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Tropical TS Danny

Snowfan

When NW trend?
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A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 600 miles
east-southeast of the Georgia coast. Surface pressures remain high
across the area, and significant development of this system is not
anticipated due to dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds. The
disturbance is expected to move westward today, and then
west-northwestward at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of
the southeastern United States by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
This is what was gawx was talking about earlier.
 
A loop that is too large to post here but that shows the strongest convection yet near the assumed LLC was just posted elsewhere with this comment by the guy who sometimes gets a bit too excited. So fwiw:

“Looks like the ULL low is moving just a little faster than the system. Opening up a pretty good outflow channel to the NW.”
 
2 PM TWO ups TC genesis chances from 20% to 50%:

1. Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate
that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles
east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface
pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and
thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional
development of this system will be possible later today, and
especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form
before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The
low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward
at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern
United States by late Monday. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
————————

My thought is that if they’re going to investigate it that it be today as it will be nearly onshore by tomorrow afternoon.
 
I know this thing will be weak. But it’s going to take people by surprise because there won’t be much warning. It’s Sunday and likely to make landfall tomorrow. Most people on the coast are unaware Of the potential tropical cyclone.


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I knew this thing would become something to at least start a thread about… I know at least @GaWx has my back in relaying what I’ve been seeing to everyone … I’ve never been on the coast for a tropical system impact like this … I hope it goes a bit north towards Charleston but it’s moving fast so
 
I knew this thing would become something to at least start a thread about… I know at least @GaWx has my back in relaying what I’ve been seeing to everyone … I’ve never been on the coast for a tropical system impact like this … I hope it goes a bit north towards Charleston but it’s moving fast so

Either a strong and quite wet TW (sharp axis) or a TD are most likely scenarios at landfall. Regardless, a wet (lots of heavy tropical showers causing localized flooding), breezy day tomorrow coastal SC/GA (windiest along SC coast).
 
Either a strong and quite wet TW or a TD are most likely scenarios at landfall. Regardless, a wet (lots of heavy tropical showers causing localized flooding), breezy day tomorrow coastal SC/GA (windiest along SC coast).

I’ll say this and I could be totally wrong. But how much time it spends over the Gulf Stream matters. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a weak tropical storm as this goes over the Gulf Stream which is usually pretty warm water.


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I’ll say this and I could be totally wrong. But how much time it spends over the Gulf Stream matters. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a weak tropical storm as this goes over the Gulf Stream which is usually pretty warm water.

It is booking pretty nicely and thus probably won't be over the Gulf Stream for more than a couple of hours along with moderate shear (average favorability).
 
I say the odds are higher to get a name vs not. It’s strengthened during dmin which is not normal. Usually they strengthen during dmax. I bet they (NHC) would love to name it to meet their forecast numbers and already have a plane ✈️ scheduled for tomorrow. My guess is a 40-45 Tropical Storm. Small chance it rapidly intensifies under 5% given Gulf Stream, climate change and favorable angle coming into the US could give it a few extra hours over water.
 
I say the odds are higher to get a name vs not. It’s strengthened during dmin which is not normal. Usually they strengthen during dmax. I bet they (NHC) would love to name it to meet their forecast numbers and already have a plane scheduled for tomorrow. My guess is a 40-45 Tropical Storm. Small chance it rapidly intensifies under 5% given Gulf Stream, climate change and favorable angle coming into the US could give it a few extra hours over water.

Yeah I sorta see it being 40-45mph at landfall


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Imagine waking up to a 75 cat 1 and landfall as a cat 5 that night in South Carolina what would happen would you even evacuate or just hunker down? Let’s debate because I wouldn’t order mass evacuation it just wouldn’t work with no notice
 
Imagine waking up to a 75 cat 1 and landfall as a cat 5 that night in South Carolina what would happen would you even evacuate or just hunker down? Let’s debate because I wouldn’t order mass evacuation it just wouldn’t work with no notice
Having lived in Charleston for 10 years, an evacuation at this point is unlikely for a cat 1. Most will stay anyway for a cat 1. They have to think it will be a cat 3 or higher before they will leave.
 
Lot of heavy rain incoming for Georgia beaches. Elsewhere hot and sunny app mtns due to sinking air on west side of a cyclone.
 
Looks like a South Carolina landfall well south of Myrtle with all the action on the southern sc coastline and Georgia
 
Need a tropical storm warning wow wake up people this is crazy get the people out of the water now!
 
I have friends and family in Myrtle going in the ocean get them out now
 
Just upgraded to a high chance Jesus Christ worse case scenario why not issue a tropical storm watch yesterday when it was peaking during dmin is a tale tale sign of tropical cyclone genesis plus warm Gulf Stream
 
Yeah if he wants to grow up to be Danny needs to get dressed real quick
With recon going they will name it to pad their numbers. It for sure will be post season tropical depression for the past two days to increase the ace for the season too.
 
I’m a bit speechless this is forecasted to become a TS and place Charlotte metro in the north east quad. Yet the tv met there said no impact. Not even the small chance of a rain shower with a weak spin up tornado? Spin ups happen from tropical storms it doesn’t take much.
 
Wonder what the inland Tornado threat will be. From about Columbia GSP Ne Ga northeast of that center during heating of the day. Really wouldn’t be shocked to see Tornado watches tomorrow even as far north as upstate sc ne Georgia


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Wonder what the inland Tornado threat will be. From about Columbia GSP Ne Ga northeast of that center during heating of the day. Really wouldn’t be shocked to see Tornado watches tomorrow even as far north as upstate sc ne Georgia


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That's what I was wondering about, too.
 
Mesoscale Discussion 1122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Areas affected...Coastal South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will be possible this afternoon
across the South Carolina coastal region as Tropical Depression Four
moves onshore. A watch is not likely due to low confidence in a more
robust tornado threat.

DISCUSSION...A few weak thunderstorms associated with the outer
bands of Tropical Depression Four have been moving across coastal
areas of SC over the past hour with only transient signs of
intensification. This is likely due to weak low and mid-level lapse
rates as sampled by the 12Z CHS sounding. However, temperatures are
warming into the low to mid 80s where cloud cover is minimal, which
may locally augment instability through the afternoon and lead to
some storm intensification. GOES visible and IR imagery show a
couple of additional convective towers developing inland as well as
offshore, suggesting that lift and instability remain adequate for
new development at least for the near term. Recent hi-res guidance
supports this idea, suggesting that another round of storms is
possible along the coast by mid afternoon, though confidence in this
scenario is low. The KCLX VWP sampled veering winds in the lowest
1-2 km, which is supporting around 100 m2/s2 ESRH along the coast.
The combination of sufficient instability and low-level shear will
support a low-end tornado threat through the afternoon. This threat
will likely be conditional on sustained mature convection, but the
transient nature of storms thus far and limited potential for
widespread convection point to low confidence in a robust tornado
threat. Trends will be monitored, but a watch is unlikely.
 
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I bet it’s very windy in that thunderstorm blowup.


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