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Tropical TS Isaias

GaWx said:
Thanks. Good post. For ATL specifically, I’m not presuming it won’t have as big an impact as Opal. But I’m giving it low odds that it will be as bad. We know Opal was still a high end TS (almost still a H) when it went by in N AL due to a combo of a MH at landfall and extremely rapid motion inland (like Helene), I don’t expect this one to be that strong.
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Oh, I agree the odds are low. Something on the order of 10% or so. For the worst case to be realized, it requires the storm to undergo far more intensification than predicted. I'm always wary of RI with Gulf canes unless conditions are hostile, though.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
I wonder if this could be as bad as Opal in 1995. Major damage in Georgia from that storm.
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I was in my 1st year of college at Auburn so of course we threw a huge party for Opal lol. A tree landed on one of my roommates. He lived but we had to call his mom and tell her we didn't know his condition. That was an epic storm.
 
The storm with the name that can't be pronounced is getting its act together quickly. If it can continue to fight off the shear I believe it may reach borderline Cat 2 or 3 before landfall. The cloud towers look like they are beginning to wrap around the center and the center is becoming more well defined. It looks like the streak of at least one hurricane in the Atlantic/Gulf basins every year since 1914 is a sure bet to continue.
 
988 MB sonde.

Despite the pressure falls, it remains a TS, and I think it's unlikely the NHC will upgrade it to a hurricane at 11 PM since recon hasn't found winds to support it...so far.
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