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Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion

skywatcher said:
I actually remember that! The storm started on 12/31/63 and continued into 1/1/64. I was 5 years old, and my father had tickets to the Sugar Bowl, played at Tulane Stadium in NO. Alabama was playing Ole Miss. Bear Bryant was coaching Alabama; Bama's quarterback was Joe Namath at the time. But Joe had to sit that game out because he had been suspended by Bryant (don't know why).

Our family drove down from western KY, which had no snow at all. We started running into deep snow in TN and drove in it continuously until finally stopping for the night in Biloxi, MS. There were a few inches of snow in Biloxi, but nothing like we had driven through in AL and further north in MS. The interstate system didn't exist (or wasn't complete), so I don't know what route we took, but we were in deep snow for most of the trip from TN to Biloxi. Back then, you had no idea what the weather was like 50 miles from you. I'm sure many of you don't remember when we didn't have cell phones. ;)
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There were two major South-East winter storms in late December and early January that Winter. The 1st storm Memphis recorded 15" of snow on 12/22/63 and a record low of -13 on 12/23/63. So I'm curious which storm that video is referencing.
 
Snowman63 said:
There were two major South-East winter storms in late December and early January that Winter. The 1st storm Memphis recorded 15" of snow on 12/22/63 and a record low of -13 on 12/23/63. So I'm curious which storm that video is referencing.
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I have no idea about the video, I didn't post it. I was referring to the 12/31/63 - 1/1/64 storm.
 
Snowman63 said:
There were two major South-East winter storms in late December and early January that Winter. The 1st storm Memphis recorded 15" of snow on 12/22/63 and a record low of -13 on 12/23/63. So I'm curious which storm that video is referencing.
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But yeah, based on the 1/1/64 snowfall total map, looks like the snowstorm NWMSGuy was referencing must have been the 12/22/63 storm.
 
Snowman63 said:
There were two major South-East winter storms in late December and early January that Winter. The 1st storm Memphis recorded 15" of snow on 12/22/63 and a record low of -13 on 12/23/63. So I'm curious which storm that video is referencing.
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I was also curious! Great year of Winter to say the least!
 
I know all the talk about a negative PDO being doom and gloom for winter lovers, but wasn't the Golden Era for snow in the 1960s and 70s with a negative PDO?
 
My dad was a college football and basketball play-by-play radio announcer, and loved college sports. So the deep snow was just an annoyance, a challenge really, and by God we were going to make it to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl. And we did, come hell or deep snow. Here's a pic of Tulane Stadium the day of the game. :eek:

 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Well, it's Oct 1.... now all eyes turn to the snow cover index in Siberia. Not that it has been all that reliable in the past few winters but hey, at least it's something to track.
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I have given up on the Siberian snow cover. I would rather track the air on this side of the world and things that could pull cooler air this way than something that doesn't seem to influence us. The more snow they get, the less cold air comes over to our side of the world!
 
So did anyone else notice that the large cold pool just south of Greenland that's been around for a long time has disappeared?
 
I just saw MDA's winter outlook and it is much colder than the last 2 winters in the SE US with a near to slightly below DJF averaged out. D is warmer than normal, J is near normal, and F is colder than normal. In absolutes, J and F are pretty close since F's normals are warmer.

MDA's reasoning is that recent months of near record warm temperatures in the western tropical Pacific should allow convection there to rule the MJO. They mentioned MJO phases 4-7 being dominant. For the SE US to actually have a cold winter, you'd want MJO 7 to be most dominant of those 4 phases and for La Niña to not get too strong. If 4-5 were to dominate even without a strong Niña, that would probably favor another warm SE winter. They have a cold winter for the Midwest, which is consistent with La Niña and phases 6-7 dominating over phases 4-5. Ultimately in the SE US for best cold winter chances, we'd want phases 7-8 with low amplitude, which includes being inside the circle, and La Niña to
stay weak.

I'm still calling this winter a crapshoot if La Niña can stay weak.
 
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GaWx said:
I just saw MDA's winter outlook and it is much colder than the last 2 winters in the SE US with a near to slightly below DJF averaged out. D is warmer than normal, J is near normal, and F is colder than normal. In absolutes, J and F are pretty close since F's normals are warmer.

MDA's reasoning is that recent months of near record warm temperatures in the western tropical Pacific should allow convection there to rule the MJO. They mentioned MJO phases 4-7 being dominant. For the SE US to actually have a cold winter, you'd want MJO 7 to be most dominant of those 4 phases and for La Niña to not get too strong. If 4-5 were to dominate even without a strong Niña, that would probably favor another warm SE winter. They have a cold winter for the Midwest, which is consistent with La Niña and phases 6-7 dominating over phases 4-5. Ultimately in the SE US for best cold winter chances, we'd want phases 7-8 with low amplitude, which includes being inside the circle, and La Niña to
stay weak.

I'm still calling this winter a crapshoot if La Niña can stay weak.
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I'm more hopeful for this winter than most are, I think the negative QBO with the La Nina will be a lifesaver.
 
GaWx said:
I just saw MDA's winter outlook and it is much colder than the last 2 winters in the SE US with a near to slightly below DJF averaged out. D is warmer than normal, J is near normal, and F is colder than normal. In absolutes, J and F are pretty close since F's normals are warmer.

MDA's reasoning is that recent months of near record warm temperatures in the western tropical Pacific should allow convection there to rule the MJO. They mentioned MJO phases 4-7 being dominant. For the SE US to actually have a cold winter, you'd want MJO 7 to be most dominant of those 4 phases and for La Niña to not get too strong. If 4-5 were to dominate even without a strong Niña, that would probably favor another warm SE winter. They have a cold winter for the Midwest, which is consistent with La Niña and phases 6-7 dominating over phases 4-5. Ultimately in the SE US for best cold winter chances, we'd want phases 7-8 with low amplitude, which includes being inside the circle, and La Niña to
stay weak.

I'm still calling this winter a crapshoot if La Niña can stay weak.
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Really great input Larry! I believe we are headed towards a weak La Niña. Still lots of variables to be looking for as we move into this La Niña.


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GaWx said:
I just saw MDA's winter outlook and it is much colder than the last 2 winters in the SE US with a near to slightly below DJF averaged out. D is warmer than normal, J is near normal, and F is colder than normal. In absolutes, J and F are pretty close since F's normals are warmer.

MDA's reasoning is that recent months of near record warm temperatures in the western tropical Pacific should allow convection there to rule the MJO. They mentioned MJO phases 4-7 being dominant. For the SE US to actually have a cold winter, you'd want MJO 7 to be most dominant of those 4 phases and for La Niña to not get too strong. If 4-5 were to dominate even without a strong Niña, that would probably favor another warm SE winter. They have a cold winter for the Midwest, which is consistent with La Niña and phases 6-7 dominating over phases 4-5. Ultimately in the SE US for best cold winter chances, we'd want phases 7-8 with low amplitude, which includes being inside the circle, and La Niña to
stay weak.

I'm still calling this winter a crapshoot if La Niña can stay weak.
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Well there's a shocker. Another December above normal. I think that would be our 7th straight AN December. I'm about to just write off December as a winter month.
 
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