ENSO cycle, better known as El Niño, typically results in a more active southern jet stream, which ultimately leads to increased precipitation across the southeastern U.S. during the winter. When a negative NAO is in place during an El Niño winter, cold, Arctic air is transported towards the southeastern U.S. with enhanced precipitation potential due to the El Niño effect, and research at the SCO has found that the number of snow days in NC increase significantly in all four winter months.

The chart below shows the average number of snow days (with ≥1 inch of snow) in central and eastern NC, broken down by NAO and ENSO phase.

Our results found that a negative NAO combined with a positive ENSO phase (El Niño) resulted in the most snow days on average, with an increase of 25% (or more) in snow days for all four winter months.

A positive NAO combined with a negative ENSO (La Niña) resulted in the greatest decrease in average snow days. This is due to a lack of cold air (results of a typical positive NAO), and less active subtropical jet stream (results of a typical La Niña).

NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days, which suggests that the NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. The reason behind this is that the NAO directly impacts the large scale atmospheric pattern over the eastern U.S. on a daily timescale, whereas the ENSO pattern indirectly effects the eastern U.S. atmospheric pattern by altering global circulations, and does so on monthly to seasonal timescales.

Well, a couple of years ago we had that combo that gave Raleigh the most number of snow days on average, and that's why everyone was calling for a lot if snow that winter. We don't even get to average. That's why I say what happened in the past and the indicies that are supposed to give us a lot if snow here doesn't seem to apply anymore.

 

[Brick Tamland]

This is interesting stuff. While it confirms that a - nao is needed for significant snowa +nao actually produces more snow days. I guess a lot can be said for front end hits to rain or snow to mix. These stats should make people feel a little better about +nao and la niña. It might not snow a foot but odds are snow will fall

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Actually, they said you did a -nao with La Nina to get snow here.

NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days

 

[Webberweather53]

Actually, they said you did a -nao with La Nina to get snow here.

NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days

Yep, even in a favorable pattern, Februarys during La Ninas (like this year) are typically hot garbage