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Turbulent April '23

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I know someone who is down on vacation near Ft Lauderdale now. The flooding looks crazy and those stats are insane. We can’t even get that much snow, and that’s with 10:1 ratios! ?
 
I know GFS has been bad but it continues to show some cool fronts coming through to the end of it's run. Of course there are run to run changes but it remains fairly consistent with these. For those of us that like the cooler weather, we may be able to keep the heat at bay, at least through the end of the month. We know the brutal heat will set in eventually.

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Thunderstorm's & rain here on the Beach this morning..

69F
.02 in the bucket at the moment..
 
Had a shower come through this morning. Now the sun is out and it's humid. Wonder if that will be the spark needed for storms this afternoon.
 
Outrageous rainfall rates right now here in Durham. Feels like I am in Ft Lauderdale. ?
 


Some perspective of how much rain they have gotten.



25.39" breaks the 24 hour rainfall record for the entire state of Florida. The former record was 23.28" in Key West during Hurricane Jeane (Nov. 1980).

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
930 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

...PRELIMINARY PRECIPITATION REPORTS FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS...

Fort Lauderdale 25.91 in 0700 AM 04/13 26.08N/80.14W
Hollywood 2.2 SE 18.16 in 0700 AM 04/13 26.01N/80.14W
Dania Beach 17.30 in 0910 AM 04/13 26.07N/80.15W
1 SSE Fort Lauderdale 16.73 in 0904 AM 04/13 26.10N/80.14W
Plantation 3.4 E 15.06 in 0700 AM 04/13 26.12N/80.21W
1 SSE Lauderhill 14.58 in 0909 AM 04/13 26.13N/80.20W
1 SE Lauderdale Lakes 12.60 in 0910 AM 04/13 26.14N/80.19W
 
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Looks like SE Florida could see another significant rainfall tonight into Monday night. HRRR trending towards stronger thunderstorms reaching the Coastal Broward County.

Looking at the latest hi-res model guidance and the 12Z MFL sounding, there will be potential for a
few strong to severe storms later today. Rich low-level moisture and diurnal heating will lead to plenty of instability in the
atmosphere. Model soundings show increased values of effective shear and MLCAPE this afternoon ,500mb temps will also be around -10 to -11C with modest lapse rates. The stronger storms will be possible mainly over the interior then spreading east to the east coast. Isolated strong to damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail will be possible. Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding,especially over areas that are still saturated and still trying to drain from the recent flooding event. While less confidence in tornado potential, there may be a chance for funnel clouds or a brief tornado with any cells that move towards and interact with the Atlantic seabreeze.


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