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Turbulent April '23

Hung around 54 all day yesterday. Looks to be about the same temp today but with heavier rain. Man, what I would give for a eastern trough to hang around like this during the winter or just half this long. More than 3 days would be nice. Used to happen a good bit in Winters past. 5 springs in a row in my area holding off the real heat till the last week of May. I'll take it every spring like this. Makes the sweltering summers just a tad shorter when they don't start till around Memorial day.
 
Arcc said:
Twelve years ago right now, who would have thought what the next twenty four hours would bring.
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Still bothers me to this day when I think about it how so many people died. I mean I knew it was gonna be really bad that night but like I never imagined that bad ever in this day and age with all the warnings
 
MHX hinting at sundays severe setup


By early Sunday a potent and deep upper level trough will spawn
low pressure development across the Deep South. This low will
then move quickly up the Eastern Seaboard later Sunday, and is
likely to deepen rapidly as it moves across NC. This will bring
another period of widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms, as
well as strong winds. A potentially significant severe threat
could develop if instability is sufficient and the current
track of the low, just inland of the forecast area, holds
 
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Why can’t we get severe setups in NC like we did in the 90’s to early 2000’s. Thunderstorms seem rare these days!
 
This is from the past 7 days but really most is from the recent rain this week. Boy that upstate bullseye really sticks out; been a few river flooding issues around. Then you have that huge gradient from 6+ down to less than .25 around Calhoun Falls. Looks like most folks got at least an inch or two around the region.

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NWS ILM on Severe chances..

Southern stream Gulf Coast States 5H s/w trof will lift toward
the FA late tonight. This as it begins to get pulled into a
rather expansive upper low that it itself is rotating over the
Great Lakes States. Will see moisture from both Gulf of Mexico
and Atlantic drawn into this system, with showers and
thunderstorms spreading northward to the ILM CWA by late this
evening, and eventually encompassing the entire ILM CWA during
the pre-dawn Sun hrs. The convection will have decent
directional and speed shear combined in the lower levels.
Dynamics associated with the approaching upper s/w trof will
compensate the lack of instability (night-time) and should see
some organization that may result in strong to possibly isolated
severe tstorms late tonight, moving onshore. At this point,
Marginal to Slight(Sun) SVR risk what SPC is illustrating looks
on target.

&&&

As for severe threat, it will come down to
instability, but looks like threat of damaging wind gusts will
exist and can`t rule out an isolated tornado with the enhanced
shear in the morning as low moves up from the south. SPC has our
area outlined in a marginal for SC to slight risk for NC zones.
The strongest convection should shift off the coast but
gradient winds will increase. Expect southerly winds up to 25
mph with gusts to 40 possible mainly close to the coast. May see
some redevelopment of storms in the aftn associated with cold
front, but it depends how much instability there is left after
morning convection. Overall, expect an active day of storms with
potential for torrential rain showers and strong gusty winds.
 
LickWx said:
I know … it’s happened to me before
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Same here. It's the worst.

On the flip side, there have also been times where I lucked upon the subsidence sucker hole with full sunshine while everyone else around is socked in stratus.
 
Creeks, rivers, and streams are wayyyyy up around here. Have gotten 5" through today and the creek behind the house is so far up you can swim in it vs it's usual ankle to chin deep depth. Could use some dry days, but hopefully we keep the below average like the models are showing for the next 10 days.
 
Tempest is about 20% short on rain.

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Average High: 70.5F
Average Low : 50.8F
 
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