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Ukraine

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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Opening up for a civil discourse on this topic with near time updates. This is the 60’s Cuban missile crisis at NATO’s side, I don’t think folks realize it. We will be heading to the Nordic countries for our 2022 vacation. I get Putin, he has a valid point. We overextended on the eastern Flank and Russia will course correct through Ukraine.
 
WeatherNC said:
Opening up for a civil discourse on this topic with near time updates. This is the 60’s Cuban missile crisis at NATO’s side, I don’t think folks realize it. We will be heading to the Nordic countries for our 2022 vacation. I get Putin, he has a valid point. We overextended on the eastern Flank and Russia will course correct through Ukraine.
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What countries do you think we overextended on? Are you referring to the Baltics or former Warsaw Pact nations currently in NATO?
 
Gotta love America, Nato, puttin if your in Ukraine. Along with old puttin a deal was made years ago if Ukraine got rid of all those nukes, Russia would let it be and Nato said they would be an ally. Folks forget most of the nuke arsenal of the old USSR was in Ukraine. Worst deal ukraine ever agreed to. Lost all leverage.

I hope Ukraine prevails, but theyll get crushed most likely and Tawain is next. Communism/Socialism is of zero value to the every day common man. Freedom is being attacked all over the globe today like never before. The beacon of freedom,USA , has been the only check and balance to prevent tyrrany from going rogue and not just being isolated to the eastern hemisphere. Sadly there is a growing class of folks in the western hemisphere who value communism/socialism over democracy and FREEDOM.
 
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I was talking to a friend about this earlier & I hope I'm wrong but we could be on the verge of ww3 & that's scary to think about & alot of people don't realize how dangerous the times are right now. If Russia invades Ukraine I have a gut feeling China will make a move on Taiwan & all hell is really going to break loose.
 
The US has surged assets in to Eastern Europe and at last count 14 -747s to Kiev, the tonnage is crazy.

We heard the 22s here in Eastern NC this last week, including F-15s from Johnson.

This appears to be the deployment of 8 from Langley to UAE yesterday.

 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
What countries do you think we overextended on? Are you referring to the Baltics or former Warsaw Pact nations currently in NATO?
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I think it’s the Baltics, but also NATO as a whole, it expanded rapidly over the past 10-20 years. In the end NATO will be stronger, barring an all out war with Russia which no one wants.
 
One of my preferred information sources on Twitter, especially for those who like aircraft.



www.af.mil

RC-135U Combat Sent

The RC-135U Combat Sent provides strategic electronic reconnaissance information to the president, secretary of defense, Department of Defense leaders, and theater commanders.
www.af.mil
 
With this being a wx forum and with wx often being a big factor regarding war related decision making (ultimate example may be D Day), does anyone have any thoughts as to how upcoming expected wx in Eastern Europe (per models/forecasts) would play a role during, say, the next week or so? Has anyone seen the Euro and other models? I’d think this would be about as good a place for that kind of discussion.
 
I’m very convinced an invasion is imminent what that entails and how people respond we will have to see but with all this commotion and things going on at the border along with the warnings and canceling of flights going into Ukraine .. I’ve never personally seen anything really like that. Then again I’m also 21 years old so I’ve never really seen war or preparations like that so .. it will be interesting to see how this evolves
 
People overestimate Russian strength . A full scale invasion of Ukrainian is quite an insurmountable task . Then there is actually holding occupied territory .
 
Not a fan of Trump,but I remembered when the media said that Trump would be the one to start WW3 over North Korea/Iran. Meanwhile we are much closer to WW3 under Biden in just a year of his Presidency with the Ukraine/Russia situation than we have ever been under Trump. I have never war mongering on the ether side like this since the Cuban Missle Crisis(before the majority of us were even born). I'm really worried right now and lately I have been more dreams about WW3 starting, which isn't helping with my concerns.
 
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Lickwx said:
People overestimate Russian strength . A full scale invasion of Ukrainian is quite an insurmountable task . Then there is actually holding occupied territory .
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This goes along with a take from my dad that was interesting yesterday when I said that it seems as if America has decided to start calling out the next moves that Putin might make.

"I bet Russia does invade and loses, there is history of that happening."

Unless Russian soldiers step foot into a NATO country, the only thing that I suspect happens outside of the Ukraine is economic sanctions if this happens. That has the potential of being painful however even outside of Russia because crude is already uncomfortably high.
 
WTF
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This goes along with a take from my dad that was interesting yesterday when I said that it seems as if America has decided to start calling out the next moves that Putin might make.

"I bet Russia does invade and loses, there is history of that happening."

Unless Russian soldiers step foot into a NATO country, the only thing that I suspect happens outside of the Ukraine is economic sanctions if this happens. That has the potential of being painful however even outside of Russia because crude is already uncomfortably high.
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NATO would likely go into Ukraine to defend them. Questions is does this include USA Troops to?


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I read Kissinger’s Diplomacy book a few years ago. It was written in the early 90s but he called everything that Putin has done the past 10 years. Russians have been paranoid about having a buffer for centuries. He said if the US and it’s allies pushed too hard east in the vacuum left by the USSR then Russia would take back after a few decades.
 
Jessy89 said:
NATO would likely go into Ukraine to defend them. Questions is does this include USA Troops to?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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The US and NATO have already stated they will not directly defend a Ukraine invasion. That is why we are evacuating troops out of Ukraine now. It's precisely to prevent a scenario where direct fighting would ensue and stuff potentially snowballing out of control.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
The US and NATO have already stated they will not directly defend a Ukraine invasion. That is why we are evacuating troops out of Ukraine now. It's precisely to prevent a scenario where direct fighting would ensue and stuff snowballing.
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Yeah, a hot war with Russia is not in anyone's best interest unless forced, and since Ukraine is not a NATO country, you're more likely to see the western world just cut off Russia's oil exports. Which has the potential of being very painful if this transpires.

Now if Russian troops step foot in Poland, that's another story altogether.
 
Just saw an article that commercial flights over Ukraine airspace will no longer be insured. Likely means airlines will fly around to avoid issues, causing a loss of revenue for Ukraine. This combined with fears of war disrupting an already weak economy, I wouldn't be shocked if the plan was to never militarily attack Ukraine. Seems like the goal is to cause economic issues so that a puppet government can eventually be put in place.
 
15 day ensembles based on 12Z (0Z and other runs are similar):

1) Temperatures: AN dominates through the rest of Feb:

ecmen_12_2mtpdp_eu_dr-0015_0015.pnggfsen_12_2mtpdp_eu_dr-0015_0015.png

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2) Precip: BN 1-5; NN 6-10; BN 11-15:
ecmen_12_ppdp_eu_dr-0005_0005.pnggfsen_12_ppdp_eu_dr-0005_0005.pngecmen_12_ppdp_eu_dr-0005_0010.pnggfsen_12_ppdp_eu_dr-0005_0010.pngecmen_12_ppdp_eu_dr-0005_0015.pnggfsen_12_ppdp_eu_dr-0005_0015.png
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3) Snowfall: 1-5: light/under 1/2"

6-10 (see below) : heaviest near Belarus/Russia/Ukraine tripoint with up to 2-3"; Elsewhere, GEFS has little due to warmth though EPS has 0.5-2"

11-15: GEFS little to none due to dryness/warmth while EPS, which is not as warm or dry, has mainly 1-2"ecmen_12_sf_eu_dr-0005_0010.pnggfsen_12_sf_eu_dr-0005_0010.png
 
GaWx said:
15 day ensembles based on 12Z (0Z and other runs are similar):

1) Temperatures: AN dominates through the rest of Feb:

View attachment 113504View attachment 113505

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2) Precip: BN 1-5; NN 6-10; BN 11-15:
View attachment 113508View attachment 113509View attachment 113510View attachment 113511View attachment 113512View attachment 113513
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3) Snowfall: 1-5: light/under 1/2"

6-10 (see below) : heaviest near Belarus/Russia/Ukraine tripoint with up to 2-3"; Elsewhere, GEFS has little due to warmth though EPS has 0.5-2"

11-15: GEFS little to none due to dryness/warmth while EPS, which is not as warm or dry, has mainly 1-2"View attachment 113517View attachment 113518
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Lol. GFS and Euro with big differences for snow amounts long range for Ukraine. But which has verified better for the region this year??? ❄️??
 
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