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Ukraine

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Gazprom cuts off all gas supply to Europe through Ukraine

Europe pointing fingers at Russia for Nord Stream sabotage - Washington Post

GERMAN REGULATOR TO SET UP CRISIS CENTER FOR POWER SHORTAGES

Russia's ambassador to Washington: The United States is approaching a dangerous edge by allowing Ukraine to bomb the referendum areas.
 
NEW: Reports are circulating that several of the UK's largest pension funds are becoming insolvent, due to margin calls that cannot be met. The Bank of England's response is to return to QE, which will only drive inflation higher and drag the value of the pound down further.
 
Snowfan said:
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Really doesn't instill confidence. Reminds me of this below.

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“The 300,000 [reservists that Defense Minister Shoigu said would be mobilized] are just a distraction. Now it’s partial, but then there will be mass mobilization, and after that tactical nuclear weapons," predicted one source close to the government.
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So summed up in the Putin video above, he is saying "they threatened me with nukes first". The same classic game they have always played when they are getting their butts kicked and want to scare people with threats of nuclear weapons.
 
Shawn said:
So summed up in the Putin video above, he is saying "they threatened me with nukes first". The same classic game they have always played when they are getting their butts kicked and want to scare people with threats of nuclear weapons.
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Putin's a loose cannon
 

Institute for the Study of War

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not threaten an immediate nuclear attack to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensives into Russian-occupied Ukraine during his speech announcing Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory. Putin announced Russia’s i
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
 
Snowfan said:
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So what does this mean in the long term. Will Russia be able to overcome the last month of major losses? All the ammo depots that were targeted, troops retreating and leaving behind equipment they would have needed to mount a return offensive, the mobilization being largely frowned upon inside Russia with a mass exodus of civilians. A battered beaten army with little to no morale, a pissed off nation that's now finding out how bad the war has gone spells a disaster for Putin.

Realistically what's his next move here? Sure he can declare these areas as Russian now but the Ukranians aren't gonna stop taking back what was rightfully theirs.

All the Russian war crimes being uncovered need to be prosecuted as well.
 
#RussianNuclear option. My thoughts.
Inspired by ⁦@nashaniva⁩ article. Thank you.

??source quotes ⁦@Forbes⁩ (F) on ?? options with tactical #nuclear strike.
I disagree.

Западный эксперт назвал место в Украине, куда Россия может нанести ядерный удар
https://nashaniva.com/ru/300225

(F) says #Putin most likely to hit a military formation or logistics center. I disagree, because it would mean a ground level strike followed by a significant contamination. Putin knows the strategic consequences. Hence a high altitude nuclear explosion is much more likely.

RVSN will not be used because this is the global reach weapon threatening NATO/USA, not ??. And would trigger a US/NATO critical defcon level.
I wanted to say that (F) claim of the most powerful tactical nuclear yield in Russia is incorrect (100 kt mentioned), but I can’t.

Reportedly Kalibr missile can carry a warhead with 50-200 kt. But in reality none expert can verify that. Trusting ?? sources with this sensitive piece of info is not a proper approach. (F) expert says Putin is unlikely to order the first nuclear strike on a major city in ??.

And this is what I can agree with.
But (F) pointing to Snake Island as a target is irresponsible. Furthermore it is too close to #Romania (NATO).
(F) is correct when says the more Russia is pushed away from Ukraine, the more cornered and hazardous would become Putin.

But not a word from (F) on the command chain. But it should be a part of the assessment. Like this:
Q1: who will carry out the strike? Navy? Army? Air Force? Most likely Air Force. Army delivery routes and ground transit security is a no-go and rather too risky.

See the ?? Air Force Commanding General profile & experience. And if anyone says Navy, see the Black Sea Fleet capabilities & Navy commander profile/experience.
Q2: when? The moment when Crimea is to fall. Not earlier.

Q3: what target? The most difficult question. I don’t have a crystal ball. I am not Gandalf. But I know, the decision will be made personally by Putin, nobody else.

Q4: will the order be executed? 50/50. Why so? Pilots have brains. But may be ideologically blind, thus 50/50. What is a bad forecast for Putin. He can’t be sure the order will be executed.

Sweet dreams, readers.
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Thread by @JanR210 on Thread Reader App

@JanR210: 🧵1/n #RussianNuclear option. My thoughts. Inspired by ⁦@nashaniva⁩ article. Thank you. 🇺🇦source quotes ⁦@Forbes⁩ (F) on 🇷🇺 options with tactical #nuclear strike. I disagree. nashaniva.com/ru/300225 2/n (F) ...…
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I'm updating the thread title to "Ukraine" given the conflict will extend beyond 2022. Still housed under Misc-Everything Else.
 
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