This is false.
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Ukraine
- Thread starter WeatherNC
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Good article for those interested in the military.
WXinCanton
Member
if and a big if, Russia does invade I can see China taking a long hard look at Taiwan and that is when ---- could hit the fan. I however do not think Russia will invade
From the article ^ I linked.
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In any case, regardless if the operation will be ordered, it will be fully prepared in the next few days. We could still see transfers of Airborne or National Guard troops to the staging grounds, as well as additional aircraft. However, it wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that by February 16, the much-hyped date of the operation commencement, all preparations may well be completed.”
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Conclusion
All of the above shows a picture of an unprecedented land, air and naval buildup, that also includes other militarized security forces. If, as many believe, all these actions are a bluff, then it is a particularly good (and quite expensive) bluff since it is indistinguishable from preparations to a real large-scale offensive.In any case, regardless if the operation will be ordered, it will be fully prepared in the next few days. We could still see transfers of Airborne or National Guard troops to the staging grounds, as well as additional aircraft. However, it wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that by February 16, the much-hyped date of the operation commencement, all preparations may well be completed.”
HSVweather
Member
It would not surprise me to see it start with a large cyber attack, EW, or maybe taking out key government officials, just my opinion. There are many approaches rather than a large ground force rolling in, missile, or air strikes. Interesting to me will be how much of a fight the population and the newly trained reserved forces will put up “IF” we get to that point. That could also get really messy as some areas would likely resist more than others. Really hoping there is no attack.
This RAND report from 2019 is interesting to read.
This RAND report from 2019 is interesting to read.
Whenever I hear our government start blustering openly about anything, I usually assume the opposite is true. They're going to end up not invading, and we're going to end up saying, "See, the reason they didn't invade is because we told everyone that's what they were going to do and they chickened out...bunch of Russian chickens."
smast16
Member
I don't think anything will happen. Putin already got the answer he needed. Biden blinked, and pulled troops.
Granted it’s the NY Times, but I have tracked the C4I flights and they have been robust.
“ WASHINGTON — In recent weeks, the Biden administration has detailed the movement of Russian special operation forces to Ukraine’s borders, exposed a Russian plan to create a video of a faked atrocity as a pretext for an invasion, outlined Moscow’s war plans, warned that an invasion would result in possibly thousands of deaths and hinted that Russian officers had doubts about President Vladimir V. Putin.
Then, on Friday, Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, told reporters at the White House that the United States was seeing signs of Russian escalation and that there was a “credible prospect” of immediate military action.
All told, the extraordinary series of disclosures — unfolding almost as quickly as information is collected and assessed — has amounted to one of the most aggressive releases of intelligence by the United States since the Cuban missile crisis, current and former officials say.”
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Sure, they are. ?
If this is actually reality, then this has been a very telegraphed war.
WXinCanton
Member
Ukraine president walks back statement that Russia will attack Wednesday - Breaking911
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that Russia will launch an attack on the country on Wednesday. Zelensky made the announcement on Facebook: Great people of a great country! There have been serious external and internal challenges in front of our country, which require...
breaking911.com
We are told that February 16 will be the day of attack. We will make it a union day. The decree has already been signed. This afternoon we will hang national flags, put on blue-yellow ribbons and show the world our unity.
We have one great European aspiration. We want freedom and are ready to vote for it. 14 thousand defenders and civilians who died in this war are watching us from the sky. And we will not betray their memory.
We all want to live happily, and happiness loves the strong. We have never been able to give up and we are not going to learn that.
Love Ukraine! We are at peace! We are strong! We are together!
Ukraine president walks back statement that Russia will attack Wednesday - Breaking911
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that Russia will launch an attack on the country on Wednesday. Zelensky made the announcement on Facebook: Great people of a great country! There have been serious external and internal challenges in front of our country, which require...
We are told that February 16 will be the day of attack. We will make it a union day. The decree has already been signed. This afternoon we will hang national flags, put on blue-yellow ribbons and show the world our unity.
We have one great European aspiration. We want freedom and are ready to vote for it. 14 thousand defenders and civilians who died in this war are watching us from the sky. And we will not betray their memory.
We all want to live happily, and happiness loves the strong. We have never been able to give up and we are not going to learn that.
Love Ukraine! We are at peace! We are strong! We are together!
This whole situation is bizarre. I highly doubt Russia invades, not sure what their end game is/was, other than to test US administration but if they do, it will be the most announced invasion in the history of invasions. Either Putin is that stupid, he thinks all Ukrainian military is just going to drop their weapons and surrender or they just bluffed the heck out of Biden and the rest of the world.
Downeastnc
Member
Russia cant so much as move a tent without the US knowing it.....I personally think the chances they go big and try to take the Ukraine is small, first its a pretty big overtaking and it will be costly for the Russians. The Ukrainians have thousands of modern tanks, modern artillery and rockets etc.....they can hit back hard. Russia would win but it would be a daunting if not impossible task to take and hold the Ukraine. Add to this the massive sanctions and economic impacts from having the US and EU shut down their money and trade etc....it would be a disaster for Russia.
This is all a power play to try and keep the Ukraine out of NATO, it will fail and Putin will have to accept it. Biden is probably over compensating a bit with the withdraw of personal and military because the Afghanistan screw up is fresh in their memories.
This is all a power play to try and keep the Ukraine out of NATO, it will fail and Putin will have to accept it. Biden is probably over compensating a bit with the withdraw of personal and military because the Afghanistan screw up is fresh in their memories.
Downeastnc
Member
There is a reason they let this drone run its ADS-B so flight radar could track it....at 54k feet they dont have to worry about other aircraft so this was on purpose......so while it appears the US is backing down they are quite capable of doing a lot of things to help Ukraine and hurt Russia without risking any US soldiers etc.
In case the wx is being considered in any way for any decision: The next 2 days look about as tranquil as can be with sunny and light winds thanks to high pressure though with increasing clouds late. Then storminess comes in with snow (850s below 0C) and pressure gradient related windiness per model consensus Thu/Fri:
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lexxnchloe
Member
I think Russia has already won this. All they need to do is keep talking tough while we keep saying an invasion is imminent as oil prices rise filling the Russian treasury. Keeping on the weather theme this is like the arctic invasion and super snow that keeps getting pushed back on the models.
Twitter thread
C4I has been sick, leave it at that. One has to imagine the RQ-180s are in theater. C-5s from Langley to the Baltics have been noted in the past 24hrs. Word is 22s, a quartet are in Poland. Same squadron that deployed to UAE.
Northrop Grumman E-8 Joint STARS - Wikipedia
Boeing P-8 Poseidon - Wikipedia
Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk - Wikipedia
RC-135U Combat Sent
The RC-135U Combat Sent provides strategic electronic reconnaissance information to the president, secretary of defense, Department of Defense leaders, and theater commanders.
www.af.mil
Observed in the past week in theater, with 22s, 35s, 52s, and heavy heavy lift capacity. C4I has largely replaced using RQ-4as squawking, heavily, with P-8a’s. Really a digital backbone of nodes.
Northrop Grumman RQ-180 - Wikipedia
Battle managers with complex computer simulations, similar to weather models.
Thread
Mason Dixon
Member
Anybody into geopolitics and our current state of readiness would enjoy this book, quick read that is written for the laymen
Amazon product ASIN B07W56RZCN
Amazon product ASIN B07W56RZCN
Thread
The intelligence being released so quickly is what's astounding to me. I think the crazy information war between the US and Russia is just beginning.
HSVweather
Member
Here are the State Department releases
Moldova:
Moldova Travel Advisory
Belarus:
Belarus Travel Advisory
All travel advisories can be seen here and sort as needed:
Travel Advisories
Also ELINTNews and IntelCrab
WXinCanton
Member
Russia confirms ‘partial’ withdrawal of troops from Ukraine border
Move could be sign of de-escalation but western officials say there are no immediate signs of Russian drawdown
www.theguardian.com
Russia withdrawing troops. What a shock.
and a good time was had by all.
US offers Ukraine $1B loan to support economy amid tensions with Russia
The United States has offered a sovereign loan guarantee to Ukraine of up to $1 billion to support the country’s economy as the Eastern European country prepares for a possible Russian invasion any…
nypost.com
Storm5
Member
A few . This is being blown out of proportion like it's a complete withdrawal
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Storm5
Member
But if I’m Putin and I really don’t have intentions of invading Ukraine; I withdraw troops very slowly. Poking as many eyes as long as I can.
Isn’t Russia just saying they are withdrawing troops? So who knows if it’s true.
smast16
Member
smast16
Member
Favors returned for Hunter?and a good time was had by all.
US offers Ukraine $1B loan to support economy amid tensions with Russia
The United States has offered a sovereign loan guarantee to Ukraine of up to $1 billion to support the country’s economy as the Eastern European country prepares for a possible Russian invasion any…
Yea, we might wanna wait for independent confirmation of troop withdrawals before taking their word for it.
Storm5
Member
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