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Tropical TS Sebastien

Snowfan

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A late-season invest has been designated.
A broad area of low pressure about 500 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms and strong winds on its northeast side. Gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical or
subtropical depression could form during the next two or three days
while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open
Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal
system after midweek and further development is not expected by that
time. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
S

snowcool776

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All the latest on Sebastien. possible OTS. Double whammy for Bahamas. Fingers crossed. šŸ¤žšŸ» :eek:
 
S

snowcool776

Guest
And also, more like a CAT3 Or 4 MAJOR hurricane, so watch this carefully. Kind of rare to see a hurricane late in the season.
 

Brent

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Sebastian?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered a little more than 200 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands continue to show signs of organization.
Although the surface circulation of the disturbance appears to be
gradually consolidating, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate
that it does not yet have a well-defined center. Additional
development is expected and a tropical or subtropical depression is
likely to form while the system moves northwestward and then
northward over the open Atlantic during the next day or two. The low
is forecast to interact with a frontal system by midweek and further
development is unlikely after that time. For more information, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 

Brent

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No hurricane but he's currently refusing to listen to the NHC

"There is not much that I can add that my predecessors have not
already addressed except to say that Sebastien does not know that
is November near Thanksgiving."
 
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